Paul Casey leads the European Masters heading into Sunday's final round, but can he be caught? Ben Coley looks ahead.
Golf betting tips: European Masters
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There was a LIV Golf veteran who used to own a house at Crans-Montana in Monday's preview of the Omega European Masters, but not the one who leads. Instead of Sergio Garcia, who capitulated from third place to 45th during the back-nine of round three, it's Paul Casey who will take a three-shot advantage into Sunday and he's now just a shade bigger than evens to win for the first time in five years.
Casey hasn't been playing particularly well in general terms but when you go looking for clues that this might've been around the corner, there are a couple. He has a good Crans record and shot a career-best 63 in the final round last year, for one. Two, his best golf of 2026 came two starts ago when sixth behind Joaquin Niemann, while his final three rounds of what could be the final LIV event were also perfectly solid.
Still, not even the cheery 49-year-old would've expected to burst clear of this field with rounds of 64 and 63 and he did very well to defy a mid-round wobble on Saturday, two late birdies sending him clear of what's an otherwise bunched leaderboard.
It gives him an excellent chance to earn back full DP World Tour status and, whatever anyone's opinions on a player who did a complete volte face having initially been a critic of Saudi Arabia's involvement in sport before taking its money, we can all admire Casey's pledge to give every penny he wins this week to a fund set up following the catastrophic bar fire which took 41 lives in this town back in January.
Casey has a peculiar record when leading, because he's won five from 12, but has been better (three from three) with a one-shot lead than a wider one (two from nine). He's converted his last four DP World Tour leads, however, and on that basis along would look a knocking bet against some largely out-of-form or unproven opponents. Even if this is a record which spans a quarter of a century, we know Casey has class in abundance.
Front-runners have a good record here, too. You might not assume that would be the case, given the potential for big swings as we saw throughout round three. There are a lot of volatile holes at Crans and anything from two to seven is plausible on several of them. However, 13 of 26 clear leaders have won this over the past 30 years, with six more beaten in play-offs. All bar one finished in the top three. Plus, three renewals had co-leaders and two saw one of them go on to win. It's hard to knock that return if you're on, or want to be on, the favourite.
Of those in pursuit, Eugenio Chacarra has won twice this year, is full of confidence, and can putt far better than he has so far, so those seeking a sporting wager against Casey should gravitate towards him. I'm not one to rely too heavily on numbers and prefer nuance, an approach which could easily lead to finding holes in the favourite. It has been a long time for Casey and having smiled his way into the final group, things could get a good deal more serious now. If that's the case, Chacarra is the most likely to capitalise.
We saw Thriston Lawrence's halfway lead disappear very quickly over a tough opening four holes and even if Casey survives them, he'll see birdies and eagles going in up ahead at the short fifth, sixth and seventh holes. He made them all look very easy on Saturday but when you've something to lose that's not necessarily the case.
Chacarra, who is in the group ahead, looks the most dangerous but watch out too for his compatriot Angel Ayora from a shot further back, while Nacho Elvira is a winner this year who loves this course, and Erik van Rooyen is a proven PGA Tour champion. Any one of these could reel in Casey in no time and so could Max Steinlechner, clearly at home at altitude and a player with a very bright future.
So, I find myself stuck between a clear numbers argument in favour of Casey, and that nagging doubt as to how much it all means. This is a veteran playing without DP World Tour status having accepted a tournament invitation and vowed to play in honour of others. All these factors can be considered potential negatives but some could be framed as positives. That creates a lot of grey and removes any interest in backing him.
We'll sit back and see if Antoine Rozner can hole a putt or Harry Hall can leave us wondering what might have been, the Englishman having been sailing along when a nerve problem emerged out of nowhere on Friday. Back to full health on Saturday he played well, but at 10-under is without hope unless Casey stumbles and blows this tournament wide open, in which case a final-round 63 might just steal it.
That stumble happen, but if it does, one of those closer to Casey will take advantage. I'm just struggling to work out who, and the market seems to have them in the right order.
Posted at 16:20 BST on 05/09/26
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