Football betting tips: Bundesliga
2pts Isak Johannesson 1+ total shots at 21/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Johannesson 2+ total shots at 11/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Johannesson 3+ total shots at 20/1 (Paddy Power)
The opening weekend of the Bundesliga season largely played out as expected with, of course, a couple of somewhat surprising results thrown in as well.
Elversberg's 3-2 triumph over Bayer Leverkusen was a lovely welcome the Germany's top-flight for the team from the town of just 13,000 people, while one of the sides involved in this week's column secured the same scoreline in a contest with European outfit Hoffenheim.
That, though, doesn't hide the fact that this should still be a difficult campaign for Köln. Friday delivers a tricky test at a Stuttgart outfit who were strong in front of their own supporters last season - Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund the only duo to leave with the maximum points on offer.
Bayern handed them another thrashing last week, with Michael Olise delivering an even money winner after his couple of efforts on target. This outing presents a strong chance to get going for the season.
The prices suggest that's exactly what's fancied.
Stuttgart vs Köln
- Kick-off: Friday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: BBC iPlayer, Bundesliga YouTube
- Live odds, form and stats
This is ultimately a meeting between sides expected to be at opposite ends of the table. Stuttgart have all eyes on Europe again while Köln's task is survival - it's unclear at this point whether these are achievable.
As ever with the Bundesliga, goals are on the agenda. You have to go up to the 3.5 line to push even money (over 3.5 is 10/11 as a general price) and it's hard to argue against that, even with some of the low-scorers we saw in the Friday slot last season.
The shots line is also a good indicator of the expected flow of this. Some bookmakers are setting it at 31 for the match, with the 12 for the visitors showing it may not be completely one-way traffic.
So, how do you tap into the value? Especially given the stats markets in this league can be so varied from bookmaker to bookmaker. ISAK JOHANNESSON is the name to target - more so than another Isak in Alexander who should be featuring in the Premier League's offering at the same time.
The Köln midfielder had a season to adjust to the level following his spell with Dusseldorf in the 2. Bundesliga and a look at his stats showed 0.4 shots per 90, but an adjustment this time around may open up the potential.
It appears that Johannesson has been given more attacking responsibility under René Wagner. The Köln boss took over as interim in March and kept the job in the summer, with the Icelandic international seeing an upturn in shots output in the final seven games of 25/26.
His shots on target per 90 average rose to 0.43 following the managerial change from 0.13 before. Yes, of course, there's a bigger sample size with the latter to contend with but it still offered encouraging signs.
And then the start to this campaign have delivered a shot in the win over Hoffenheim with two goals coming in a cup victory against Würzburger Kickers the week before.
The usage of Tom Krauß, Paul Okon-Engstler and Ellyes Skhiri in the Köln midfield last week demonstrated who the defensive responsibilities fell to. For Johannesson, it's almost a return to the #10 position he featured in at times for Dusseldorf - that campaign returned 11 goals and six assists in 32 outings.
He wasn't restricted to being further up the pitch but it certainly felt like he had more freedom to do so. It's worth siding with 1+ SHOTS at 21/20, 2+ at 11/2 and 3+ at 20s with stakes adjusted accordingly - these are top prices but a similar range is available on all three with multiple bookmakers.
Stuttgart should win on Friday night but the visitors may have a few chances. Considering these are just shots, not even with a need to be on target, I'm more than happy to side with the Köln man to continue his great start to the campaign.
Odds correct at 17:45 BST (02/09/26)
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