Jon Newcombe provides his best bets for the opening weekend of the Six Nations, with a preview and analysis for every match.
Six Nations betting tips: Week one
1pt France (-17.5) to win the second-half handicap at 5/6 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt second half most tries in Ireland v Wales at 10/11 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Scotland to beat England at 11/8 (General)
1pt under 33.5 points in Scotland v England at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Sam Johnson anytime try-scorer at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
France v Italy
Kick-off time: Sunday, 1500 GMT
Venue: Stade de France
Where to watch: ITV
Best bet: France (-17.5) to win the second-half handicap
Key stats
- Rookie referee Mike Adamson might be over keen on the whistle initially, cutting down on ball-in-play time and France’s ability to pile on the points
- France have won their last 11 meetings with Italy, dating back to a 23-18 loss in February 2013
- The smallest margin in these 11 meetings was two points in 2016 (23-21); the largest 40 points (50-10) in 2021
Noting is more certain in life than death, paying taxes and an Italian defeat in the Six Nations. Their record losing run is now at 32 matches and does not look like ending any time soon.
Italy do not have the physicality in defence to stop the opposition at the gain line and France’s heavy runners ran amok in winning 50-10 in Rome last year. Anything other than repeat performance from the pre-tournament favourites would be a big shock.
Italy will go into the game all guns blazing under new head coach Kieran Crowley but their ability to last the 80 minutes is questionable.
It may take some time for Les Bleus to get going after what has been a Covid-disrupted preparation and for that reason some nerves come with backing them to overcome the 35-point handicap.
It’s probably best to leave that one alone and go for the second-half handicap instead, which is listed at 17.5.
Ireland v Wales
Kick-off time: Saturday, 1415 GMT
Venue: Aviva Stadium
Where to watch: ITV
Best bet: Second half to be the half with most tries at 10/11
Key stats
- Ireland have won 27 out of their last 29 games at the Aviva Stadium
- Wales haven’t beaten Ireland in Dublin since 2012
- Ireland and Wales kicked the ball in open play more than any other sides in the 2021 Six Nations - tries could be in short supply
- Ireland have world-class players in the pack
- Wales are fielding their seventh different centre partnership in as many Tests - ball distribution and defence could be an issue
- Injury-hit Wales go into a Six Nations without leader and talisman Alun Wyn Jones for the first time since 2005
Both teams have opted to ignore the advice of World Rugby and will play in their traditional green and red jerseys, two very distinctive colours for the majority but not for those roughly eight percent of colour blind fans that the governing body wants to help.
Regardless, there is nothing blurred in how the bookies see this one going with Ireland strong favourites to get off to a winning start, and rightly so. Four of the Ireland starting pack – Tadhg Furlong, Caelan Doris, Josh van der Flier and Jack Conan – would arguably make it into a World XV at the present moment in time, which is more than can be said for injury-hit Wales.
Wales look vulnerable in midfield as well as upfront and Josh Adams, fine player that he is, has only two games of professional rugby behind him at centre - his partnership with Nick Tompkins is untried and untested. Ireland’s midfield duo of crash-ball merchant Bundee Aki and the probing Garry Ringrose are well placed to expose any fault lines there.
That said, Wales still have decent players and with people like Louis Rees-Zammit on the wing, anything can happen, it is just disputable whether those inside have the ability to get him the ball in time and space.
We expect a cagey kicking duel to deliver few tries in the first half as Johnny Sexton and Dan Biggar trade penalties, but Ireland to win by a double-figure margin after a more open second half. Asking them to cover 14 points against the defending champions might be a step too far and backing the majority of tries to come after the interval is recommended.
Scotland v England
Kick-off time: Saturday, 1645 GMT
Venue: Aviva Stadium
Where to watch: BBC
Best bet: Scotland to win
Key stats
- The last eight Calcutta Cup matches at Murrayfield have all produced fewer than 40 points
- Scotland are the Calcutta Cup holders
- Scotland have 90 more caps in their starting XV
- Tom Curry, 23, is England’s youngest captain since Will Carling and averages more penalties than anyone else in the Premiership (2.7 per game)
- Scotland centres score a disproportionate number of tries in recent Calcutta Cup fixtures (40 percent in the last 10 years) - and there are question marks over Elliot Daly’s ability at centre
Eddie Jones argues that his team are underdogs at Murrayfield, and for once rugby’s chief kidologist might be right. The bookies don’t quite see it that way, though, with Scotland +3 on the handicap.
Scotland are fortified by the return of big players like Lions prop Rory Sutherland and tackling machine Jonny Gray and will lay down a formidable challenge to what is something of an experimental England team.
Owen Farrell’s replacement at fly-half, Marcus Smith, has already shown himself to be what the Americans would call a ‘clutch’ player in delivering when the pressure is on, but’s that at club level and this will be a more serious test altogether.
Love him or loathe him, Farrell has been a big player for England in games like this, contributing nearly 50 percent of England’s points in nine Calcutta Cup appearances, and the worry is his absence will be keenly felt in a cauldron-like atmosphere.
Inevitably not everything will go according to England’s plan and it will be interesting to see how Farrell’s replacement as captain, Tom Curry, shapes up in controlling the likes of Ellis Genge and Kyle Sinckler, who the Scots will inevitably try to wind up.
Referee Ben O’Keefe actually handed Genge his one and only international yellow card in the win against Wales in March 2020 when Manu Tuilagi was sent off. Curry is one of the best in the world at what he does but is prone to giving penalties away and it could end up being a frustrating time all round for England.
Scotland then look the value to win a low-scoring game and at 10/1 (Sky Bet), we'll take centre Sam Johnson to cross for what could be a crucial try.
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