- Jake's 26/27 Predictions: Staked 15.8pts | Returned 8.86pts | P/L -6.94pts | ROI -43%
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Marc Guehi to win 2+ fouls at 11/8 (bet365) - min price evens
0.5pts Marc Guehi to win 2+ fouls and commit 1+ foul at 13/5 (bet365) - min price 2/1
1pt Rayan Cherki 1+ assist at 9/4 (bet365) - min price 15/8
Last weekend, we got kicked in the nuts repeatedly by late goals. It was brutal, but at least we kept stakes small.
Leeds (88th) and Ipswich (90th) scored late winners to deny us two draws in the 3pm kick-offs on Saturday, and the Sunday was even more devastating.
Having opposed Manchester City and Liverpool with big priced outsiders, both were leading late into the game. City scored in 84th to equalise and the 91st minute to win against Bournemouth, meaning we didn't even get a push on our Draw no Bet selection. Liverpool netted an 99th minute penalty to draw at Newcastle which was an even bigger sucker punch.
(Let's forget the fact we were on Aston Villa at Brighton...)
The positives were that we were absolutely on the right lines (bar Villa), and the two bigger stake plays (2pts) both won which is encouraging. Hopefully we get the rub of the green this week and claw back some of the opening weekend deficit.
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
This week's Friday Night Football takes us to Selhurst Park for Pierre Sage's first home game as Crystal Palace manager, as the Eagles welcome a Manchester City side who scraped to an opening weekend win.
Palace were beaten 2-0 in their opener away at Everton, but were better than the result suggested, winning the xG battle 1.96-1.12 and being especially unfortunate not to have taken the lead in the match.
The Eagles squandered four big chances before the Toffees took the lead, with the xG totals 1.57-0.28 in Palace's favour before Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall's goal. So, it's not all negative as they play host for the first time this season.
City needed two late goals from defenders to turnaround their game against Bournemouth, but they did create plenty in the game and limited the Cherries well, allowing just five shots in the 90 minutes equating to 0.65 xG. The goals were scored by defenders but both were set up by substitute RAYAN CHERKI.
The mercurial Frenchman made an immediate impact off the bench, coming on for 27 minutes minute and creating the most chances (4) and most expected assists (0.50) of any player in the match. Surely he's done enough to warrant a start here.
That's the hope anyway as at 9/4 we simply have to back him to have 1+ ASSIST.
His opening weekend performance was not a flash in the pan. Last season only Bruno Fernandes (21) racked up more assists than Cherki (12) in the Premier League despite the Frenchman only starting 19 games, with Cherki's assists per 90 of 0.60 only just behind the Portuguese maestro's 0.62.
The pair were tied at the top for big chances created per 90 last season (0.97), but Cherki topped the expected assist (xA) per 90 table with 0.44. That just puts into context the level of City's French creator, and means the price here is value.
He's on set-pieces too which is a huge bonus for us here with Palace a much smaller team with no Maxence Lacroix and the Eagles fresh from conceding from a dead-ball last weekend against Everton.
MARC GUEHI played in midfield last weekend and could well be deployed in a similar manner at Selhurst Park having impressed against Bournemouth, while this game could come too soon for new signing Ayyoub Bouaddi.
That makes Guehi's prices for FOUL INVOLVEMENTS of interest. He's 11/8 TO WIN 2+ FOULS which looks like value given his track record and the opponents he's facing on Friday, not to mention this is his first return to Selhurst Park.
Guehi was fouled twice in six of his last eight starts last season for City and picked up from where he left off last week despite playing in midfield as opposed to defence, winning two fouls.
Notably all three of Everton's midfielders last weekend were fouled at least twice, with the physical nature and aggressive press of Palace leading to some high numbers. That approach should be even more likely here in their first home game of the season, increasing the likelihood of Guehi getting smashed into.
Given a degree of unfamiliarity of the role and the fact he will be under pressure from Palace's forwards and midfielders, the chances of Guehi COMMITTING 1+ FOUL has to increase too, so we'll take him TO COMMIT 1+ FOUL AND TO WIN 2+ FOULS at 13/5.
This bet landed last weekend in his midfield debut and in three of his last six starts of last season - including against Palace at the Etihad.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-3 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 12:20 BST (27/08/26)
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