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Jake's predictions

Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 25/26 Matchday 28

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Thu February 26, 2026 · 4h ago

Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 375pts | Returned 374.73pts | P/L -0.27pts | ROI 0%

Football betting tips: Premier League

Friday 20:00 - Wolves vs Aston Villa

2pts Wolves most cards at 4/5 (Boylesports)

1pt Yerson Mosquera to be carded at 23/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power) - min price 15/8

Saturday 12:30 - Bournemouth vs Sunderland

2pts Alex Scott 2+ total shots at 13/10 (William Hill) - min price 5/6

Saturday 15:00

2pts Sepp van den Berg 1+ total shots in Burnley vs Brentford at 17/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 8/11

2pts Crysencio Summerville 1+ shot on target in Liverpool vs West Ham at 5/4 (BetVictor) - min price 4/5

1.5pts West Ham +1.0 Asian Handicap vs Liverpool at 13/10 (bet365)

0.5pt West Ham to beat Liverpool at 6/1 (General)

1pt James Garner 1+ shot on target in Newcastle vs Everton at 5/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 9/5

1pt Joelinton to be carded in Newcastle vs Everton at 13/5 (bet365) - min price 2/1

Saturday 17:30 - Leeds vs Man City

1pt Jayden Bogle 1+ total shot at 17/10 (Betway) - min price 6/5

***Sunday's bets to follow

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Last week was a mixed bag. Some good, some not so good. The decision to ladder was not so good and cost us 2.5pts as none of the higher lines got up, but we nailed the City vs Newcastle and Palace vs Wolves games.

Though don't get me started on the latter. Andre and Will Hughes did their jobs, and Jorgen Strand Larsen did everything to get booked, committing four fouls, yet he somehow escaped punishment. We were on him at 10/1 so that was a bitter blow.

Anyway, onto this week where there are plenty of short-ish priced fancies as well as some relegation-threatened underdogs to get onside.

Wolves vs Aston Villa

Wolves vs Aston Villa has become a real heated rivalry in recent years, in part due to the proximity in the midlands (21 miles apart), and the fact that the pairs' biggest rivals, West Brom and Birmingham, haven't been in the same division for a good while. This fixture carries a derby feel and the card tallies have followed that same trend.

Across the last nine head to heads, only one game has seen fewer than four cards shown, with the card average standing at 5.89 per game in that time. Unfortunately, perhaps, we have Craig Pawson at the whistle, the Premier League's stingiest card thrower.

At 2.33 cards per game in the Premier League, Pawson is the most lenient top flight official, but that's not going to put me off from backing our good friend YERSON MOSQUERA yet again here at 23/10.

Yerson Mosquera is a regular in the referee's book

The Colombian has nine cards to his name in the top flight, 10 in total this season across league and FA Cup outings, with his card per 90 average at 0.56. That makes the price on offer here huge in itself, before we factor in the derby aspect and the opponent.

Mosquera seems to get up for these games with Villa, playing against them twice since moving to Wolves and getting booked on both occasions. The fact he also plays on the right side of Wolves' back three also explains this and adds more credence to this bet.

That's because Aston Villa draw a load of cards down their left hand side. After last week, which saw Leeds right-back Jayden Bogle get carded, it's now six of the last eight right backs to have faced Villa that have been carded, and four of the last eight right-centre-backs.

Mosquera is going to have his work cut out once again, and could easily lose his head in this derby atmosphere.

While cards may not explode with Pawson at the whistle, we should get a couple at least and I think the 4/5 about WOLVES MOST CARDS is a cracking bet. The Old Gold have collected the the fifth most cards in the league this season (2.47 per game) while Villa have collected the fourth fewest cards (1.48 per game).

Add in that Villa top the charts for cards drawn at a whopping 2.52 per game, and I expected to see Wolves closer to 1/2 here. This bet has won in four of the last five head-to-heads too, while this bet has won in 11 of Villa's last 16 league games.

Score prediction: Wolves 0-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Odds correct at 17:00 GMT (26/02/26)

Bournemouth vs Sunderland

Sunderland have really struggled away from home all season long. It's just two wins in 13 and seven defeats, so a long trip to Bournemouth isn't ideal. Fortunately they have Granit Xhaka back, which does have me wary. He's been sorely missed and my provide a boost.

We do however know exactly how Sunderland will approach this game - that is to sit deep and soak up pressure. That leads to shots. The Black Cats have faced 16.0 shots per game on their travels, which opens up some betting avenues here.

ALEX SCOTT's price for 2+ TOTAL SHOTS is in range once again and we'll get involved at 13/10. This bet has landed in six of his last seven games, with his shot rate spiking.

In those seven games he's taken 19 shots, which is the same total he managed in his previous 19 games. Against a Sunderland side who sit deep and concede plenty of attempts, Scott should be able to fire off a few shots from range and looks overpriced to do so. Some firms have this bet at 4/6.

Score prediction: Bournemouth 2-0 Sunderland (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Odds correct at 17:00 GMT (26/02/26)

Burnley vs Brentford

Burnley got a late point at Chelsea, benefitting from a sending off, as they continue to slowly pick up some points. Brentford need to get back to winning ways, and they should here, but the best bet in the game comes in the form of SEPP VAN DEN BERG 1+ TOTAL SHOT at 17/20.

The Dutchman had two shots last week against Brighton, with this bet landing in four of his last six outings. His Brentford team have taken the fifth most shots from set-pieces this season and generated the fifth most set-piece xG, highlighting how dangerous they are.

On the flip side, Burnley have conceded the seventh most shots in the league from set-plays and the fourth most set-piece xG, so are vulnerable, and Van den Berg could be the latest centre-back to profit.

Score prediction: Burnley 0-2 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 17:00 GMT (26/02/26)

Liverpool vs West Ham

I really like WEST HAM's chances at Anfield. Nuno Espirito Santo's side have found form, and it's led to good performances and results. They have lost just one of their last six league games, winning the xG battle four times and averaging a hugely impressive 1.76 xGF and 1.22 xGA per game.

Those figures are what we'd expect from a top-half team, so should the Hammers maintain the same levels they will stay up comfortably. On Saturday they have a great chance of getting something against a Liverpool team who continue to flatter to deceive, and who shouldn't be 2/5 to win here.

The Reds were shocking for the majority of last week's game at Nottingham Forest, being exceptionally fortunate to get the win, while at home they have struggled. It's just three wins in their last eight league games at Anfield.

Worryingly, Arne Slot's side have failed to beat Nottingham Forest, Sunderland, Leeds and Burnley in that span, as well as only just edging past Wolves. All of those teams have something in common - they set up to frustrate and counter.

That is West Ham's modus operandi under Nuno, and they have dangerous attackers that are in form. And let's not forget that Nuno beat Slot at Anfield when Forest boss last season, so we'll be taking a pro-West Ham stance here and backing them +1.0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 13/10, as well as backing them TO WIN at 6/1.

Taking them +1.0 gives us a winner should the Hammers avoid defeat, while we get money back if they lose by a goal. Backing this in Liverpool's home league games, we would have lost money just four times in 13, with the bet landing six times. The away win may seem a stretch, but I think this could be an awkward match-up for the Reds, while the Hammers are playing well.

Not to go bet-crazy in this game but we have to go back in on CRYSENCIO SUMMERVILLE 1+ SHOT ON TARGET at 5/4. It's landed in all of his last nine games and he will relish the space afforded to him on the counter-attack here.

Score prediction: Liverpool 1-2 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)

Odds correct at 17:00 GMT (26/02/26)

Newcastle vs Everton

Everton start the weekend above Newcastle in the standings, with both just three and four points respectively off seventh-spot, which could again be enough for a Europa League berth. It's a big game for both, though neither are in great form.

JAMES GARNER has been a reliable shooter of late though, and we'll back him 1+ SHOT ON TARGET at 5/2 at St. James' Park.

This is a bet that has delivered in all of his last three and in six of his last 10 starts, and is massively aided by the fact he takes the Toffees' direct free-kicks.

Newcastle have been leaky of late too, shipping 13.2 shots and 4.7 shots on target per game in their last nine, so do give teams a chance. Hopefully Garner once again delivers at a nice price.

Joelinton has picked up plenty of cards once again this season

We have a nice referee appointment for cards here too with Stuart Attwell overseeing proceedings (4.69 cards per game in PL), and at the prices we have to back JOELINTON TO BE CARDED.

He's 13/5 for a card here, has collected seven already in the league, four in his last six league appearances and is averaging 1.93 fouls per 90. Across all competitions he's picked up 11 cards at an average of 0.48 per 90, so the price here looks too big to turn down with a card-happy ref.

Score prediction: Newcastle 2-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 17:00 GMT (26/02/26)

Leeds vs Manchester City

Leeds' season turned on it's head in the reverse game against Manchester City, where they were 2-0 down, switched to a back five, fought back and eventually conceded a winner. Since then they have lost just two of 16 in all competitions, one to Arsenal and one at Newcastle.

They have been incredibly tough to beat, and the 7/5 about Leeds or draw did appeal initially, but this City team are on a roll right now, heading to Elland Road unbeaten in eight, winning seven of those.

I've been drawn to the price about JAYDEN BOGLE 1+ TOTAL SHOT, which looks huge at 17/10. According to the bookies, he's the least-likely starter to register a shot in this game.

Jayden Bogle scored against Nottingham Forest in Leeds' last home game

While far from prolific this season, he has landed this bet in 12 of his 24 starts across all competitions, including three of his last four. What's been notable is just how further forward he's been roaming in recent weeks, with his goal against Nottingham Forest a prime example, while his line-breaking runs were on display at Chelsea too as he won the penalty for Leeds' first and the highest player forward scrapping for the ball to set up the equaliser.

He seems to be one of Leeds' best counter-attacking weapons, and will be getting plenty of use here against a City side who will dominate possession and territory.

It's also worth mentioning that last season in the Championship Bogle averaged 1.10 shots per 90 with Leeds, while in 23/24 as part of a very poor Sheffield United side he averaged 1.03 shots per 90 in the top flight.

Score prediction: Leeds 1-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 17:00 GMT (26/02/26)

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