League leaders Chelsea travel to Newcastle on Saturday, with the hosts still seeking their first win of the season. Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Over 2.5 Goals at 3/4 (General)
Newcastle are yet to really kick-start under their new owners, still without a win in the Premier League this season.
Defeat to Tottenham in the first game under the new regime was a dampener, but a 1-1 draw away at Crystal Palace last weekend demonstrated just how far the Magpies must come if they are to even think about challenging towards the higher end of the table, never mind stave off relegation.
Palace have been an improved model under Patrick Vieira this season, but even so Newcastle must have been targeting that game as an opportunity to gain their first victory of the campaign.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Newcastle 8/1 | Draw 4/1 | Chelsea 1/3
It was the home side though who were thoroughly dominant, bossing possession as well as creating far more chances than Graeme Jones’ men; Palace actually created four ‘big chances’ (chances with a probability of 35% or higher of being scored) in the game.
Defensively, the issues are rife at St James’ Park, with only Norwich registering more goals against so far this season – Newcastle conceding a massive 2.22 goals per game on average.
It is not just the goals, however, it is the volume of chances the Magpies are conceding as well. Again, only Norwich have posted worse expected goals against (xGA) figures this term.
The last thing Jones needs then is the visit of a side fresh from scoring seven goals against Norwich the weekend prior, as well as having beaten Southampton on penalties to book their place in the Carabao Cup quarter-finals in midweek.
Chelsea currently lead the way in the Premier League, but they still do not look to have hit top gear yet; a scary thought indeed.
Romelu Lukaku and Timo Werner remain sidelined for this fixture, but the Blues demonstrated against Norwich last Saturday their goalscoring prowess even without a target man, racking up their second-highest expected goals for (xGF) total of the season so far (2.91).
Chelsea are the league’s second top scorers, behind only Liverpool, and given Newcastle’s woes at the back, it is difficult to see Thomas Tuchel’s men not adding a couple more goals to their tally at St James’ on Saturday afternoon.
Chelsea have conceded just three goals this season, but that figure is a little misleading if you take heed of expected goals. The Blues are actually just the joint-seventh best defensive team in the league according to xGA, conceding chances equating to 1.34 per match, suggesting they have been perhaps fortunate not to have allowed more goals.
Edouard Mendy has played a key role in that – his save percentage of 96.2 is the highest of any starting Premier League goalkeeper this season.
It means that Chelsea, despite being the league’s lowest conceders, have not been as adept at limiting chances this season as they were last, and that could be all the encouragement that Allan Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson need.
Newcastle have failed to score on just one occasion this season, the same amount as Chelsea, while games involving the Magpies have averaged the joint-second highest goals this term (3.44) – Chelsea matches are at 2.89.
OVER 2.5 GOALS is odds-on, but it certainly should be, and in fact, it should probably be shorter than it currently is.
Backing 3/4 shots might not be everyone’s cup of tea, but this still looks a good price, and should be backed with confidence.
Newcastle v Chelsea best bets and score prediction
2pts Over 2.5 Goals at 3/4 (General)
- Score prediction: Newcastle 1-3 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1200 BST (27/10/21)
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