Our highly profitable F1 tipster Louis Bollard is back to preview this weekend's Mexican Grand Prix, with three big-priced fancies making his staking plan.
F1 betting tips: Mexican Grand Prix
4pts Audi to score a points finish at evens (Paddy Power, Sky Bet, Betfair)
2pts Audi to score a double points finish at 10/1 (General)
1pt Nico Hulkenberg to earn a top six finish at 25/1 (General)
1pt Gabriel Bortoleto to earn a top six finish at 25/1 (General)
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Time to collect on Antonelli
Formula One crosses the border into Mexico for this weeks race where it looks like we will be collecting our antepost position on Kimi Antonelli to be world champion. It will take a freak set of results for Antonelli to not take top honours.
Mexico City is always an interesting track from a betting perspective. This is by far the highest altitude the cars will race at during the season at over 7,000 feet above sea level, making this the dominant factor in determining cars' performance.
Air to benefit Audi
The less dense air results in cars being able to run the highest level of downforce possible (Monaco spec), but they end up reaching speeds higher than Monza as there is little penalty for carrying more drag even on one of the longest straights on the calendar. This should benefit cars that are inherently draggy including McLaren and AUDI, as their usual penalty for carrying more downforce is nullified.
The other factor to consider is how each car's turbo handles the lack of oxygen in the air, with the larger the turbo the better as it can safely run at higher speeds without overheating, producing more power. We saw Red Bull and the junior team thrive here year after year with their Honda power unit being the best designed to cope with the altitude.
With new engines in 2026 it remains to be seen which manufacturer will have the edge in this scenario, with AUDI looking most likely. Audi has the largest turbo on the grid which has been a negative for most of the season. Most notably, it can be seen through their poor race starts as the turbo fails to spool up enough to get off the line quickly, a sharp contrast with Ferrari-engine cars who have the smallest turbo and the best starts.
While other cars, especially Ferrari will have to be mindful about overheating their smaller turbos by running them in overdrive, Audi has the most leeway here and will run closer to normal than the competition. Should the Audi get off the line well they are poised to be best of the rest, or even replicate Ollie Bearman's special result here last year should they get in front of a front runner, as the difficulty in overtaking at this track gives them a chance to hold off faster cars.
Outside of the turbo positives, the track requires a strong chassis which will favour Audi over their midfield rivals too. Audi sit eigith in the constructor standings with a measly 23 points but that's not reflective of the their real performance which is closer to the Alpine and Racing Bulls per the underlying data. Mexico City can be a happy hunting ground for Audi and we may see their best performance of the season.
Other Driver & Team Chances
- Kimi Antonelli
Has got the Mercedes upgrade working and looks to have the edge over the field. Should win the championship this weekend and has a big enough lead to not worry not taking risks. The altitude factor may bring others closer.
- Max Verstappen
Has always gone well here as he had a Honda engine which thrived at high altitude, doesn't have the same power unit but car worked well the highest altitude we've seen all year in Austria, albeit nowhere near 7000 feet above sea level. T1 needs bravery and he's full of it, see his 2021 start. Start line troubles may be an issue here with the long run to T1.
- Ferrari
Had a win chance in Austin and the car has gone well here in the past but the more emphasis placed on their small turbo with these regulations will hinder them. May need to run the turbo at a lower speed. Positive is the start is key and should they lead into the T1 they could play a part.
- Lando Norris
Austin was a better performance than it looked on the surface, with his race pace being phenomenal and gave him a shot at the podium from starting P8. The lack of penalty for having a draggy car will be a huge positive here, but their slow speed performance may be a problem especially in the stadium section.
- Aston Martin
An interesting weekend for them. Underlying data suggests they may have the best car on the grid through the corners, with the engine being what's holding them back (a long way back). Less dense air will help, and maybe Honda have gotten the altitude performance right again. One can only hope.
Posted at 11:50 GMT on 29/10/26
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