Rugby World Cup betting tips: France v New Zealand preview plus other opening weekend games
The Rugby World Cup gets under way with France v New Zealand on Friday night so Jon Newcombe brings you his opening weekend tips.
Rugby union betting tips: World Cup opening weekend
2pts South Africa (-11) to win on the first half handicap v Scotland at 12/5 (BetVictor)
South Africa v Scotland
- 1645BST, Sunday September 10 (ITV)
Scotland go into this World Cup high on confidence and expecting great things but, without being too damning, haven’t we heard this all before?
As chaotic as Finn Russell will try and make it, the game still boils down to who wins the set-piece, and there are no better teams than the Springboks in this regard.
Remarkably, South Africa have yet to lose a scrum on their own put-in this year and their lineout has fired exceptionally well, too, so expect them to squeeze the life out of a Scotland side that blows hot and cold between halves.
Both teams are amongst the most clinical this year when it comes to converting chances inside the opposition 22. And with both teams not being shy of a try from a lineout drive, it is tempting to go for a hooker to get on the scoresheet. But, at the same time, you cannot ignore the fact that the speedsters on either side are scoring tries for fun.
Springbok wingers have crossed the whitewash in nine of the last 10 Tests and out of the two selected by Jacques Nienaber, Kurt-Lee Arendse looks the sharpest.
With South Africa being short odds on to win – and with the power they have coming off the bench, they should start their title defence with a ‘w’ – we’re inclined to look at the HT handicap market because, potentially, there is some value to be had.
Scotland are a team of two halves – this year they have scored 70% of their points after the break and conceded 61% before the break. With this record in mind, South Africa could go for the jugular early on and cover an 11-point, first half deficit (12/5, BetVictor).
Best of the rest
1pt Argentina to beat England by 11-15 points at 9/1 (Betfred)
1pt Georgia to beat Australia at 14/1 (General)
2pts Georgia (+12) to beat Australia at 12/5 (BoyleSports)
Over in Marseille, Argentina can be backed with confidence to beat an out-of-sorts England (Saturday September 9, 2000 BST) potentially by as many as 11-15 points, but Fiji’s chances against Wales were dealt a blow with the news that star fly-half Caleb Muntz is out of the tournament. That brings it back to much more of a 50:50 game in our eyes.
Looking at the best of the rest, Georgia are massively over-priced at 14/1 to beat Australia (Saturday September 9, 1700 BST).
Yes, the Wallabies have got a rich World Cup history but that’s all it is, history. Eddie Jones’ second spell in charge of the team has been a disaster to date, and they go into the match with a callow 10 who looks out of his depth in Carter Gordon.
Tier one teams do not frighten Georgia anymore, they consider themselves to be one. So 14/1 is worth a pound of anyone’s money but if you prefer to play it a bit safer, the Lelos would be confident of delivering with a 12-point head start (12/5 BoyleSports).
Japan’s game against tournament newcomers Chile is another mismatch in the odds but not entirely so on the pitch. While we are not suggesting the Brave Blossoms will get a taste of their own medicine after shocking South Africa in 2015, Los Condores’ unity as a team – the majority play for South American pro outfit Selknam – should stand them in good stead.
Chile are well-coached by a World Cup veteran in Pablo Lemoine and will feed off the emotional energy of the occasion.
More World Cup betting tips
World Cup: Opening weekend fixtures
Friday September 8
- France v New Zealand (8:15pm BST, Stade de France) ITV1 / ITVX
Saturday September 9
- Italy v Namibia (12pm, Stade Geoffroy-Guichard) ITV1 / ITVX
- Ireland v Romania (2:30pm, Stade de Bordeaux) ITV1 / ITVX
- Australia v Georgia (5pm, Stade de France) ITV1 / ITVX
- England v Argentina (8pm, Stade de Marseille) ITV1 / ITVX
Sunday September 10
- Japan v Chile (12pm, Stade de Toulouse) ITV1 / ITVX
- South Africa v Scotland (4:45pm, Stade de Marseille) ITV1 / ITVX
- Wales v Fiji (8pm, Stade de Bordeaux) ITV1 / ITVX
World Cup Pools
Pool A
- France
- New Zealand
- Italy
- Uruguay
- Namibia
Pool B
- South Africa
- Ireland
- Scotland
- Tonga
- Romania
Pool C
- Wales
- Australia
- Fiji
- Georgia
- Portugal
Pool D
- England
- Japan
- Argentina
- Samoa
- Chile
France v New Zealand
2pts New Zealand to beat France at 11/10 (Sky Bet, Coral)
1pt France half-time draw at full-time at 66/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Damian Penaud to be first try scorer at 11/1 (StarSports)
- 2015 BST, Friday September 8 (ITV)
Forget about teams peaking too early or a tournament taking a time to get into its stride, this World Cup is going to hit the ground running faster than our outright top try-scorer tip, Will Jordan.
Jordan has made the All Blacks’ starting XV for Friday’s blockbusting opener against hosts France in Paris, a match which will no doubt decide which of the teams will finish Pool A in first and second.
The winger has scored 23 tries in 25 Tests since making his All Blacks debut in 2020 but in his only previous appearance against France, he failed to cross in the 51 minutes he was on the pitch.
New Zealand have already had 16 different try-scorers this season across five tests played, with only Jordan, Aaron Smith, Rieko Ioane and Shannon Frizell crossing on more than one occasion, so they like to share the load.
So, for us, the New Zealand any-time, try-scorer bet comes with too many variables whereas with France there is a little bit more certainty with Damian Penaud enjoying the best run of his career, having scored in each of his last four Tests.
Penaud has been known to deliver for us inside the first 10 minutes of a match so it wouldn’t be that bold to go for him to score the first try of what promises to be a brilliant tournament, especially as Star Sports are offering 11/1, two points more than any of their rivals.
Weighed down by home expectation, France fluffed their opening lines the last time they staged the World Cup, losing to Argentina in their first match, and they will be nervous.
And don’t underestimate how important a miss 110kg centre Jonathan Danty will be for Fabian Galthie’s team. Danty is a key man in midfield and, statistically, Farnce’s chances of winning are nearly 20% better when he starts compared to his injury replacement, Yoham Moefana. Other key personnel like Cyril Baille, Paul Willemse and Romain Ntamack also sit this one out.
New Zealand will be looking for a huge response to their Twickenham hammering at the hands of South Africa, and as long as their misfiring lineout that night was just a one-off blip, which we think it will be, and their discipline is much-improved, they should win enough ball in key areas to put enough points on the board.
What they cannot afford to do is cough up 14 penalties for a second consecutive game because France have the leading points scorer in world rugby in 2023 in Thomas Ramos and punish any indiscretions more often than not.
Equally, France are on a record 14-match winning streak at home, so something has to give – or does it? There have only ever been three draws in the tournament’s history and the more speculative of you might consider this stands a good chance of being the next.
France have been a strong first-half team in 2023, averaging 18.3 points per game across the opening 40 minutes, so backing Les Bleus at half-time and the draw at 66/1 could be worth a shot to nothing.
To ward off accusations of sitting on the fence, for us, if we had to side with one team over the other, the All Blacks get our vote, simply based on their superior tournament pedigree.
New Zealand are the only team that have never lost a pool game, winning all 31 matches played. and as daft as it might sound on the back of an all-time record 33-5 defeat, they could edge this one at a best-priced 11/10.
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