Louis Bollard is back with his verdict on the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, with three bets ranging from 50/1 to 3/1 in his big-race preview.
F1 betting tips: Azerbaijan Grand Prix
3pts Alpine to have a top 5 finish at 25/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Williams to have a points finish at 3/1 (betway)
0.5pt Williams to have a double points finish at 50/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
- Follow Formula One expert Louis Bollard on X
Azerbaijan has been long awaited this year as the streets of Baku may bring out the best of the 2026 regulations as cars run out of power half way through the 2.2km main straight. Expect to see plenty of overtaking and yo-yo racing this Saturday.
The form line for Baku is the other outlier circuits of Monza and Monaco, both of which were emphatically won by Kimi Antonelli who is a general 11/10 favourite this weekend. Antonelli may well have things his own way again, but with the jeopardy posed by Baku, I'm hesitant to get involved at that price.
Instead, my preference is for another team that has thrived on these outlier circuits: ALPINE.
In Monaco, Pierre Gasly took a podium on the road before losing it, regaining it and losing it again three months later. The Alpine has stellar traction in low-speed configurations which translated to mixing it with the front runners in Monaco. This will translate well as two thirds of the Baku lap are low speed.
On the morning of the court ruling when Gasly lost that Monaco podium, he took pole in Monza. This time it was another key component of their package that did the trick: the Mercedes engine.
This engine has proved still to be the class of the field when it comes to energy-starved tracks, as seen in Monza, and we will see again this weekend. Baku is tailor-made for Alpine who can mix it with the front runners.
Gasly turned his pole position into a respectful 7th place in Monza, only three seconds behind Lewis Hamilton on merit.
Preference is to include Franco Colapinto rather than just sticking with Gasly, given his uptick in form last time out in Madrid as he bettered Gasly across the whole weekend.
Worries over for Williams?
WILLIAMS have had a torrid time since other cars began bringing upgrades to the European races. James Vowles' team are still running overweight but are finally bringing an upgrade package to bring them to the weight limit this weekend.
For the past few weekends Williams have been fighting Aston Martin, rather than fighting in the midfield. This package, combined with their Mercedes engine, can see them separate themselves from Haas and challenge for points for the first time in eight races.
Baku has been a happy hunting ground for Williams, who managed a podium with Sainz last year and with Stroll in 2017 with their low-drag philosophy proving key. They can have more joy this weekend with their first points finish since Monaco.
Other chances
George Russell
Has the machinery to separate himself from the field but tough to see him challenging his teammate. Needs to take an engine penalty but unlikely do so here. Was tough to leave him out of the staking plan at odds-against for a podium.
Max Verstappen
This is one of the circuits that may play into his strengths again. We were on him at a bigger price for his Monza podium than he is for this week, when he holds a similarly strong chance. Strong engine will help but expect a repeat of Monza at best where he gets beaten by the Mercedes.
McLaren
Poor VSC management cost Norris (and us) the win in Madrid. Despite being a street circuit too, Baku couldn't be more different to Madrid. This circuit is designed around McLaren's weaknesses with the low speed corners and high top speed requirements. They are vulnerable here without medium/high-speed corners.
Ferrari
Still suffering from straight line and deployment deficits in comparison to Mercedes. However, they may be the strongest car over sectors one and two which may mean they qualify well. Will get swallowed up by the Mercedes cars on race day, though.
Posted at 11:05 BST on 23/09/26
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
