Football betting tips: FA Cup
2pts Both teams to score at evens (Sky Bet)
1pt James Bree to be carded at 5/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Bree to score anytime at 14/1 (BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.25pt Bree to score and be carded at 50/1 (bet365)
Arsenal’s quadruple hopes were ended by Manchester City before the international break as Pep Guardiola’s side schooled Mikel Arteta’s 2-0 at Wembley.
What became blatantly obvious in that fixture - and it’s not very insightful - was how much the Gunners miss Martin Odegaard’s creativity and quality.
Aside from a good opening 15 minutes or so, without him Arsenal really struggled to create anything from open play.
I mean, it shouldn’t be too much of a surprise to see the side that has scored over a quarter of its Premier League goals across the last two seasons from set-pieces become over reliant on set-pieces.
Not that it’s a bad trait to have, but without their maestro Odegaard the Gunners look appallingly one dimensional and Pep knew this.
It’s why City’s frontline sat off at Wembley and just let Gabriel Magalhaes and William Saliba knock it between one another.
I am looking forward to seeing how Arteta’s side reacts to that setback.
A lot's been made of this group's resilience - or perceived lack off - and anything other than absolute conviction will be prayed on as the season turns for the home straight.
It’ll also be interesting to see who Arteta actually plays as 11 of his squad withdrew from international duty this month.
Saliba (ankle), Gabriel (knee), Eberechi Eze (calf), Odegaard (knee), Jurrien Timber (groin), Leandro Trossard (hip), Declan Rice (knock), Bukayo Saka (knock), Noni Madueke (knee), Martin Zubimendi (knee) and Piero Hincapie (unknown).
According to the BBC, 23 top-flight players dropped out of international duty during this break and almost half of them are Arsenal players.
I mean how unlucky can you be. I am sure the rest of the Premier League and Southampton would love to join me in wishing those 11 a speedy recovery.
Tonda Eckert should take heed from Pep’s tactics, especially considering Odegaard won’t get rushed back for this fixture.
Southampton might not have the quality of Manchester City but they will certainly fancy their chances of bloodying the noses of the champions elect.
Arsenal have beaten Portsmouth (Championship), Wigan (League One) and Mansfield (League One) en route to the FA Cup quarter-finals conceding in two of those three fixtures. Interestingly, those three sides racked up a combined expected goals (xG) of 3.54 so there were no fluky goals.
Saints edged a five-goal thriller at Doncaster in the third round, snuck past Leicester in extra time in the fourth and beat Fulham via an injury-time penalty in the last round.
Southampton scored at least one goal in 90 minutes across all three of those games and Arsenal conceded in two of their three against EFL opposition. So, at even money BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE is the bet.
Sticking along similar lines, I also think JAMES BREE is worth a punt TO SCORE ANYTIME.
BetMGM and Virgin Bet have him at 15s if you can get on there but I am advising him at the 14s available with the more established firms of BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes.
Anyway, since getting recalled from his loan at Charlton, Bree has scored three times in 13 appearances and has set up another two.
Eckert clearly gives him plenty of attacking freedom, his heatmap in the second tier looks more that of a winger than a full-back in certain games.
Bree also doesn’t mind getting stuck in, although this hasn’t always been the case.
He’s picked up nine cautions this term, more than he did across the previous six seasons combined.
With this in mind, at 5/1, his price TO BE CARDED also appeals.
Bree could be opposing the temperamental Trossard, the tricky Madueke or the foul-drawing Saka. Should any of the trio be fit.
Either way, he looks a bet for a card and naturally, combining him TO SCORE AND BE CARDED appeals at 50/1.
It leaves the door ajar for a last-minute Bree winner and some overzealous celebrating…
Odds correct at 17:30 BST (01/04/26)
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