Following the mid-season split, Grand Final winner Ian Millward previews Super League's Super Eights and Qualifiers. How will your side fare?
The teams that finished in the top four get an extra home game in the Super Eights and that is a huge advantage.
Castleford (evens with Sky Bet to win the Grand Final) will finish the year as Minor Premiers – and deservedly so. They score more points than any side in the competition – and concede less than any too. They play their systems, their style of play, more consistently than any side out there.
They are brilliantly led around the field by Luke Gale and the likes of Zak Hardaker add the finishing touches. They are fantastic to watch.
Leeds (11/2) will run second and after the disappointment of their Challenge Cup defeat to Hull, will be going all out for Old Trafford. They will look to sweep there on the back of the emotion of the imminent departures of Rob Burrow and Danny McGuire - it worked well in 2015 when Kevin Sinfield and Jamie Peacock went out on a high. The Rhinos have exposed some youngsters to first-grade rugby recently and that will help too in the battle for Manchester.
I take Hull (4/1) to finish third – with the only problem in my mind being their Wembley appearance. Will it cause them to lose focus?
Last year their season fizzled out and they missed out on Old Trafford but if they can keep their key players, Danny Houghton, Gareth Ellis and Marc Sneyd, out on the field they will be a handful for anyone.
Fourth? Well, that’s between arch rivals Wigan (evens for top four finish) and St Helens (11/10), two of my former clubs. The clash between the two (on September 1) will have a huge bearing on who plays semi-final football.
Saints have home advantage and are showing better cohesion under their new coach. Their strength is in the forwards and if Jonny Lomax can step up and support the outstanding form of Chris Percival that could swing things their way.
Wigan are in a Challenge Cup final and having failed to win for eight successive matches earlier in the season, they are now on a roll. Can they haul themselves off the canvas and complete the Double? The game at Saints – and not losing focus around Wembley – will be key. They need to sharpen up their attack but have players with a big-game pedigree.
Salford (6/5 for top four) have tough home games against Castleford and St Helens – plus three testing road trips. I only see them winning two more games.
For Wakefield (5/2) it’s even tougher with the home games – and again I can see them winning perhaps two more games this term. That won’t be enough to make the final four.
Huddersfield (9/1) have done well to finish in the top eight but will struggle to make much of in impact from here - for all they've been one of the form teams in the competition over the last eight weeks.
So what of the Super League Qualifiers?
Warrington (4/6 to finish top) should head this table. They have finally found some winning form and have by far the best squad to call on. The only thing that would set nerves jangling would be defeat in the first game at Widnes.
During the regular season they’ve shown they struggle in adversity but win that first match and they're away and gone.
Catalans (4/1) have four home games – expect them to win all of those and run second. Injuries are the key for them – they need some of their big players back. They’ve struggled defensively this season but tighten up in that area and they’ll be OK.
Leigh (8/1) will be up for this – they are a team who are used to scrapping and are tough. They have passionate fans, who will be right behind them, and a tough set of forwards. They need to beat Hull KR at home to finish third – with away matches at Featherstone and London – but I see them winning four and doing enough to avoid the Million Pound Game.
Widnes (5/2 to win Million Pound Game) are the vulnerable Super League side for me. They only have three home games and have struggled to score points in Super League all season. They are the second worst defensive team too. They’ve missed Rhys Hanbury all season but Joe Mellor has returned and shown good form. He’s a ray of light for them.
The first game against Warrington is vital – lose there and it will be an uphill struggle.
So what of Hull KR (3/1)? Well, four home games – and the potential to win them all – gives them real hope. I think it’s a tall order but they have a real chance of going up – either by finishing in the three or via the MPG.
They are used to winning matches – which so many of these sides aren’t – and it will all boil down to how they handle the pressure in the closing weeks.
- Ian will return on Thursday with his betting verdict on the opening round of fixtures in the Super 8s and Qualifiers.
Posted at 1040 BST on 02/08/17.
