Super League betting tips: Ian Millward's preview
Two-time Super League winner Ian Millward previews this week's games with Warrington fancied to sink Leeds on Friday.
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Wigan (+4) v Castleford – Thursday, 2000 BST, Sky Sports 2
Wigan have lost their last three games but they have won four of their last five encounters against Castleford.
It’s quite noticeable that when Sean O’Loughlin doesn’t play for Wigan, they do struggle to score points. Their biggest issue last season was an inability to score points and they’ve gone back into that trend in recent weeks.
In contrast, Cas can’t stop scoring points – they are averaging over 40a game which is quite incredible.
Wigan pride themselves on defence but they face the best attacking team this week.
I’m going for Cas here. They have had some very good wins over Wigan in the past and with O’Loughlin and some other key players out for Wigan - Olly Gildart being one – the visitors can win this one.
Warrington v Leeds (+4) – Friday, 2000 BST, Sky Sports 3
Warrington were very good value for their draw with Hull last week. They had tough decisions go against them, including a disallowed try by Mike Cooper, but the way they responded showed a really good attitude.
They’ve won four of their last five against Leeds and while the Rhinos have now won four in a row, they’ve had a very soft draw in those games.
Brett Ferres, their big back row, is out injured and although Stefan Ratchford is missing for the Wolves, I really like Warrington here and I make them one of the best bets of the weekend.
The last two weeks they’ve been impressive and they are at home. The scoreline was not a reflection of the game last week against Hull.
For me it’s Warrington to win and cover against a Leeds team I think could get found out in the coming weeks.
Hull v Salford (+6) – Friday, 2000 BST
Both teams have won four of their last five games which is outstanding, particularly Salford who have won three in a row.
I just think the key at the moment for Hull is their forwards – they should be too big and powerful for Salford in this one.
I acknowledge that Salford are one of the form teams in Super League and they were very impressive last week against St Helens.
One problem for Hull at the moment is Danny Houghton being out – he cleans up a lot of defensive efforts around the ruck – but I still make Hull one of my best bets of the week, at home with their big, powerful forwards. This is a tough road trip for Salford even though they are in form.
Leigh v Catalans (+4) – Friday, 2000 BST
Catalans have really struggled lately – they’ve now lost their last five games in a row. At the start of the season they were workmanlike and disciplined but now they’ve got key players out and they’ve lost confidence.
It’s been a rude awakening and the last thing that’s needed is the French team slipping out of Super League.
They are conceding too many points at the moment and this is a tough road trip.
Leigh have worked very hard mentally and physically. As I predicted in last week’s column, they took last week’s game for granted a bit. They were very loose in some of their actions but I’m going for them to hit back here and it could be a killer blow to Catalans’ season.
St Helens v Huddersfield (+14) – Friday, 2000 BST
This is a tough game for me to call as I’ve been extremely disappointed with both teams this season.
Huddersfield are conceding over 30 points a game and they’ve lost five in a row. Saints have won two out of five but that’s really poor for them too.
The upside for Huddersfield is they’ve had a good record over the last few years when going to St Helens but that’s the only thing going for them.
That said, just when I start to give St Helens some credit they come up with errors and a lack of direction in attack.
These are two teams out of form but I’m going to have to go for St Helens. When a team’s conceding 30 points a game they lack confidence and mental fortitude.
Saints will have a kicking game which will apply pressure. At home, I’ll go for them to win and cover.
Wakefield v Widnes (+10) – Friday, 2000 BST
Wakefield have won four of their last five which is really good form. Their forwards have got some punch in them and power. On the back of Sam Williams, they’ve been one of the most consistent teams so far this season.
Their opposition have only won one of their last five but have won four of the last five meetings with Wakefield.
This is game where Widnes, who have a decent start, will have a lot of confidence after last week’s victory at Leigh.
Wakefield are a team where everything has got to go for them to get the points and the way they’ve gone about that has been up the middle and getting physical for a while.
Widnes can cause them problems and I like them with the start after last week.
Posted at 1400 BST on 06/04/17.
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