Rugby league betting tips: Ian Millward's preview
Super League winner Ian Millward previews this week's games - plus selected games in the NRL - with Wakefield his bet of the week.
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Warrington v Wigan (+4) – Thursday, 2000 GMT, Sky Sports 1
These two played four times last year and it was two apiece but in the last two games the Warriors were too good, especially in the Grand Final.
Wigan are on an unbelievable run, having now won their last seven games and if you flip if the other way, Warrington have only won one of their last five official games – they are on a real downer at the moment.
Both teams have got key players out, more so Wigan, and Warrington have the advantage of playing at home.
However, the Wolves look disjointed at the attack end of things whereas Wigan have free-flowing attacking structures and a sound defence. So far this season they’ve conceded just 42 points in three games. Once again, their foundation for anything has been an ability to defend.
Warrington, on the other hand, have conceded 74 points and scored only 48 in their three games so far. They are not performing as a unit or as a team.
Many people, including the bookies it would seem, expect them to kickstart their season in this one but I’ve been really impressed by the form of George Williams and Thomas Leuluai for Wigan. Williams has been helped by the unselfish play and experience of Leuluai and I think they can go there and win and cover.
Hull v St Helens (+8) - Friday, 2000 GMT, Sky Sports 2
Hull have the wood on St Helens for a few seasons now and in the last five games this two sides have played, they’ve won four.
They are another team to have improved their attack last week and had a fantastic win (48-8 at Huddersfield).
The combination of Albert Kelly and Marc Sneyd looks more enterprising than anything St Helens have and one of the visitors’ biggest problems has been an inability to score points.
They are lacking a cutting edge and an ability to maintain pressure at the moment. It’s just 11 points scored per game for them so far and that’s not going to be good enough.
They don’t have the confidence away from home and don’t have a good record against Hull.
Hull have big forwards who will take a lot of energy out of the Saints team to leave them nothing for their attack.
Hull to win and cover for me.
Leeds v Catalans (scr) – Friday, 2000 GMT
Leeds were ordinary last week and it was probably one of the worst performances from them in a long time – they were really poor.
Cartalans have been really consistent and gone about their business professionally.
The points Leeds are leaking has been a problem and it continued last week. They’ve now leaked 100 points in four games and now they are going up against a very professional team in Catalans.
If I were a Leeds supporter, I’d be wondering when things are going to change. They are relying on too many youngsters and their senior players are not living up to their potential.
Catalans have won the last three convincingly, two of those in 2016.
I’m going for the Dragons here. They’ve been the better-performing team and more consistent; in contrast, Leeds are an average team at the moment.
Leigh v Huddersfield (+4) – Friday, 2000 GMT
Leigh have had a lot taken out of them emotionally recently after winning their first game since promotion.
At home they have been very, very impressive with regard their ability to go forward and they work very hard for each other.
I’m not a huge Huddersfield fan. They are leaking too many points and I don’t see enough consistency in their game.
I think Leigh will be a good team at home all year. I like the strength of their forwards and like being with them at home.
They are coming off a game in which they didn’t score a try (at Wigan) but I think they can score an early try in this one which will give them confidence. They can cover and beat Huddersfield.
Wakefield v Salford (scr) – Sunday, 1500 GMT
The last five games these teams have played, Salford have had the wood. The majority have been high-scoring games which has usually been a reflection of an inability to defend for long periods.
Despite that record, for me Wakefield are the bet of the round. I was really impressed with them last week against St Helens, more so at the back end of the game when they could have been vulnerable and lost the plot. Instead they pushed on to victory and negotiated the game very well when they got in front.
Sam Williams has as good a kicking game as anyone in Super League and they have some very good forwards, led by Craig Huby.
They are hard to beat at Wakefield and while both sides are in good form, I feel the hosts have a great chance. They can build on last week’s form and I’m backing them to win.
Widnes (+16) v Castleford – Sunday, 1500 GMT
Cas are in the best form of any team in the league and to have scored 140 points in three games is quite outstanding. They are averaging over 40 points a game and just 16 points conceded - they are brilliant figures.
The artificial surface should suit Cas as it’s made for free-flowing, open rugby league regardless of winter conditions.
However, after a couple of really good performances at home, if they lose any of their intensity they could become vulnerable.
This is not a ground which has been great to Castleford in the past but they played three times last year and the Tigers won twice.
I’m going with the Tigers – I think they will win but the Vikings can cover the start which is a big one.
They are a better team at home and last week their performance (in the draw at Catalans) caught the eye.
I’m not sure Cas can keep up their intensity. Form will get them the victory but I’m not sure about the covering the start.
NRL
New Zealand v Melbourne (scr) – Friday, 0700 GMT, Premier Sports
New Zealand have a fantastic record against Melbourne and the best front row in the world, Jesse Bromwich, the captain of Melbourne, is injured. In fact they have a couple of key players out.
I’m going for a low-scoring game – under 38.5 points. I expect it to be wet in New Zealand and both teams will lack some attacking flair. It looks a good opportunity to take the unders.
A night game in Auckland can often be tricky so I suggest you take the unders and get some joy.
Newcastle (+6) v Gold Coast – Saturday, 0400 GMT, Premier Sports
Newcastle are a team I expect to finish last but I also feel at home they’re a difficult team for opponents.
Their performances at home last season, despite finishing last, were pretty good and they’ve covered in five of their last seven home games.
They have a start at home in this one and last week Gold Coast were very rusty and looked a bit off the pace. Some players, especially the halves, struggled with combinations.
This is Newcastle’s first home game of the season and with the crowd behind them can cover the start.
Manly v South Sydney (+4) – Saturday, 0630 GMT, Premier Sports
South Sydney lost Greg Inglis during the week but Manly are decimated by the loss of three forwards out due to injury or suspension.
Manly’s ground was once a fortress but they have won only three of their last 13 at home which is quite poor.
Souths have got the ability to bounce back after a loss and they’ll need that after a poor start to the season last week.
The return of half-back Adam Reynolds should make a massive difference and I’ll happily side with them with the start.
Posted at 1535 GMT on 09/03/17.
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