Ian Millward previews State Of Origin III as the series goes to a thrilling decider

Recommended bets: 

2pts Queensland (+2) to beat New South Wales at evens

1pt Queensland to win by 1-12 points at 21/10

1pt Cameron Munster to score the first try at 20/1

1pt Jarryd Hayne to score the first try at 12/1

1pt Cameron Munster to be Man of the Match at 25/1

1pt Boyd Cordner to be Man of the Match at 12/1

1pt Draw/Queensland in HT/FT market at 25/1

2pts over 31.5 total points at 10/11

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We made a profit on the last game after Queensland's dramatic victory over New South Wales to level the State Of Origin series and it is all to play for in what has been billed as the biggest game in the competition's history.  

Queensland have won 10 out of the last 11 series with only their dominance only punctuated by New South Wales back in 2014 and I have to go for another home victory at Suncorps Stadium. 

New South Wales won the first game this year easily in Brisbane on a fast surface where their forwards were able to dominate with too much speed for Queensland.

The next game in Sydney was on a slower surface as Queensland won after a nailbiting finish and I think the spine of their team which contains six players from Melbourne Storm - the best team in the NRL - can go out control this fixture. 

They are getting on in age and are a bit depleted in terms of numbers with Johnathan Thurston ruled out due to a shoulder injury for what was going to be his State Of Origin farewell.

But Thurston has been in the Queensland camp all week and will be introduced to the fans before the game to whip them up into a frenzy.

The Queensland players will be walking on water then in terms of atmosphere so it is going to be tough for NSW to handle that intensity for a full 80 minutes while their history in deciders in Brisbane reads just two victories from 11 attempts.

I think the vociferous sellout support will help the hosts buy a few cheap penalties and that means they can improve on a record of 13 wins from 20 at Suncorps Stadium.

Another key Queensland player is Cameron Munster and I like his chances in both the first tryscorer market and also as a possible for Man of the Match honours.

He makes his debut in State Of Origin under instense pressure but has an arrogance about him that can see him rise to the occasion while Queensland's preference to attack down the left flank makes him of interest for the game's opening try.

New South Wales do have some hope with the hosts missing key names and their captain Boyd Cordner could be the one from their ranks to back in the Man of the Match market.

He has been battling a calf injury and has been a doubt for the game but looks set to start and the way he leads from the front and shows such toughness is exactly the sort of qualities you need in a game of this magnitude. 

His team-mate Jarryd Hayne came in for plenty of criticism in the second game for making the wrong decisions when having an opportunity to score and I still think he is adjusting to life back in rugby league after a spell in the NFL.

His season has been disrupted by injuries and that has meant a lack of foundation but having said all that, he remains an elite athlete and a game-changer so is also well worth an interest in that first tryscorer market. 

State of Origin games tend to be low scoring but I can see points in this one. 

Keep in mind the fast surface and that points will be paramount with neither team unlikely to try and protect a lead so I am going to take the overs in total points as well. 

This is a massive sporting event in Australia and as ever, it will come down to who can keep their nerve and handle pressure.

As mentioned, I am with Queensland so will take them on the handicap with a small start and while neither outfit is dominant currently, my other recommendations are Draw/Queensland in the HT/FT market and a 1-12 point winning margin for the home side to round things off.  

Where to watch - Premier Sports, 1030BST Wednesday

Posted at 1100 BST on 11/07/17.