Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Ousmane Dembele to score anytime at 13/8 (Betway) - min price evens
1pt Nuno Mendes to be carded at 17/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 2/1
1pt Jonathan Tah to be carded at 17/4 (Betway) - min price 5/2
*All bets settled in 90 mins
Last week's first leg between these two was an all-timer.
It was an end-to-end nine-goal thriller, ultimately won by PSG, but it was a breath-taking game of attack, attack, attack.
We should expect more of the same in this second leg as these sides don't know any other way to play, which is music to the ears of the neutrals who will be tuning in to watch this.
Despite losing the first leg, it was Bayern Munich who created the better chances on the night, racking up 3.06 xG to PSG's 1.90, with Les Parisiens again being ruthlessly clinical on the European stage.
Across their last five Champions League games, two legs against both Chelsea and Liverpool and the first leg last week, Luis Enrique's side have scored 17 goals from just 59 shots equating to 7.33 xG. Using a poisson distribution - I know, NERD right - we can calculate PSG had just a 0.2% chance of hitting that total.
That is simply remarkable finishing, and usually I would be banging the unsustainable drum but the quality at the top end of the pitch for the French side is unquestionably brilliant.
The reigning champions were easily exposed in the first leg, and that should again be the case here in Munich, where over 2.5 goals is just 1/5, over 3.5 goals is 8/15, both teams to score is 2/7 and the 0-0 is a whopping 40/1 with some firms - the same price as over 9.5 goals...!
If there are to be goals, then we should visit the goalscorer markets. Harry Kane's goal from the spot in the first leg was his 54th of the season in just 47 games, so his price of 4/6 to score this week is fair enough.
PSG striker and current Ballon D'Or holder OUSMANE DEMBELE bagged a brace in Paris and is averaging 0.87 goals per 90 this season yet can be backed at 13/8 TO SCORE ANYTIME in this second leg, meaning he's the first bet of this preview.
The Frenchman's electric pace was a nightmare for Bayern last week, and should be so again as it's highly unlikely that the German side change their tactics. Besides, they are trailing in this tie.
Dembele has averaged 0.75 xG per 90 in the Champions League this season and is on penalties for PSG.
The referee for this game is Joao Pinheiro. He was extremely disappointing last week as he showed just one card in Nottingham Forest's Europa League semi-final first leg win over Aston Villa, but, it seems as though he saves his best stuff for second legs.
When the stakes get high, he gets card-happy. He was in charge of the Champions League last 32 second leg between Juventus and Galatasaray, showing six yellows and a red, while more recently he flashed nine yellows and a red in the Conference League quarter final second leg between Strasbourg and Mainz.
That has me confident about chancing cards, with NUNO MENDES the obvious candidate TO BE CARDED at 17/5.
He was given the runaround in the first leg by Michael Olise, and he will be in for another tough evening with the French winger constantly driving at him and leaving him in his wake.
Mendes hasn't been a card magnet this season but it's rare he's been up against a winger who puts him in such a spin, so I'll happily chance him to time a few tackles wrong and get into the ref's book.
We'll also go back in on JONATHAN TAH TO BE CARDED.
He played a squeaky clean game last week but will be under even more pressure and even more isolated in this second leg as Bayern chase the tie, while PSG's counter-attack options are all excellent foul-drawers.
Tah has averaged 1.81 fouls per 90 in the Champions League this season, collecting eight cards across all competitions at an average of 0.23 per 90.
Odds correct at 21:00 BST (04/05/26)
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