After a crazy round of 16, Euro 2020 has reached the quarter-final stage. Jake Osgathorpe uses the Infogol model to see who will progress to the semis, with an exclusive enhanced treble advised.
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Switzerland v Spain
- Friday, 17:00 BST
- Gazprom Arena - Saint Petersburg, Russia
Switzerland caused the upset of the round by knocking out World champions France on penalties. We have seen a much more potent attacking threat from the Swiss than we have in recent tournaments, averaging 1.79 xGF per game, but defensively they have looked vulnerable as a result (1.98 xGA per game).
Luis Enrique's Spain side needed extra-time to get past Croatia, but that result was deserved after another superb attacking display. La Furia Roja have now racked up a huge 14.06 xGF in four matches - an average of 3.52 xGF per game.
If they continue in that manner, it will be difficult to see Switzerland stopping the Spaniards. Infogol's model makes Enrique's side strong 72% favourites to progress to the semi-finals.
Belgium v Italy
- Friday, 20:00 BST
- Allianz Arena - Munich, Germany
Belgium knocked out the reigning champions in the last 16, beating Portugal 1-0 in Seville, but the way they went about it was unusual for the Red Devils, as it was their defence that won them the game. They went defensive after taking the lead and did a really good job of limiting Portugal to low-probability chances.
Italy needed extra-time to get past a spirited Austria side, but head into this clash unbeaten in a national team record 31 matches. However, the only true 'elite' team they have played in that time is Portugal, so Belgium represent their first real test for some time.
Doubts about Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard's fitness have meant that the Italians have been installed as favourites to progress by the bookmakers, but the Infogol model makes the Belgians narrow favourites, calculating that they have a 56% chance of making the semi-finals.
Czech Republic v Denmark
- Saturday, 17:00 BST
- Baku Olympic Stadium - Baku, Azerbaijan
The Czech Republic caused a shock by beating the Netherlands in the last 16, but they deserved the victory according to expected goals (xG: NED 0.99 - 1.77 CZE). However, the sending off of Mattijs de Ligt changed the game, as prior to it, the Dutch had created two big chances to the Czech's zero, with the xG score at half time being NED 0.95 - 0.31 CZE.
Denmark simply thrashed Wales 4-0 in the round of 16, another stunning display from the Danes. Their underlying numbers have been excellent throughout Euro 2020, winning the xG battle in all four of their matches - even against Belgium.
The Czechs have posted a negative expected goal difference across their four games at Euro 2020 so far, riding their luck at times, while Denmark have been dominant in their matches. The model makes Denmark strong 69% favourites to progress in this tie.
Ukraine v England
- Saturday, 20:00 BST
- Stadio Olimpico - Rome, Italy
Ukraine edged out Sweden in another round of 16 thriller, scoring in the final moments of extra time to secure a place in the last eight. Andriy Shevchenko's side were undoubtedly helped by a Sweden red card, but created the better chances on a night. It will be difficult to stop England, though, a team with much greater talent.
England advanced past bitter rivals Germany with another cautious - but effective - performance in a 2-0 win (xG: ENG 1.33 - 1.33 GER). Importantly, the Three Lions took their chances when they came their way, with Raheem Sterling starring in the victory. Their approach has been risky, holding a +2.6 expected goal difference for the tournament thus far, but it is paying off.
Infogol's model calculates that Gareth Southgate's side have a 74% chance of heading back to Wembley for a semi-final match-up with either Czech Republic or Denmark, the highest probability of any team to advance to the final four.
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