Football betting tips: Euro 2024
1.5pt Draw at 14/5 (Betfair)
0.5pt Scotland win at 19/5 (BetMGM)
BuildABet @ 18/1
- Scotland (+1.0) handicap
- Scott McTominay 3+ tackles
- Scott McTominay to score anytime
Am I optimistic, unrealistic or just plain stupid to be willing to look past Scotland’s abysmal performance against Germany?
It could hardly have been worse for Steve Clarke’s side, with it pretty unclear from the first whistle what their actual game plan was.
Enormous gaps between defence, midfield and most crucially any blue shirt and white shirt made it an easy evening for the hosts.
That being said, trailing 2-0 at half-time with 11 players on the pitch is rarely terminal. Concede a third and go down to 10 men against a vastly superior opponent and we’re very much in to the old footballing cliche of damage limitation territory.
Damage limitation pic.twitter.com/ecphyeEtx6
— Bryan’s Gunn (@bryansgunn) March 4, 2024
I find it hard to believe Scotland’s players were executing a tactical masterplan by allowing Germany so much space, and consider it far more likely they froze on what was a huge occasion.
By giving them the benefit of the doubt, we can capitalise on a market overreaction to that 5-1 thrashing.
What are the best bets?
I don’t hate the 12/5 available for draw no bet, but the issue is that I actually think DRAW is the bet, at 14/5.
Switzerland were excellent in their opening match against Hungary, deservedly winning 3-1 to set this match up perfectly.
A draw almost certainly guarantees their place in the knockout stage, as only a heavy defeat by Germany would deny the Swiss a spot among the best third-placed finishers, while Scotland simply must not lose to keep their own hopes alive.
As I type, 10 of the 12 matchday one fixtures have been played with just one ending all square.
In the two previous 24-team editions of the European Championship, 2016 saw three draws in MD1 and five in MD2, with Euro 2020 a similar story as two draws became four.
As teams hedge in the second round of fixtures, this becomes a very viable betting avenue.
And Scotland have been here before.
An abject display against Czechia three years ago at Hampden left them on the floor heading into a clash with England at Wembley, but they performed superbly in battling to a goalless draw where they almost pinched victory.
Clarke’s ability to turn things around so quickly shouldn't be underestimated, and neither should their recent strong qualifying campaign - which included a 2-0 win over Spain - be forgotten.
Just so I’m not cursing my selection come Wednesday night, having thoroughly convinced myself that SCOTLAND will get a result, I’ll lay off half a point on the WIN too.
At the very least let's turn up this time lads, please.
Team news
With Scotland defender Ryan Porteous suspended, Grant Hanley is expected to come in.
Billy Gilmour missed out in favour of Ryan Christie on Friday but the Brighton man could come in to midfield. Lawrence Shankland is also pushing to displace Che Adams up front.
Switzerland striker Breel Embolo scored off the bench against Hungary and could start after returning from injury.
Denis Zakaria and Steven Zuber both missed out on that matchday squad through injury and will hope to have recovered in time to make the bench.
Predicted line-ups
Scotland XI: Gunn; Hanley, Hendry, Tierney; Ralston, Gilmour, McGregor, Robertson; McGinn, McTominay; Adams
Switzerland XI: Sommer; Schar, Akanji, Rodriguez; Widmer, Freuler, Xhaka, Aebischer; Vargas, Ndoye; Duah
Odds correct at 2100 BST (17/06/24)
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