Football betting tips: Bundesliga
2pts Hoffenheim to finish in the top four at 4/1 (General)
2pts Freiburg to finish in the top four at 11/1 (Paddy Power, Sky Bet)
1pt Hoffenheim to win the Bundesliga (W/O Bayern Munich) at 25/1 (BetVictor)
1pt Freiburg to win the Bundesliga (W/O Bayern Munich) at 70/1 (Paddy Power)
The Bundesliga is the best league to bet on when it comes to individual matches but probably the worst in terms of an outright for the season - of course the person with a weekly Friday column in this league would say that.
It's true though when we consider how few markets there are available with some of the other top European leagues. You've got a handful to go at and two of those have a clear favourite unlikely to be beaten.
Bayern Munich are as short as 1/12 in places to lift yet another Bundesliga title with star striker Harry Kane in at 2/5 with the couple of bookies who are offering a top goalscorer market - neither of those with each-way terms too.
You're essentially left with either finding who is going down or who is making Europe. Again, the latter's top four offering has three others at prices shorter than 1/2. In the eyes of the bookmakers, Germany's top-flight is easily predictable.
The other end of the table is a little bit intriguing as even though there are two sides clear enough in the market the questions surrounding some of the 'bigger' clubs may give them a lifeline.
Elversberg - from the Spiesen-Elversberg with a population of around 13,000 - achieved their first-ever promotion to the Bundesliga and while they'll have an uphill battle to survive, they do come into the campaign with very little pressure.
Play-off winners Paderborn (who had to settle for third spot on goal difference last season) are offered at an odds-against 6/5 compared with Elversberg's 4/5 - both teams should struggle to survive - while second tier champions Schalke do actually go in at a bigger price than Köln.
And the presence of those two teams makes the relegation market a difficult one because someone needs to finish below them. Ending in 16th takes you to the play-offs and while the Zweiter has some talented teams and it, of course, has been achieved recently, you're asking a second division side to beat a top tier one over two legs.
Depending on the price, you may well be better off just backing the second division side in that scenario when it comes to it, rather than seeing your money held for a number of months for a potentially similar price.
The one I'd be somewhat tempted by is Werder Bremen at 7/1 after a season of regression last time out. They were active early in the window but high (enough) profile moves still need to come between now and the deadline. I'm not sure on the quality in depth of this squad even if boss Daniel Thioune can, be all accounts, motivate his sides to get results.
So we focus on the top end of the table. Bayern aren't even worth including in any outright accumulators such is their short price for success - they're adding virtually nothing to it.
The only real way in I can see is by taking a couple of sides who I fancy to be in the European picture again, even if they are contending with competitions on the continent this time around.
I honestly can't really place either between third and eighth in the table but at the prices, they're still worth backing in two markets.
We'll focus on the shorter of the two and that's HOFFENHEIM, with 4/1 available on a TOP FOUR FINISH and 25s that they WIN THE BUNDESLIGA W/O BAYERN MUNICH.
Performances last time out led them to a Europa League spot with boss Christian Ilzer leading them to fifth in the table.
It was a complete transformation from the horror season prior. They would finish 15th and frustrations were evident when striker Andrej Kramaric gave an explosive interview following a 5-0 thrashing by Bayern Munich.
"If I want to say the truth and some things which are on my mind about the club and the situation, I will get the biggest punishment in the history of the Bundesliga," he said.
They bounced back though. Not only that but this summer has been a net positive even with the high-money departure of Bazoumana Touré to Newcastle and Grischa Prömel's (ten goal involvements last season) move to Stuttgart.
Those funds have been reinvested into the squad. They've kept together the large core of that group which finished a single point out of the top four last season and added in a number of areas. They look well equipped for another positive campaign.
The wonderfully named Nathan De Cat arrives in the middle of the park with the 18-year-old catching the eye for Anderlecht, while wingers Adam Daghim and Patrick Wimmer, left-back Mats Rots and defensive midfielder Cajetan Lenz are others to have commanded eight-figure fees.
Last season's performances pretty much matched their results overall so we can be confident that their position wasn't a false one. Ilzer and his staff are now well-settled in their roles and an intense, attacking style should work again given the squad at his disposal.
Prices of 7/4 are on offer with the bookmakers giving you a top six market, but I'll settle on the 4s to better last season's showing.
The other of the two teams I'm focusing on is FREIBURG who are 11/1 to FINISH IN THE TOP FOUR and 70/1 to WIN THE BUNDESLIGA W/O BAYERN MUNICH.
The beaten Europa League finalists embark on a Conference League journey this time around, a competition which is, for the teams in one of Europe's big leagues, Worse But Winnable™️.
Johan Manzambi's record departure for Aston Villa leaves a considerably gap to fill and it remains to be seen just how they do that, with a bit more activity needed between now and the deadline.
Set-pieces remain a focus for this side. If they can continue as a strong side in attacking situations they should gain points once again, but they do need to look at ways in which they improve their defensive approach to them.
What I do like about this Freiburg side though is the squad depth. It looks like a unit which has multiple options in each role without then having a sizeable drop-off in quality.
That should serve them well, particularly with another European campaign to navigate. The Conference League at least delivers less games and, while they should go deep (if they qualify), they did the same in a better tournament last season and still finished in the top seven.
Boss Julian Schuster guided them to within two points of the top four in his first full season in charge and they delivered a deep European run while maintaining an alright league showing. Attacking output does need to improve but they're an organised defensive unit who should have conceded fewer than they did.
A worry is the fact that it seems they have one high profile departure a summer. But then Schuster found a way to navigate Ritsu Dōan's departure last summer so we'll be hopeful of the same without Manzambi.
Keisuke Goto is an interesting addition up front following 13 goals and eight assists in 40 games with Anderlecht in Belgium's top division while Mio Backhaus comes in as a young goalkeeper who had a positive enough campaign despite Bremen's struggles - he'll replace previous number one Noah Atubolu who should depart.
Yannik Engelhardt should also provide a presence in midfield based on what we saw for Borussia Mönchengladbach last season.
It's a task for Freiburg to make that extra step into the top four but that's reflected in the prices. I'd expect them in the European picture in some capacity and the odds are big enough to draw me in.
Odds correct at 13:25 BST (18/08/26)
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