Rugby league betting tips: Ian Millward weekend preview
Two-time Challenge Cup winner Ian Millward previews sixth-round weekend with Hull among his best bets in the last 16.
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Recommended bets:
Featherstone v Halifax (+8) – Thursday, 2000 BST, Sky Sports 3
Only two points separate these two sides in the Championship currently and they played each other earlier this year with Featherstone winning 32-26. They scored a lot of points late in the game to wrap it up.
Featherstone have had a tough draw to get to this stage, beating Bradford, and home-ground advantage is always big at Featherstone. Rovers always seem to have points in them – their problems are at the other end.
I’m going for Featherstone here. They always do well in the early rounds of the Challenge Cup and I like them at home – they can win and cover the start.
Dewsbury (+36) v Wakefield – Friday, 2000 BST
It could be a big play to be on Dewsbury in this one at a small compact ground.
Wakefield have had some really great performances recently. They were down against Leigh last week but finished so strong.
I still think they are showing some signs of tiredness and it’s very easy to switch off mentally in a game they know they will win - and they will. They will just want to get through it and win – they won’t care about the start which looks big.
I like Dewsbury with that start. It’s a local derby and they will be really up for it. I think the tight ground will help minimise Wakefield’s points.
Hull v Catalans (+14) - Friday, 2000 BST
Luke Walsh is back after suspension for the Dragons but they still have 11 players out who would be in their matchday 17 – that’s way too many.
Gareth Ellis is still missing for Hull but Scott Taylor returns from international duty and I really fancy Hull here at home. Last week they finished very strongly to beat Widnes and they are building real momentum. Defensively they are returning to where they were last year.
Everthing looks stacked aginst Catalans and I expct Hull to win and cover.
Salford v Hull KR (+14) – Friday, 2000 BST, Sky Sports 3
This is a replay of the Million Pound Game from last season which Salford won to stay in Super League but that was hard on Hull KR, who were the better team on that occasion.
Rovers have three players return after missing out last week, three senior players, and can take real heart for this game.
When Salford played Toronto recently, Toronto gave them a good run for their money and once again they are dropping down to another level and will need to pick up mentally.
It’s a massive advantage for Hull KR to be coming in fresh with one focus firmly on this game. Salford, who had a big win but a hard game against Wigan last week, still have their main focus on the league.
With coach Tim Sheens having been at Salford last year, there looks a real opportunity for him to identify some areas to target and I like the chances of Hull KR covering the start here.
Castleford v St Helens (+10) – Saturday, 1430 BST, BBC One
This is a scary game for St Helens. It was once almost their right to be in the Challenge Cup final but it’s been a while since they’ve been there now (2008). Cas were at Wembley in 2014 and this is a much better team than their 2014 one.
They are averaging 36 points per game and, particularly at home, are scoring for fun.
Their attack is way above St Helens’ and defensively they are really hard to beat.
St Helens last week were very inconsistent against Warrington and are struggling for back-to-back wins.
This is a really tough road trip for them. Cas are one of the form teams of Super League and also have key players back after the representative games last week.
The most significant one is Luke Gale. He was very workmanlike in the England Test match and gives his side real composure.
Cas to win and cover in the big match of the round.
Warrington v Widnes (+14) – Sunday, 1500 BST, BBC Two
Widnes have been extremely disappointing with just two wins this year. Last week they led quite convincingly at half-time and then fell in a heap.
Warrngton come in on the back of a massive win over St Helens but even they have struggled to get back-to-back performances.
Home-ground advantage here is important in what is a local derby so you can throw out all the clichés about that.
With the return of some of their key players like Chris Hill and Stefan Ratchford, Warrington look too classy here.
They are a team who have owned making it through to the semi-finals and final of the Challenge Cup in recent years and it will be a massive form reversal if they don’t win and cover.
The rest
It will be worth taking a look at the team news for the other last-16 ties, both of which take place on Sunday.
Leeds and Wigan should have few problems in beating Barrow and Swinton respectively but the bookies were yet to produce handicap lines at time of writing – team news will clearly be key as there’s every chance the Super League teams will rest a few for these ties.
Wait to see who’s playing for considering a bet here.
NRL
Penrith v New Zealand (+2) - Saturday, 0600 BST, Premier Sports
Penrith were one of the NRL favourites at the start of the year but have been extremely inconsistent. Some of their key players played in the representative games last week and played well and will take confidence from that.
I fancy the Panthers here. They’ve got some real mobility to cause New Zealand some problems. I make them one of the best bets in the NRL this week – Penrith to win and cover.
Manly (+4) v Brisbane - Saturday, 1050 BST, Premier Sports
Manly are the nominal home team here but the game is being taken to Brisbane, who have a fantatsic record at home – particularly against Manly.
Brisbane have really gone to another level recently with the way their attack is and their movement of the ball is very enterprising.
They will move Manly around too much in this game and cause them problems.
Sydney v Parramatta (+6) - Sunday, 0700 BST, Premier Sports
This looks a very tight, even game but in halves Luke Keary and Mitchell Pearce, the Roosters may have the difference.
The Roosters get great service from their halves and I think they can also combat Parramatta’s big pack of forwards.
They will be too quick in the outside-backs for Parramatta and so I’m keen on the Roosters to win and cover.
Posted at 1615 BST on 11/05/17.
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