Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Benfica +1 Asian handicap at 29/40 (bet365)
Chelsea haven’t had the toughest schedule this campaign but have only won three of their eight games, and two of those come with asterisks.
Graham Potter’s West Ham were thumped 5-1, fair enough. They beat Lincoln in the Carabao Cup but went a goal down to the League One side and the victory over Fulham saw an opening goal very harshly ruled out for the Cottagers.
Their season has been marred by ill-discipline and some bad tactical decisions from Enzo Maresca.
Robert Sanchez was sent off five minutes into the loss at Old Trafford. Maresca got his subs wrong and even though both teams were reduced to 10-men by the interval, Chelsea didn’t play well.
The exact same thing happened against Brighton where Trevoh Chalobah was sent off. The Blues were winning but after going down to 10, Maresca made some strange subs and the Seagulls won 3-1.
In the Champions League, they lost 3-1 in their opening game at Bayern Munich. No shame in that but Chelsea were masters of their own downfall again. Two goals down inside half an hour, an own goal and a penalty, before Cole Palmer got them back into the game in the 29th minute. Malo Gusto then dropped a clanger for Harry Kane’s second and it was game over.
After their Club World Cup triumph, there was optimism ahead of the new season. Chelsea shortened drastically in the Premier League outright market and Maresca showed some tactical versatility to beat PSG in the final.
The Blues pressed high and were direct, completely abandoning the total football approach. It felt like if Maresca showed this versatility this season that we could have a seriously good team on our hands.
Well, that hasn’t been the case.
The injury to Liam Delap has not helped, Joao Pedro doesn’t offer the same physicality upfront. Chelsea are also without Palmer on Tuesday, which is a blow.
With the poor form and growing unrest at Stamford Bridge, it seems a little too perfect that Jose Mourinho returns as BENFICA manager.
His second stint at the club hasn’t gotten off to the most convincing start, mind. Jose is yet to lose but Benfica have not gone off longer than 3/10 in any of their games.
That said, I think the visitors might be a touch too big here. They have shortened since the weekend but I just don’t think Chelsea should be odds-on.
The hosts have gone off at similar prices against West Ham, Fulham, Brighton, Crystal Palace and Brentford this term and have won twice (D2 L2).
So, backing Benfica +1 on the ASIAN HANDICAP is the bet. Backing the Portuguese side this way means we get money back if Chelsea win by one goal, and get a full pay-out if Benfica get a result.
Odds correct at 1500 BST (29/09/25)
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