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Football tips: Newcastle v Aston Villa
2.5pts Both teams 2+ cards at 19/20 (Betfair)
1.5pt Joelinton to be carded at 11/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.25pt Joelinton, John McGinn and Alexander Isak to be carded at 75/1 (bet365)
Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Home 7/10 | Draw 29/10 | Away 16/5
Can Newcastle replicate their stunning 22/23 Premier League campaign and again finish in the top four? Will Aston Villa continue on their trajectory under Unai Emery and challenge themselves? Those are just two of the questions that I've been trying to calculate the answer for this summer.
My initial thoughts are YES to the fist question and NO to the second, but this meeting of the two sides should give us more answers to make a more confident prediction.
The Magpies were sensational last term, ranking second in terms of expected goal difference (xGD) per game and third for expected points (xP), while the Villans overperformed greatly after the appointment of Emery, and struggled to create chances - ranking 12th on xGF per game - despite winning plenty of games.
It's going to be an intriguing contest at St. James' Park, with both sides stronger following decent summer transfer business, but preference is for the hosts.
They were excellent in general last season but especially at home. They lost just two of 19 and boasted the best home attacking process (2.45 xGF per game) in the league alongside the second best defensive process (0.92 xGA per game).
Newcastle will take some beating in my opinion, but the value lies elsewhere in this opening weekend fixture.
What are the best bets?
With the new, more stringent, rules in place this season, I think we could be in for a card-heavy encounter at St. James', so backing BOTH TEAMS 2+ CARDS appeals at a shade of odds on. The same bet is 1/2 in places.
The number of cards went through the roof across the EFL last weekend, and we should see similar in the Premier League as officials aim to clamp down on EVERYTHING.
Andy Madley is in charge of this one, and he averaged 4.0 cards per game last season when refereeing Premier League and Championship matches - an already high figure. If he takes these new rules as seriously as some of his counter parts then we could be in for a high card count.
While this is an opening weekend game, I think this game could be important for both of these sides. For Newcastle to stamp their 'we are still one of the big boys' authority and for Villa to highlight to the rest of the league that 'you need to take us very seriously'.
It will be hotly contested and very fiery, with these sides excellent for card backers last term. Newcastle averaged 1.60 per game to Villa's 2.10, but interestingly both sides drew a lot of cards from opponents as well (2.11 and 2.23 per game).
One player who looks overpriced to pick up a caution is JOELINTON.
The Brazilian was excellent last season for the Magpies, but entered the referee's book a whopping 12 times across 32 appearances - with his card per 90 average a staggering 0.40.
That means I was expecting his price to be somewhere around the 9/5 region for this game, but we are getting 11/4 and that simply has to be backed. Late challengers, serious 'housery' and disrupting play, Joelinton has them all in his armoury.
BuildABet
- Joelinton to be carded
- Alexander Isak to be carded
- John McGinn to be carded
A fun long-shot to cheer on is to back JOELINTON, ALEXANDER ISAK AND JOHN MCGINN to all be carded.
The case for the Brazilian has already been made, while Isak's price looked on the large side given the pressing Newcastle will do in this game. He was cautioned three times last season.
John McGinn saw yellow seven times last season and will be in the thick of the action, so is worth adding to build a longshot 75/1 punt.
Score prediction: Newcastle 2-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Team news
Eddie Howe has all of his new signings - Sandro Tonali, Harvey Barnes and Tino Livramento - available for this one, as he does his striking duo, Alexander Isak and Callum Wilson.
Newcastle will be without Emil Krafth, Javi Manquillo and Joe Willock due to injury though, with first-choice centre-back Fabian Schar is questionable.
As for Villa, Alex Moreno (hamstring), Emi Buendia (knee) and Jacob Ramsey (foot) are Aston Villa's main absentees. The latter's younger brother Aaron Ramsey is also ruled out as he nears a permanent switch to Burnley.
New signing Moussa Diaby is almost certain to start in attack alongside last season's top scorer Ollie Watkins.
Emery has experimented with a back three in pre-season, so could deploy a 3-5-2 system at St. James'.
Predicted line-ups
Newcastle: Pope; Trippier, Botman, Schar, Burn; Tonali, Guimaraes, Joelinton; Almiron, Isak, Barnes
Aston Villa: Martinez; Konsa, Torres, Mings; Cash, Kamara, Tielemans, Digne; McGinn, Diaby; Watkins
Match facts
- Newcastle are unbeaten in their last 14 Premier League home games against Aston Villa (W8 D6) since a 3-0 loss in April 2005.
- Against no side have Newcastle United won more Premier League games than they have against Aston Villa (24, level with Tottenham), while they've also beaten the Villans more often in their overall league history than they have any other opponent (71).
- No team lost fewer Premier League games in 2022-23 than Newcastle (5). Only four teams managed to beat the Magpies, with Unai Emery's Aston Villa being one of those sides in April (3-0).
- So far in 2023, only Manchester City have picked up more Premier League wins (17) and more Premier League points (53) than Aston Villa (13 wins, 43 points). Indeed, their haul of 43 points is already more than they picked up in the whole of 2022 (41).
- Newcastle forward Callum Wilson has scored 11 goals in his last 12 Premier League games, averaging a goal every 58 minutes in this run. Indeed, since the start of April, Wilson is the highest scorer in the competition overall (11).
Odds correct at 1700 BST (11/08/23)
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