Six Nations 2022 tips: Ireland backed for glory
Jon Newcombe, from the Rugby Tipster, is backing Ireland for success in the 2022 Six Nations, which could prove the most competitive in the tournament's history.
Rugby union betting tips: Six Nations
1pt Ireland to win the Six Nations at 3/1 (General)
2pts No Grand Slam winner at 5/6 (Boylesports)
Reasons to back Ireland to win Six Nations
- Well-coached and well-balanced
- Three home games at fortress Aviva Stadium
- Relatively clean bill of health
- High on confidence
- Question marks over rivals
It may be a simplistic approach to take but I'm going to go for a team that looks guaranteed to get off to winning start as our outright pick for the Six Nations title.
As the captains and coaches reminded us at length when talking to the media at the Six Nations launch last week, momentum is everything in a short and intense competition such as this.
Only three times in 22 editions of the Championship has a team lost their first match and gone on to lift the trophy. France did it in 2006, Wales in 2013 and England in 2020.
So, looking at the first set of fixtures, in my opinion only France and Ireland are cast-iron certainties to win. France have the easier job on their hands with a visit from Italy, while Ireland welcome Wales, the reigning champions, to the Aviva Stadium in Dublin.
Ireland have just two defeats to their name there in a five-year span covering 28 matches, and with three home games in this year’s tournament, that sort of record cannot be discounted.
In addition to Wales, Italy and Scotland will make the trip across the Irish Sea, in rounds three and five respectively. That leaves Ireland with arguably the two toughest assignments on the road – France and England away – but Andy Farrell’s side should have the wherewithal and the confidence to win one of those fixtures to add to the three at home.
After a strong Autumn Nations Series for all the Home Nations and France, this could be the most competitive Six Nations yet and four wins out of five (No Grand Slam 5/6 with Boylesports) should suffice.
Putting history and the fixture list to one side, this Ireland team is brimming with confidence after a run of eight straight victories and scoring points – a failing of theirs in the latter years of the Joe Schmidt era and also at the start of Farrell’s reign.
Six Nations round one fixtures
Saturday February 5
- Ireland v Wales – Aviva Stadium; 1415 GMT; ITV1; Ref - Jaco Peyper
- Scotland v England – Murrayfield; 1645 GMT; BBC One; Ref - Ben O’Keeffe
Sunday February 6
- France v Italy – Stade de France; 1500 GMT; ITV1; Ref - Mike Adamson
Ireland look a well-balanced team now with world-class players in several positions and have been backed down from 4/1 to 3/1, although they’re still third favourites behind France and England.
Leading tight-head Tadhg Furlong is touch-and-go for the start of the Championship and maverick winger James Lowe is currently sidelined, but apart from that, they are missing very few frontline players.
Caelan Doris and Jack Conan would be considered by most to be two of the best back-rows in world rugby right now, James Ryan is a tour de force at lock and no doubt still fuming from his Lions omission, while Johnny Sexton and a midfield pairing of Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose outside of him takes some beating. In the back three, the electric Hugo Keenan is not yet in the same class as Rob Kearney but he is fast getting there.
France still falling short
Obviously France represent formidable opponents as they look to claim their first Six Nations title since 2010, but Fabien Galthie’s side has yet to convince us they are ready to become the bride not the bridesmaids. Runners-up in 2020 and 2021, Les Bleus also came up just short in the hastily-arranged Autumn Nations Cup in 2020, admittedly with a weakened team, and lost a Test series in Australia last summer that they really should have won.
France did produce a clean sweep of wins last Autumn, a terrific campaign culminating in a famous win over the All Blacks, but Les Bleus still seem to have the tendency to find a banana skin to slip up on at a critical point somewhere down the line.
The Rugby World Cup 2023 hosts have had a COVID-19 disrupted build-up and while the opening game against Italy should enable them to shake off some rust without too much bother, you cannot help but think some of their leading lights – such as World Rugby Player of the Year Antoine Dupont – might still be a little undercooked for what is sure to be a full-on, physical encounter against Ireland in round two, a match that could well go a long way in deciding the destiny of the title.
England to be much stronger than 2021
As for England, an improvement on last year’s fifth-place finish surely must happen. But this is an England squad light on experience and caps relative to those who have triumphed in the past and Scotland away is not a match suited to finding your feet in. Love him or loathe him, Owen Farrell is a big loss. Farrell has been top point-scorer in the Six Nations twice and gives a sense of reassurance whenever he plays.
Scotland can be a class act on their day, and the odds of 14/1 on them being tournament top try-scorers are appealing, but Gregor Townsend’s side are still too inconsistent to be considered for a first-ever Six Nations title.
In recent times, defending champions Wales have followed up one good year with one bad, and all the signs are that the trend will continue. No team could afford to lose the class and experience of natural-born leaders like Alun Wyn Jones, Ken Owens and Justin Tipuric, not to mention the likes of George North, and not be adversely affected.
It is a shot to nothing for their injury-ravaged team, and we believe they’ll get exactly that – nothing, other than a routine win over perennial wooden-spoonists Italy, of course.
Posted at 1015 GMT on 31/01/22
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