Both Aston Villa and Everton got off to losing starts in the new Premier League season, and Jake Osgathorpe previews the meeting of the pair, selecting best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 4/5 (General)
1.5pt Both teams 20+ booking points at 6/5 (William Hill)
The mood around both Aston Villa and Everton over the past few weeks hasn't been overly positive.
In Villa, there is a team who appear to have done some good business in the transfer window but continue to underwhelm based on the perceived quality in the squad.
As for Everton, their only recognisable striker available for this game is Salomon Rondon, with the Toffees choosing to spend budget on adding defenders to the ranks.
A defeat for either would see the losing manager under some pressure, with Steven Gerrard's price in the dreaded 'Sack Race' already shortening.
This is a big match early on in the season, which immediately draws me to UNDER 2.5 GOALS as the main selection - with my confidence only increased when looking at the underlying numbers.
My biggest disappointment around Aston Villa last season was their attacking process, as defensively they ranked as the eighth best team in the league after Gerrard's appointment.
In fact, Villa performed like a top-half team on all major metrics bar the attacking ones, ranking as the sixth worst team based on xGF per game, averaging just 1.23.
An opening day defeat to Bournemouth in which they mustered just 0.69 xGF is a major concern, and suggests that they may not have yet found an attacking formula that suits.
Everton also failed to test their opponents on opening weekend, racking up just 0.66 xGF at home to Chelsea, and their attacking issues stretch back into last season.
After Frank Lampard's appointment, the Toffees averaged just 1.09 xGF per game, which ranked fourth worst in the league.
They struggled to create chances and continue to do so, especially with key absentees in forward areas, and it still looks like their best chance of getting any sort of results in matches is by being defensive.
So, we have two teams who have issues in attacking areas and whose current strengths are in the defensive areas. Throw in that this is a fairly big match, and siding with a low-scoring outcome makes plenty of appeal.
This is a big match and we could see quite a few tasty tackles. These are two teams who, after all, play with tenacity and an 'in-your-face' mentality, so cards could flow.
Everton saw three cards last weekend against Chelsea, as did Villa at Bournemouth, and the appointment of Michael Oliver increases the chances of flurry in this game.
Oliver averaged 3.48 yellow cards per game across all competitions last season, while also flashing 11 red cards.
Interestingly, he oversaw six Everton games last season, four after Lampard took over with one FA Cup game and three league matches.
In the three league games, he brandished 11 yellow cards, but more eye-catchingly, Oliver dished out four red cards - ALL TO EVERTON PLAYERS.
This is obviously pure coincidence, as Oliver wouldn't have it in for Everton, right?
Either way, his refereeing style and their playing style clearly blend nicely for card-laden games, so it appears worth chancing BOTH TEAMS 20+ BOOKING POINTS here.
Villa were as 'dirty' as Everton last season in terms of yellow cards, with both teams collecting 80 - an average of 2.1 per game.
Throw in the fact that when these two teams last met there were nine yellows, five to Everton and four to Villa, and we could see some fireworks on the card front on Saturday.
Aston Villa v Everton score prediction and best bets
- 2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 4/5 (General)
- 1.5pt Both teams 20+ booking points at 6/5 (William Hill)
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct 1300 BST (11/08/22)
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