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Jake Osgathorpe's predictions

Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 24/25 Matchday 29

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Sun March 16, 2025 · 9M ago
  • Jake's Predictions (before this weekend): Staked 387.00pts | Returned 411.29pts | P/L +24.29pts | ROI 6.3%

Football betting tips: Premier League

Sunday 19:00

1.5pts Under 3.5 cards in Leicester vs Man Utd at 5/4 (Unibet)

0.5pt Under 1.5 cards in Leicester vs Man Utd at 7/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power, bet365)

"Cucurrella, Cucurella, He eats paella, He drinks Estrella, His hair is f***ing massive!"

Chelsea's Spanish left-back was one of our heroes last weekend, scoring a 25-yard screamer for a winner above 11/1 providing us a nice bounce back after a couple of poor editions.

Anthony Taylor continues to be my favourite referee in the world, delivering us just one card in Manchester United vs Arsenal, but boy we were close to the 34/1 no cards bet. He did land the latter for me at 25/1 in Thursday's Any Other Bets, but unfortunately isn't reffing this weekend. *sad face emoji*

Anyway, we've a slightly reduced Premier League slate this weekend with the Carabao Cup final taking place, but there's still a hell of a lot to get stuck into.

Leicester vs Manchester United

Leicester are going down with a whimper in more ways than one. They are losing every week, but they are barely putting up a fight, with no big tackles or flare ups, just rolling over.

The drop off in cards in games featuring the Foxes is pretty eye-catching, and means that once again we are going to be opposing cards this weekend, with UNDER 3.5 CARDS a cracking bet at 5/4.

Ruud van Nistelrooy's troops have seen this bet land in 11 of his 17 games in charge and five of their last six, as they have seemingly succumbed to their fate.

Manchester United have gone in a similar way too, with their league games being less important, with this bet landing in six of their last nine.

The referee here is Thomas Bramall who has averaged 3.4 cards per game across all competitions this season, and this bet has landed in his last three Premier League outings.

That's encouraging, and not to get too greedy, but we simply have to back UNDER 1.5 CARDS at 7/1.

It's a bet that's landed in seven of Leicester's last 10 league outings, while referee Bramall played out a no card game just a few weeks ago when Fulham beat Nottingham Forest 2-1 in the top flight.

Manchester United do have some card magnets - I'm looking at you Manuel Ugarte - which is the main reason I wasn't going to chance the no cards at 31/1 in this column, but Amorim's side have delivered profit for Under 1.5 card backers in four of their last nine domestic games too.

The final piece of positive news for the 7/1 shot is that these two sides have played three times already this season, admittedly all three at Old Trafford, and there has been just one card shown in all three outings. Let's hope for a repeat.

Score prediction: Leicester 0-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Super 6 predictions for round 46

  • Manchester City 1-1 Brighton
  • Ipswich 0-2 N Forest
  • Bournemouth 1-0 Brentford
  • Arsenal 0-0 Chelsea
  • Liverpool 1-1 Newcastle
  • Leicester 0-1 Manchester United

Already advised

Saturday 15:00

1.5pts Under 3.5 cards in Everton vs West Ham at 19/20 (Unibet)

0.5pt No cards in Everton vs West Ham at 22/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

2pts Julio Enciso 3+ total shots in Ipswich vs N Forest at 5/4 (bet365)

1pts Julio Enciso 4+ total shots in Ipswich vs N Forest at 3/1 (bet365)

1pt Tariq Lamptey 2+ fouls committed in Man City vs Brighton at 2/1 (bet365)

Saturday 17:30

1pt Under 2.5 Goals in Bournemouth vs Brentford at 9/5 (Betfair)

Sunday 13:30

1.5pt Under 2.5 Goals in Arsenal vs Chelsea at 19/20 (Unibet)

0.5pt No goalscorer in Arsenal vs Chelsea at 11/1 (Sky Bet)

1.5pts Calvin Bassey 1+ total shot in Fulham vs Spurs at 6/4 (Betway)

0.5pts e.w. Calvin Bassey to score anytime in Fulham vs Spurs at 33/1 (bet365 1/3 1-99)

Everton vs West Ham

A lovely game where there is really nothing at stake. Everton have surged clear of the drop zone after an eight-game unbeaten run and are level on points with West Ham, the pair 16 points clear of the drop zone.

This game has very little riding on it to say the least, other than pride, and could therefore be a clean game from a card perspective. Both teams have been good from a discipline perspective since the managerial changes, Everton games averaging 3.6 cards and West Ham's 3.0.

I think it makes sense to back UNDER 3.5 CARDS here with the season winding down, with 19/20 looking generous. It's won in five of 10 Everton games and five of nine West Ham matches.

Referee Darren Bond is the man in the middle and has calmed in recent weeks, with this bet winning in all of his recent outings.

Interestingly one of those games was an Everton match at Goodison Park against Leicester and he brandished a grand total of zero, so we simply have to back a repeat with NO CARDS at 22/1.

Let's hope we get another damp squib, most of the Hammers' recent games in particular having gone that way.

Score prediction: Everton 1-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest

Every man and his dog should want to be on Forest this weekend. Nuno Espirito Santo's side have been flat-track bullies this season, winning 11 of an unbeaten 12 against bottom half teams, including a 100% winning record in six road trips to those in 11th and below.

Because I'm a nice guy, I let Jimmy take the straight win here and have had to pivot to something else. And pivot we have, going from a pro-Forest play to an Ipswich-related one.

JULIO ENCISO is a shot merchant and with Ipswich desperate, I think we have to attack his shot lines. It's 5/4 he takes 3+ SHOTS which looks a cracking price, as does the 3/1 about 4+ SHOTS.

The Paraguayan has played limited minutes yet again this season, but when he has played he's made them count. In 12 games where he's played at least 20 minutes across all competitions, Enciso has fired 44 shots, averaging 5.68 per 90 across those games.

He's landed the 3+ bounty in eight of those 12 matches, hitting 4+ in five of those including four of his five matches since Boxing Day.

Last time out in a 1-0 away defeat at Crystal Palace he took four shots, and a month earlier he took six at home to Southampton. Those are the only two games of 20+ minutes he's played for Ipswich but now fit again, he can pull the trigger against a Forest team who do concede shots.

Nuno's side have faced 380 shots this season (13.6 per game), the fifth most in the league, so Enciso should have plenty of opportunities to fire away.

Score prediction: Ipswich 0-2 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)

Manchester City vs Brighton

This should be a really good game, made all the better by the added importance of a result for both Manchester City and Brighton as they fight for European football.

City are fifth and just one point above their seventh-placed visitors, who have rattled off four straight league wins - three against fellow contenders, too. The hosts look too short to back here, especially after losing tamely against another top-four rival last weekend, but it has to be said that at home of late Pep Guardiola's men have looked better, winning six of eight and losing only to Real Madrid and Liverpool.

I'll swerve the 1X2 and instead focus on Brighton's returning right-back TARIQ LAMPTEY in the fouls markets, with his 2/1 price TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS looking massive.

The Ghanaian was suspended for last weekend's win over Fulham after being sent off in the FA Cup win at Newcastle, and returns in time for a tough match-up at the Etihad.

He'll likely be up against Jeremy Doku, who has started all of City's last three league games and has impressed greatly. The Belgian is know for his direct dribbling and foul-drawing abilities, winning an average of 1.85 per 90 this season.

Lamptey is rash into his tackles, and has in fact landed this bet in four of his last six starts for Brighton where he has averaged 1.92 fouls per 90, so given the match-up, the attacking styles of both teams and the importance of the game, the price on offer looks too big. The same bet is 21/20 in places.

Score prediction: Manchester City 1-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Southampton vs Wolves

This looks like one of Southampton's best chances to collect points between now and the end of the season.

Saints have a terribly tough run-in, so a home game against the team fourth bottom who are missing their best player looks a great opportunity to get a result as they look to claw themselves above Derby's 2008 infamous points tally of 11.

Wolves can be backed at 11/10 to win, and have won twice in six away games under Vitor Pereira, but I am hesitant to get them onside without Matheus Cunha, for all I do think the Old Gold could easily make a mockery of their odds-against price on Saturday.

It's a no bet from me at St Mary's.

Score prediction: Southampton 1-3 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Bournemouth vs Brentford

I may perhaps be going against the grain here, but I think UNDER 2.5 GOALS looks overpriced at 9/5.

Yes, the Cherries are coming off the back of a scintillating 2-2 draw at Spurs but let's remember that their partner in that particular dance was a crazily attack-minded team. On this occasion, it's a side happy to sit in a low-block and frustrate.

That approach is something Bournemouth have struggled with this term, mainly at home, as opposing teams are more likely to be expansive in front of their own fans.

It's led to a dearth of goals in the Cherries' home matches, Bournemouth fans seeing just 2.1 goals per game at the Vitality.

Nine of their 13 league games have seen under 2.5 goals land, including six of the last seven, with Andoni Iraola's side finding it tough against the likes of West Ham (1-1), Crystal Palace (0-0), Everton (1-0) and Wolves (0-1) in that run.

Brentford's adaptability will probably frustrate Bournemouth more than just a deep-block, as their willingness to pump long balls will negate the intense press of the hosts, making it a huge test for the side chasing European football.

On the flip side, Illia Zabarnyi is back after suspension which will help sure up Bournemouth's backline and make it tough for the Bees to create much, so at the prices, we have to chance the unders.

Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-0 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Arsenal vs Chelsea

Hands up who wants to back Arsenal at odds-on in any game at the moment? Just you in the back, best of luck.

The Gunners remain without their best four attackers and continue to play Mikel Merino as their striker, so it's no surprise they continue to struggle going forward.

Across their last seven games in all competitions, the Gunners have scored 12 times, which sounds good, but after factoring in that they scored nine times in two games against a poor PSV side, the three in five against Premier League teams is alarming.

They've fired three blanks in that quintet of outings, and have averaged just 1.20 xGF per game. Fortunately their defence remains pretty strong, so I'm immediately drawn to a low-scoring game.

Factor in Chelsea's recent displays that have been full-on boring Maresca-ball, and UNDER 2.5 GOALS looks a solid proposition at near even money.

As discussed ahead of Chelsea's game against Copenhagen, the Blues have become extremely stale of late. In two games against the Danes, Enzo Maresca's men mustered a total of 16 shots equating to 1.50 xGF, while against Leicester they created just one big chance.

Defensively they have looked very solid (total of 1.52 xGA in last three), granted against poor opposition, due to their more possession-heavy approach that has seen the games played at snail-pace, reducing any kind of transitional opportunities and sucking the life out of everyone watching.

Arsenal are better than the sides the Blues have played recently, but their attacking woes could make it an easier outing than it could have otherwise been for Chelsea, while the visitors own attacking issues could make it easy for Arsenal, so we have to back NO GOALSCORER too, just in case.

Given the state of the table which has Arsenal fifth (55pts) and Chelsea fourth (49pts), a draw could be a result that suits both in their pursuit of a top four finish, so it could be a case that the longer this game goes on goalless, the higher the chance both start with holding attacking blows and settle for what they have got.

Score prediction: Arsenal 0-0 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)

Fulham vs Tottenham

Tottenham head to Fulham as massive outsiders after the midweek exploits, a 3-1 win that saw them progress past AZ Alkmaar to the quarter-finals of the Europa League.

We should expect wholesale changes from Ange Postecoglou, especially in defence with Christian Romero and Micky van de Ven still needing their minutes managed, which goes some way to explaining why hosts Fulham are even money.

I don't trust either team so will be giving the 1X2 a wide-berth. With Spurs likely to field a different centre-back partnership this weekend, I'll happily chance Fulham centre-back CALVIN BASSEY 1+ TOTAL SHOT at 6/4.

The Nigerian isn't the most prolific shooter, taking 14 in 28 outings across league and cup, but he has fared well against the worst teams at defending set-pieces.

The top five in that category according to expected goals against (xGA) are Southampton, Leicester, Manchester United, Wolves and Tottenham, and Bassey has taken a shot in half of his eight starts against that quintet, firing six attempts in total including the against Spurs in north London.

Tottenham remain a vulnerable team from set-pieces despite conceding just six goals. Across their last six games in all competitions they have conceded 16 shots from set-pieces, with centre-backs Matthijs de Ligt (2), Dara O'Shea (1), Dean Huijsen (2) and James Hill (1) all getting a shot away from a set-piece.

Bassey could follow suit and is overpriced to do so. We'll also back him each-way TO SCORE FIRST at 33/1, just in case.

He has only scored twice this season, but both goals have come in his last four starts for Fulham, with his latest against Manchester United being the first goal of the game.

Score prediction: Fulham 2-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Saturday's tips - odds correct at 1130 GMT (14/03/25)

Sunday's 13:30 tips - odds correct at 1445 GMT (14/03/25)

Sunday's 19:00 tips - odds correct at 1630 GMT (14/03/25)

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