Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Over 5.5 Manchester City corners vs Liverpool (16:00) at 13/10 (General)
Well it's a return for this column after a couple of weeks off. Miss it? I thought not.
I temporary switched the freezing cold Leeds climate for Florida's heat but kept up with as much football as I could while I was away. It certainly passed the queueing time by checking the scores on a Saturday.
It's an FA Cup weekend which means we lose League One and the majority of League Two as well. Still, there's plenty of football happening across the continent to get stuck into.
There's no 'FA Cup Shocks' piece for this round due to the nature of the ties and the prices available. Instead, anything fancied in that competition will appear here.
So let's get into it.
Liverpool vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 16:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 21/20 | Draw 13/5 | Away 11/5
Your eyes do not deceive you - Manchester City are outsiders to win a Premier League game.
Decent outsiders too with some bookmakers going as big as 5/2 on Pep Guardiola's side leaving Anfield with all three points.
Hardly a surprise considering the contrasting forms of the two sides involved. City are now six without a win, five of which have been defeats, and blew a 3-0 lead to draw 3-3 with Feyenoord on Tuesday.
A 2-0 victory over Real Madrid made it six wins in a row for Liverpool and stretched their unbeaten run to a staggering 15 games. Remarkably, 14 of those have ended in victory.
An iconic #UCL comeback!
— Amazon Prime Video Sport (@primevideosport) November 26, 2024
All three goals for Feyenoord in the space of 14 second-half minutes 🤯#UCLonPrime pic.twitter.com/uchd8RBCyU
It's probably worth backing City as a value play because it's a rare treat to get them at such a price. That position as an outsider has had its effect on the other markets too.
OVER 5.5 CITY CORNERS is available at 13/10 which is generous considering their style of play, the likely game state and their continued efforts in hitting this marker.
During this winless run, City have taken at least six corners in four of those games - they've hit double figures in three of those.
And while Liverpool have been dominating games, their opponents have been seeing the set-pieces. Villa took nine corners in their recent defeat at Anfield, Brighton had seven.
With the Reds in such good form, we'd expect them to be leading at some stage. That will force City into attacking more and should ultimately lead to the ball being deflected behind.
While there are tempting prices in going for higher lines, I'm happy to settle on 6+ at odds-against.
Already advised
1pt Real Mallorca to score 2+ goals vs Valencia (20:00) at 7/4 (General)
0.75pt Jan Paul van Hecke to score anytime in Brighton vs Southampton (20:00) at 11/1 (General)
1pt Motherwell to beat Hibernian (15:00) at 9/5 (General)
1pt Over 11.5 corners in Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich (17:30) at 11/5 (BoyleSports)
0.5pt Waldemar Anton to score anytime in Dortmund vs Bayern at 25/1 (General)
0.75pt Eiran Cashin to score anytime in Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday (15:00) at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
Brighton vs Southampton
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 2/5 | Draw 19/5 | Away 11/2
It feels like a while since we've had a Friday Night Football in the Premier League. Brighton meet Southampton in a contest which should result in a home win.
The Saints sit bottom of the Premier League table following defeat to Liverpool last time out. One of those in completely laughable circumstances by being caught out in an attempt to pass out from the back.
It's their style and they are sticking with it. It's ultimately a style that should see them return to the Sky Bet Championship.
One of the many areas in which they've struggled this season is set-piece defending. That makes the 11/1 on JAN PAUL VAN HECKE TO SCORE ANYTIME worth backing.
The centre-back has posted a shot in two of his last three league appearances, with a season-high tally of two coming in their 1-1 away draw at Arsenal back in August.
He's actually yet to score for Brighton but has found the net at previous clubs. His 0.30 xG from four shots is the highest of any Brighton central defender.
In Southampton, Van Hecke faces a side who have conceded plenty of chances from corners and free-kicks. Only Leicester (6.05) have a higher expected goals against (xGA) from set-pieces than the Saints (5.93).
Both Everton centre-backs posted a shot in their recent meeting, with the same coming for all three from Stoke in the Carabao Cup clash.
Given that Brighton are expected to be on the front foot, and with their corner count likely to go high, Van Hecke looks slightly overpriced for a goal.
Real Mallorca vs Valencia
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Friday
- TV: LaLiga TV
- Home 21/20 | Draw 19/10 | Away 16/5
Friday's LaLiga action takes us to Mallorca, where Los Piratas welcome Valencia in a contest that should be conclude in a home victory.
Valencia's form on the road this season has seen them gain two points from a possible 18 - those being against bottom-half sides in Getafe and Leganes.
Rather than take the near even money on a home win, I'll side with the 7/4 on REAL MALLORCA TO SCORE 2+ GOALS.
That trip to Getafe saw Valencia's opponents creating plenty of opportunities despite it finishing 1-1 - the hosts could consider themselves unfortunate not to win the game.
While they may have only won 1-0 in their home encounter with Vallecano - a side in the bottom-half like Valencia - Mallorca posted a more considerable 2.03 expected goals (xG).
They face a struggling defence and one allowing plenty in terms of chances. Half of their away games this season have seen the opposition creating at least 2.0 xG.
This shouldn't be a game filled with end-to-end action but Mallorca have enough to find the net a couple of times.
Motherwell vs Hibernian
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 7/4 | Draw 12/5 | Away 7/5
A trip to Scotland on Saturday and a game in which the pricing of it has confused me a little.
I'll start off by saying that nothing points to this one being a classic but MOTHERWELL TO WIN is an interesting prospect at 7/4 generally.
Hibernian are woeful anyway but it's particularly the case away from home. They've gained just two points from a possible 18 in six games on the road.
Motherwell have won half of their home contests with two ending in defeat yet one of those was against Celtic. The attacking output does need to improve but their defensive set-up is solid.
Only Celtic (8.62) and Rangers (12.02) have conceded fewer than Motherwell (16.80) in terms of expected goals against (xGA) across their first 12 games of the season.
Hibs are the third-highest in this metric (20.92). Dundee found the net four times in their last away contest, with Dundee United also hitting three in October.
The 0-0 draw at Ross County was their only away clean sheet of the league campaign so even with Motherwell's attacking issues, they should see chances to strike.
The price on this makes it a bet worth having.
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 7/2 | Draw 10/3 | Away 8/13
A familiar story is being told in the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich leading the way and Borussia Dortmund stuck in a battle for the top-four.
It's no surprise then that Bayern are the short-priced favourites for success in Der Klassiker - the marketing term stuck on any contest between these two sides.
Vincent Kompany's side boast the division's best attack and its most solid defence. Dortmund haven't quite flowed going forward in the way that we've previously been accustomed to.
Just a normal day for Harry Kane 🤷♂️ pic.twitter.com/oCO6HEIMO4
— 🇺🇸 FC Bayern US 🇨🇦 (@FCBayernUS) November 26, 2024
But this should become a game with opportunities at both ends given its significance. At 11/5, I'm happy to go with OVER 11.5 CORNERS.
Dortmund see plenty of these in their home games anyway. Seven of their eight in front of their own supporters this season have seen them take at least seven.
Bayern meanwhile have hit double figures for corners taken in three of their last six away games across all competitions.
The match-up should suit this tally going high. The probability of Dortmund being behind in a home game leads to more attacks, more blocks and ultimately more corners.
Dortmund to take five or more corners is an appealing pick at 13/8 with 365, but I'm happy to side with the match corner count going 12 or more at 2/1 and above.
And with this in mind, my eye was also caught by the 25/1 general price on WALDEMAR ANTON TO SCORE ANYTIME.
The centre-back has a decent enough scoring rate considering his position on the pitch and he did find the net in the cup win over Phönix Lübeck back in August.
With goals expected, the price for Anton seems a little bit on the high side.
Odds correct at 0900 GMT (29/11/24)
Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 7/5 | Draw 11/5 | Away 19/10
Two sides battling with inconsistent form meet in Sunday's Sky Bet Championship offering with Derby welcoming Sheffield Wednesday to Pride Park.
The Rams have largely been picking up points but the draws have held them back. Remarkably, five of their last eight contests have ended 1-1.
Wednesday have been decent enough on the road and will carry some confidence going into this one. They sit 9th in the away standings, with ten points gained from a possible 24.
Derby have lost just two of the eight in front of their own supporters and set-pieces should prove to be a successful route for them given the match-up. At 18/1, EIRAN CASHIN TO SCORE ANYTIME provides appeal.
The Derby centre-back has established himself as their biggest aerial threat yet he hasn't scored this season. He's seen plenty of opportunities to do so, though.
Cashin has returned at least one shot in eight of his 15 outings this season - the 1.4 expected goals (xG) figure the highest of any Derby defender.
And it's an area where the Rams have delivered a threat throughout the season. The sit second for xG created from corners and free-kicks in the Championship, with the same applying to shots taken.
Wednesday are fourth for expected goals against (xGA) at set-pieces and that should mean Cashin gets opportunity to score. He registered a shot against Preston who sit one spot above the Owls in the metric mentioned there.
Odds correct at 0925 GMT (29/11/24)
Odds correct at 1515 GMT (28/11/24) unless otherwise stated
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