Michael Beardmore bids to continue a profitable season with his top 1X2 and BTTS value picks for your Saturday 3pm accumulators, including a best bet.
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- Saturday Seven Nap 21/22: +9.8pts profit | 12% return on investment
- Saturday Seven Nap 22/23: +1.3pts profit | 2% return on investment
Football betting tips: Saturday best bet
1.5pts Brentford to beat Leicester at evens (General)
Bar five of the ‘Big Six’ – Chelsea the unsurprising absentee – no Premier League side has a better home record than BRENTFORD this season. Only leaders Arsenal have come away with victory.
Visitors Leicester have lost nine of their 13 away games in the league and are on a run of five successive defeats, with goals – just two in those five matches – having virtually dried up.
ASTON VILLA have played seven sides involved in the Premier League relegation battle since 2023 began, taking 14 points from 21 including wins over Southampton, Leeds, Everton and Crystal Palace.
They should be backed at home to a Bournemouth side with by far the worst Expected Goals process in the top flight, having lost the xG battle in 10 of 11 games since the restart – their luck can’t go on.
There’s many heavy odds-on home favourites on Saturday, some too short to back but MIDDLESBROUGH just make the cut, with seven wins from their past eight at the Riverside.
They must win to keep the pressure on second-placed Sheffield United in the Sky Bet Championship – visitors Preston are no mugs but in their past three visits to promotion chasers they have recorded just 1.12 xGF (Expected Goals For) combined.
MILLWALL are almost as good at home as Boro, averaging 1.94 points per game at The Den this season, a tally that has helped them into the Championship play-off places.
Neil Warnock’s appointment has given struggling Huddersfield a slight shot in the arm at home but their away record remains horrendous, losing five of their last six on the road without scoring.
DERBY’s proud unbeaten record at Pride Park stretches back 12 League One games and more than five months and the Rams have been involved in some high-scoring barnstormers recently.
That should not bode well for visitors Fleetwood, who simply cannot match that firepower, having scored just 10 goals in their past 14 games in all competitions – and just three in their last seven.
Since New Year’s Day, PORTSMOUTH have been a model of consistency against sides below them in Sky Bet League One, winning six such meetings and only dropping points in a draw at Lincoln.
They are a very inviting price to continue that record at a Bristol Rovers side that’s lost nine of its past 15 in all competitions, including four of six at home, where they have scored just once in that time.
Sky Bet League Two leaders LEYTON ORIENT have not lost at home in the league in more than five months and their overall record against the sides inhabiting the bottom six this season is P8 W8.
That’s not good news for Colchester whose improvement seems have come to a shuddering halt with four straight defeats, all without scoring, as they prepare to visit the division’s meanest back-line.
Odds correct at 1030 GMT (16/03/23)
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