Rugby League betting tips: Ian Millward weekend preview
Super League-winning coach Ian Millward previews this weekend's rugby league and says England are in for a tough time against Samoa.
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England v Samoa (+6) – Saturday, 1040 BST
The last time these two met, in the 2014 Four Nations, England claimed a close win and I think they are in for another battle in Sydney.
I’m really keen on Samoa with the start. They’ve got a very talented squad with 15 of their 17 playing in the NRL.
As much as Luke Gale (pictured) is a very good half-back, I’m not sure if he and Kevin Brown are ready to inspire England to a win. England’s forwards are very solid but I think they will struggle to score points.
Samoa have got points in them though and I think they can cover the start and even have a chance to win.
BJ Leilua, of Canberra, and Tim Lafai, at St George Illawarra, in the centres have been in fine form and they also have an outstanding stand-off in Anthony Milford. I expect him to cause England some problems in this game.
They’ve got some really big, mobile forwards, chief among them being Junior Paulo. He’s a man mountain and I expect him to terrorise players like Gale and Brown defensively, playing a lot on the edge.
If Samoa control the ball and have a good completion rate, they will have too much for England. Their problem is they can be loose, both in defence and attack.
England will no doubt be looking towards the World Cup and the key thing for them here is they are coming up against a very physical team. Their coach, Wayne Bennett, will be looking for them to be clinical but also to be able to handle the pressure that they will be put under defensively.
He’ll want to see them in a high-pressure situation playing with a cool head. He’ll also want the percentages to be done effectively.
It will be important for them that full-back Stefan Ratchford and half-backs Gale and Brown step up.
The forward pack has strength from the start and from the bench. With four forwards on the bench, they are going to be very direct – keeping play in the middle of the field and going straight at Samoa’s forwards, trying to wear them out.
I don’t think there will be a lot of flair from England but a lot of go-forward play. Whether that's enough to beat Samoa, I'm not so sure.
Australia v New Zealand (+8) - Friday, 1100 BST, Premier Sports
Australia have completely dominated this game, the ANZAC Day Test. It’s been a long time since they lost it.
The key thing since Mal Meninga took over as coach is that in four Tests against New Zealand, Australia have not conceded more than eight points per game.
New Zealand do have a very impressive team but I think Australia have a better half-back combination in Cooper Cronk and Johnathan Thurston and I fully expect them to win and cover.
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Huddersfield (+12) v Castleford – Thursday, 2000 BST, Sky Sports 3
This will be a big test for Cas with several representative players out. Luke Gale has been the orchestrator of their attack, Zak Hardaker has been extremely good at the back and Mike McMeeken very good on the edge.
They should still beat Huddersfield but the Giants had a really good win in their last game (beating Leeds 31-12 at Headingley) and the return of Danny Brough is important for them.
I believe they can cover the start in this game. They’ll have taken a lot of confidence out of that Leeds game and with Cas having key players out, especially Gale, I can’t see why they can’t cause a bit of a surprise here. I’m not saying they will win but they’ve got enough points in them at home to cover.
Warrington v St Helens (scr) – Friday, 2000 BST, Sky Sports 2
I’m really keen on Saints here. They have a good record against Warrington.
While St Helens will be without Alex Walmsley and Mark Percival, you look at Warrington and they are decimated by injuries. It will obviously affect their attack. Joe Westerman is out, while Stefan Ratchford and Kevin Brown are away with England, as is Chris Hill, and Warrington always struggle when he’s not fit.
The Wolves were really poor last week, losing 34-10 to Hull.
In their previous four games they fell in against some weaker teams but against a stronger outfit last week they struggled.
Saints mauled Warrington 31-6 earlier in the season and can repeat the trick.
Wigan v Salford (scr) – Friday, 2000 BST
We’ve all been waiting for Salford to become inconsistent but that’s the one thing they haven’t done this season. I take my hat off to their staff and players.
Currently Salford’s defence and attack is better than Wigan’s – that must be the first time in Super League history that’s been the case at this stage of a season.
They’ve conceded fewer tries and scored more than Wigan and those are impressive numbers.
The problem is Salford have a disastrous record at Wigan but I think that the form they are in they will look at that as a new challenge and I think they will rise to the occasion.
Wigan are another side decimated by injuries and will be fielding a lot of young players in this one. A lot of their experienced players who could have helped them will be missing, too.
The cards look stacked against Wigan and I like the way Salford are playing – I take them to win this one.
Catalans v Leeds (+4) – Saturday, 1700 BST, Sky Sports 3
This is a hard one to evaluate. The problem with Catalans is defensively they’ve been very poor and they’ve still got many key players out which is affecting confidence in that defence.
Leeds won 46-10 in the reverse fixture but Ryan Hall and Kallum Watkins are out for them.
I’m finding this hard to judge but if pushed I’m going for Catalans, largely because they are at home. There were some chinks in Leeds’ armour last week against Huddersfield and Catalans could take advantage.
Leigh (+4) v Wakefield – Saturday, 1800 BST
Leigh to cover at home in this one is my best bet of the round.
Wakefield are on a roll but Sam Williams is a big loss this week.
Leigh are a different team at home – their performances on their own patch all year have been good – and they haven’t been too far off the pace just recently.
Wakefield could be expecting a bit of an easier game against Leigh but their hosts will be nice and fresh and I think they’ll get out of the blocks early and can dominate Wakefield in this game.
Widnes (+10) v Hull – Sunday, 1500 BST
Widnes are just a poor team. They’ve only won two games this season and just one of their last five. They have the worst defence and attacking record in the league – not impressive figures.
Hull also have the wood on them – they’ve won five of these sides' last six meetings. They’ve won their last three in a row, too, and are getting into form.
Scott Taylor is a big miss for the visitors as he's away on international duty. He’s a rough and tough forward who creates a presence. However, Hull have the players to cope whereas Widnes don’t have that presence in their forwards at the moment.
It’s Hull to win and cover for me in this one.
Posted at 1345 BST on 04/05/17.
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