Rugby World Cup betting tips: Preview of the second weekend including France v Uruguay and England v Japan
Jon Newcombe bagged even-money and 5/1 winners from two bets on Thursday. Get his selections for this weekend's Rugby World Cup action.
Rugby World Cup betting tips: Second weekend
3pts South Africa to win 2nd half handicap (-34) at 10/11 (William Hill)
2pts Fiji to win on the handicap (+7) v Australia at evens (bet365)
2pts Australia v Fiji over 51.5 match points at 10/11 (bet365, 888sport)
1pt England to beat Japan by 16-20 points at 13/2 (Betway, bet365)
South Africa v Romania
- Sunday, 1400 BST - ITV
South Africa have picked a team packed with pace that, with the best will in the world, Romania will struggle to deal with. This Romanian team appears to be the weakest to play at a World Cup yet, and while they took the lead against Ireland, it was largely downhill from there.
Ireland won 82-8 and even though the Springboks have made wholesale changes for their clash in Bordeaux on Sunday, the reigning world champions will be disappointed if they don’t match or beat that margin against a ponderous team who don’t look to have too many points in them.
The Oaks shipped 35 points to Ireland in the final quarter after being run off their feet and South Africa’s matchday 23 wont show any mercy, either. Back then to win on the SECOND-HALF HANDICAP.
Ireland v Tonga
- Saturday, 2000 BST - ITV
It might be a different story in Nantes, though, as Ireland take on Tonga. Tonga’s pre-tournament results may not be anything to write home about but if they have achieved one thing in 2023, it is finding a way to disrupt the opposition.
In some ways, Tonga are very Ireland-like in their ability to win mauls, turnover mauls, and win maul penalties. And they don’t cave in when they let the opposition into their 22, either, conceding a very respectable average of just 1.7 points per entry.
While Ireland have selected a strong squad – stronger than the one that laboured to a pre-World Cup 17-13 win against Samoa – and may cover the 35 points, but it won't necessarily be easy and no bet is the advice.
England v Japan
- Sunday, 2000 BST - ITV
As for England, they are so used to having a man sent off (four this year alone), playing with 14 men didn’t bother them in their heroic 27-10 win against Argentina in round one.
Keeping 15 on the field will be a bonus against the Japanese who we think will struggle to get a proper foothold in this match.
Japan look tailor-made opposition for England’s kick-chase, set-piece dominated game and we expect Steve Borthwick’s men to do what they have to do and get a second win, but by more than 22 points may be a push for a team that struggle to rack up the tries.
Backing ENGLAND TO WIN BY 16-20 POINTS looks a fun option for Sunday night at a nice price.
Best of the rest
In the Pool D clash between Samoa and Chile, the latter look over-priced at 9/2 to score the first try against a team playing in its first game of the tournament.
Which leaves us with the pick of the round by some distance, Australia against Fiji, kick-off 17:45pm on Sunday.
Australia finally got their first win under Eddie Jones in his second spell in charge in seeing off a Georgia side that only got going in the second half.
Fiji will be a big step-up and as long as the Islanders can overcome the disappointment of their crushing 32-26 loss to Wales, they are worth backing with a SEVEN-POINT START.
For Fiji, it is win or bust.
Posted at 1140 BST on 15/09/23
France v Uruguay
- 2000 BST, Thursday September 14 (ITV)
2pts Uruguay (+51) to beat France on the handicap at evens (bet365)
1pt Uruguay to score the first try of the match at 5/1 (BoyleSports)
Depending on whether you glass is half empty – as it was for most World Cup fans in France’s under-stocked bars – or half full, this weekend’s matches can be looked at in two different ways.
In terms of match betting, the shortness of quality is matched by the odds. But with it being a David versus Goliath weekend, where the big guns come up against some of the so-called minnows, there are opportunities to read between handicap lines and pick out some profit-making selections.
Uruguay enter the World Cup tonight (Thursday) and are a far better team than many casual fans give them credit for. Los Teros went to the last World Cup with only a handful of full-time professionals and shocked Fiji, while this time around the squad is made up entirely of people paid to play the game.
The majority turn out for Peñarol, the two-time defending South American champions, giving Uruguay a togetherness, a bond, that will see them through tough times. Obviously, France’s players play up another level or two, week in week out, but you’d wager Los Teros being better than +51.
What should help, is the fact France like to keep the scoreboard ticking over three points at a time through penalty goals, which means it will take them longer to accumulate the points they need to beat the handicapper. Also, France only converted 29% of their entries into the All Blacks’ 22 into points in their opening match, so they have yet to get into their attacking stride.
Underdogs scoring first was a bit of a trend in round one and Los Teros are 5/1 to do so against Les Bleus. Although early prices as big as 8/1 were snaffled up earlier in the week, 5/1 remains value. Also note that Paddy Power go 14/1 for the first scoring play of the match to be a Uruguay try, which is an interesting alternative.
Typically, they have scored early on this year, with three of their eight tries coming inside the opening 20 minutes of the game, so the stats back this up as a valid bet.
Wales v Portugal
- Saturday, 1645 BST - ITV
2pts Portugal to score more than 13.5 points at evens (BoyleSports)
1pt Portugal to score the first try of the match at 11/2 (BoyleSports)
1pt Wales v Portugal more than 9.5 tries in the match at 19/10 (BoyleSports)
Wales' game against Fiji will take some beating for drama but this has all the makings of a game that could surpass most people's expectations.
Even in this analytical age, emotion plays a huge part in sport, and Os Lobos have it in abundance. Portugal will be well up for this as they make their return to the World Cup for the first time in 16 years, the locals will be on their side (France has a huge Portuguese diaspora), and most importantly, they can play. Patrice Lagisquet has brought the French flair to Portugal and they love to entertain.
Os Lobos know that their strength is not keeping the game tight, they want it fast and loose to give their exciting backs every opportunity to shine. Nuno Sousa Guedes is a brilliant full-back and Raffaele Storti is a proven, natural finisher. But, in truth, you could pick out any of their backs as ‘ones to watch’.
Wales have their own attacking threats, and with Louis Rees-Zammit looking to build on his lively display against France, it could be that they score two tries to every one of Portugal’s, if Tomos Williams and Gareth Anscombe can gel quickly in their first start together at half-back in nearly a year.
Most fans will expect this to be nice and easy, but we expect Portugal to fire more than a few shots and score some tries and points in return, so those are two markets we’re taking a look at, on this occasion, rather than the +31 handicap in Os Lobos’ favour.
BoyleSports make Portugal 11/2 to score the first try, a bet we'll try again after success with Uruguay on Thursday, while the same firm bet almost 2/1 that the match produces 10 or more tries, and evens about Portugal scoring 14 or more points. Paddy Power are 5/6 about the latter while bet365 offer evens 15 or more points, giving punters options depending on where they can bet.
The message from us is that in a likely high-scoring game, Portugal can more than play their part.
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