We're getting down to the sharp end of the US Open at Flushing Meadows and Scott Ferguson is back with Wednesday's best bets.
Matteo Berrettini v Gael Monfils
The battle to win the third quarter-final comes down to this surprise pairing, who have yet to play each other in a competitive match. Matteo Berrettini is in his first major quarter-final, with a genuine chance of going further.
The 23-year-old Italian has big weapons in his serve, which averages close to 200kmh (125mph), and a rocket of a forehand. In four rounds so far, he has taken control of the match and then eased off a little.
The three sets he has dropped have all been after he won the first two sets, and of the seven service breaks against him, only once in four matches did that happen in either of the opening two sets. Those 'lapses' we can probably put down to immaturity or opponents needing two hours to be able to read his serve. Either way, it's a nice problem to have rather than regularly battling to stay in a match.
Last time out he shut down the form player in Andrey Rublev, who had sent Stefanos Tsitsipas and Nick Kyrgios packing during the first week, and in that sort of form is a danger to anyone left in the draw.
Gael Monfils lines up for his fourth US Open quarter-final, on the back of three straight-set wins (two of them in under 90 minutes) and a five-set marathon against Denis Shapovalov. The Frenchman is renowned as the excitement machine, reeling off winners from incredible positions and moving around the court like few others - when his body is willing and able. Thankfully, the ankle injury he suffered in Montreal, and the rest of his long list of ailments look to be behind him for now.
Monfils is marked up as favourite for this based on rankings, current and peak, as well as his history here. I can't disagree with that but think he may be too short at the current price.
Berrettini definitely has a shot here and while I'll be having a nibble at the match odds, my recommended bet is for him to start quickly again. Opponents have had difficulty reading his game in every round so far, and Monfils is seasoned enough to know that this will be a marathon rather than a sprint.
Best bet: Berrettini to win the first set at 5/4
