Football betting tips: Carabao Cup
2pts Under 3.5 goals at 20/23 (Betfair)
1pt Under 2.5 goals at 11/5 (Unibet)
1pt Cody Gakpo to score first at 11/2 (bet365, Paddy Power)
*All bets are in 90 minutes
BuildABet @ 19/1
- Under 2.5 goals
- Gakpo to score in 90mins
- Southampton (+2.0) goal handicap
One down within a minute, four down within 25, 5-0 down by half-time.
It’s the way he’d have wanted to go.
That the decisive blow to an inevitably doomed spell was delivered by perhaps the only person who would survive confession in the Russell Martin House of Footballing Evangelism - where under no circumstances must purity of ideology be compromised - will have been bittersweet.
The most empassioned defence of Ange Postecoglou's methods and style comes from a rival Premier League coach 😲
— Optus Sport (@OptusSport) December 13, 2024
Listen as Southampton's Russel Martin puts his support behind the Australian manager. pic.twitter.com/XqwQaUFUzM
While the now former Southampton manager ponders whether such zealotry was worthwhile, Ange Postecoglou will lead Tottenham into their own Carabao Cup quarter-final with renewed vigour, emboldened by further evidence for commitment to such one-dimensional tactics.
Simon Rusk, interim Saints manager for the visit of the current holders, Arne Slot's near-indestructible Liverpool, is unlikely to be so pious.
What are the best bets?
Fortunately for the man usually in charge of Southampton's under-21s, there is plenty more in his team’s favour than first appears when faced with the prospect of a team who have won 19, drawn three and lost once under their current manager.
Not only is it surely impossible for things to get any worse, but the solution to many of Saints' most glaring problems are simple, obvious and immediately fixable.
Martin’s uncompromising possession-based style has seen the team concede 10 league goals and 26 shots directly from errors already, as well as 108 shots on target - all three are the most in the Premier League.
When these sides met only three weeks ago Southampton produced one of their best performances of the season, unlucky to lose to a late Mo Salah penalty for handball having led 2-1.
In meetings with Liverpool (2-3), Arsenal (1-3) and Manchester City (0-1) Saints have been competitive, with those displays following a consistent theme: they had less of the ball than usual.
Southampton averaged 41% possession across those games. Meanwhile, in home matches against Manchester United, Chelsea and Tottenham where the aggregate scoreline is 1-13, their possession percentage jumps up to 45.
Expect a stubborn display of a different kind on Wednesday night, one that can give fans hope and players belief.
Boring boring Saints?
It may seem foolhardy to back UNDER 3.5 GOALS at 20/23 and to take the 11/5 about UNDER 2.5 GOALS but both are advised.
Such has been Southampton's way this season that their wild contests have helped to hide the very regular run-of-the-mill ones.
Remarkably, 50% of their league matches have seen under 2.5 goals, with only Arsenal, Ipswich and Crystal Palace being involved in more games of that type.
Five of Saints' last eight league fixtures have involved three goals or fewer, with three of those ending 1-0.
They sit third for most over 4.5 goals games as well; far more eye-catching.
As for Liverpool, 71% of their top-flight away matches have gone unders, with 50% in other competitions.
Cody the King of the Carabao
In a match where we're opposing goals, taking a generously priced Liverpool player to break the deadlock is a sensible way in.
At 11/2 it's worthwhile backing CODY GAKPO TO SCORE FIRST.
His record in the Carabao Cup is becoming quite ridiculous.
He scored in every round last season other than the final and has found the net twice in both rounds this term, against Brighton and West Ham.
Having gradually established himself as first choice under Slot this season it's unclear whether Gakpo will start given this competition is at the bottom of Liverpool's priority list.
By backing him to open the scoring we'll get our stake back should the Dutchman be on the bench when the first goal goes in. If he's named in the XI, take him in the anytime market at prices of 6/4 and above.
Team news
While on very awkward pundit duty for Prime Video given his side's 5-0 shellacking by Spurs, Aaron Ramsdale said he was hopeful of returning for this fixture.
Suspended defender Jack Stephens is Southampton's only confirmed absentee.
Liverpool full-back Andy Robertson is also banned after being sent off against Fulham, meaning Joe Gomez is likely to fill in at left-back in the absence of Kostas Tsimikas. Ibrahima Konate and Conor Bradley are also out, but Alexis Mac Allister is back from suspension.
Caoimhin Kelleher is likely to replace Alisson, while Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk will almost certainly make way for Darwin Nunez and Jarell Quansah.
Predicted line-ups
Southampton: Ramsdale; Sugawara, Walker-Peters, Harwood-Bellis, Bednarek, Manning; Aribo, Ugochukwu, Mateus Fernandes; Dibling, Onuachu, Armstrong.
Liverpool: Kelleher; Alexander-Arnold, Quansah, Van Dijk, Gomez; Mac Allister, Endo, Jones; Elliott, Gakpo, Nunez.
Match facts
- Southampton have eliminated Liverpool from the League Cup on three occasions (1960-61, 1999-00 and 2016-17); only Arsenal (6), Spurs (4) and Chelsea (4) have done so more often.
- Liverpool have won six of their last seven meetings with Southampton in all competitions (D1). They’ve scored 2+ goals in all seven of these games, netting at least three in each of the last four.
- Since losing 6-1 to Liverpool in the 2015-16 League Cup quarter-final, Southampton have progressed from each of their last two games at this stage, both 2-0 wins over Arsenal in 2016-17 and Man City in 2022-23.
- The holders of the League Cup have reached the quarter-final stage on 22 occasions previously and progressed from 18 of those, with only Norwich (1962-63), Chelsea (1998-99) and Man Utd (2010-11 and 2017-18) going out. It’s the first time Liverpool have got to this stage as holders since they won the competition in four seasons in a row between 1980-81 and 1983-84.
- Only three players have created more chances in the League Cup this season than Southampton’s Mateus Fernandes (8), who has two assists in three games for the Saints.
- Since the start of last season, Liverpool’s Cody Gakpo has three more goals in the League Cup than any other player (8), while the Dutchman has also had the most shots (25) and shots on target (14) of any player in the competition.
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (16/12/24)
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