Andy Schooler previews Monday’s matches at the US Open at Flushing Meadows.
Tennis tips: Today's US Open best bets
1pt Aleksandar Kovacevic to beat Valentin Vacherot at evens (General)
0.5pt no tie-break in Jurij Rodionov v Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard at 7/2 (bet365)
Roman Safiullin v Carlos Alcaraz
When I saw Alcaraz had decided to play and was still the tournament favourite, my immediate view was ‘what?’ This, after all, is a player who hasn’t played for more than four months due to a wrist injury – always a concern for any tennis player.
For those who haven’t read my outright preview, I remain firmly of the view that he’s highly unlikely to win the title.
Given the layers’ position of making Alcaraz a clear favourite around the 5/2 mark, I had hoped this match would provide some immediate value to take him on.
After all, Safiullin is a player who enjoys the big stage and taking on the top names.
He reached the last 16 at Wimbledon recently, losing eventually in four sets to Novak Djokovic.
His other matches against top-20 opponents this season have seen him beat Andrey Rublev in five sets and lose to Casper Ruud, also in a fifth and final set.
In addition, Safiullin has beaten Alcaraz in the past, doing so at the Paris Masters in 2023.
However, I did think he might be more than 4/1 to win the match and that price filters down through the other markets.
Safiullin to win a set was an option I was thinking – he’s now won a set in five of his last seven matches against top-20 players – but that’s only 4/6.
I could maybe play at a slightly better 8/11 about there being over 3.5 sets but that’s still a short price to pull the trigger at.
I still have in my mind the way Jannik Sinner returned after a similar period out last season – he immediately found his groove.
The difference is that while Sinner was fully fit physically during his spell out (he was serving a controversial drugs ban), Alcaraz has not been able to practice as he wished and I can see Alcaraz struggling.
Valentin Vacherot v Aleksandar Kovacevic
The 2026 season was always going to be opportunity for Vacherot, although whether he would grab it with both hands was open to question.
He famously qualified for and won last year’s Shanghai Masters, propelling himself into the elite from outside the top 200.
It was a huge leap and many questioned whether he’d be able to justify his position towards the top of the rankings.
The truth is he’s done pretty well, without really suggesting he’d challenge for a top title again.
His best effort came in Monte Carlo where he did make the last four but shortly after that came an injury which forced him out of Wimbledon. Since returning, he’s gone just 1-4 on the tour and has looked well below his best.
He arrives in New York having lost four on the spin.
Kovacevic could well take advantage.
The American has enjoyed a timely return to form, reaching the quarter-finals in Winston-Salem last week where his serve was in good working order – an ideal tonic after a tough run.
He was a semi-finalist on quick hardcourts in Brisbane at the start of the year and should find conditions to his liking here.
With neither man great on return, I would not be surprised for tie-breaks to play a significant part here and that’s where Kovacevic’s greater confidence could prove crucial.
He’ll also know he’s won two of the pair’s three previous meetings, as well as the only one played on a hardcourt.
Jurij Rodionov v Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
All is not well in the world of Mpetshi Perricard, the Frenchman with arguably the biggest serve in tennis.
He arrives in New York having lost five in a row and, most worryingly, his serve has been broken 17 times across those matches. That’s a high number for a man who has long prided himself on his booming first ball.
That big serve – and poor return game – has often seen Mpetshi Perricard involved in a large number of tie-breaks but, again, that’s changed of late.
There has been no tie-break in five of his last seven matches which piqued my interest in the 7/2 being offered about no breaker here.
It made me look a big deeper and I also discovered that Rodionov didn’t play a tie-break in any of his qualifying matches, while only one of Mpetshi Perricard’s seven previous sets at the US Open went the distance.
Of course, it’s best-of-five in the Slams, so we need to factor that into our calculations but 7/2 still feels a pretty big price.
I’ve struggled to find an underdog I’m particularly keen on for Monday’s action – and after Sunday’s long shot lost from match points up, that may not be a bad thing – so backing this looks a tempting alternative.
Posted 0730 BST on 31/08/2026
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