Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Morgan Rogers 1+ assists at 11/2 (bet365)
BuildABet @ 22/1
- Morgan Rogers 1+ assists
- Aston Villa 5+ corners
- Pau Torres 1+ shots on target
A meeting of sides who both come into the contest on the back of consecutive victories. Much needed ones at that.
RB Leipzig's cup win over Eintracht Frankfurt last week brought an end to their six-game winless run - five of those had been defeats.
Aston Villa's success against Brentford saw them overcome an eight-game period without a win, although it should be noted that the last four on the road have all been defeats.
But they travel to a Leipzig side with five losses from five in Europe. Only goal difference keeps them off the bottom of the table and they need to win all three of their remaining fixtures to stand any chance of progression.
They've only found the net four times; Villa have conceded once. It's a flat Leipzig attack, one lacking the energy given to you by a certain drinks brand that you'll see the logo of when watching this (well, so I'm told anyway).
What are the best bets?
Under 2.5 goals is an interesting selection at 6/5 given the attacking and defensive showings of the sides involved.
But then this is Leipzig. The games can end up in unexplainable chaos. Logic often defies them.
I'm going to take something highlighted in the most recent edition of the Notebook column as the best bet in this game because the value is there.
At 11/2, I'm interested in MORGAN ROGERS 1+ ASSISTS.
He's been a creative element of this Villa team anyway but the chances have increased since switching to a wide position in the past couple of weeks.
The previous two league games - the home wins over Brentford and Southampton - have delivered a total of seven chances created. Those are personal season-high figures in a domestic game.
He also saw one coming in the 0-0 draw with Juventus in their last Champions League encounter.
Opportunities should come his way. They've conceded two or more in three of their European outings with the underlying numbers further highlighting their problems.
The ten goals they've shipped have come from an expected goals (xG) figure of 8.42. Villa continued to create even when the results weren't coming.
In a game that could go either way, I'd back the visitors to see a few good chances to strike and, based on recent performances, there's a good chance Rogers is the creator of a couple.
Team news
Leipzig remain without a host of players for the visit of Villa on Tuesday.
Castello Lukeba is serving a suspension after picking up his third yellow card of the campaign in the defeat to Inter, although he's one of those struggling with injury anyway.
The lively Xavi Simons is still out with an ankle problem, while El Chadaille Bitshiabu, Eljif Elmas, Yussuf Poulsen and David Raum are the others currently unavailable for Marco Rose.
For Villa, they're without Jacob Ramsey, while Leon Bailey is also set to miss out following a hamstring injury picked up in the win over Southampton.
Predicted line-ups
RB Leipzig XI: Gulacsi; Geertruida, Seiwald, Orban, Henrichs; Baumgartner, Haidara, Vermeeren, Nusa; Sesko, Openda.
Aston Villa XI: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne; Onana, Tielemans; Philogene, McGinn, Rogers; Watkins.
Match facts
- RB Leipzig and Aston Villa have never previously faced each other in Europe. However, the German side have lost each of their last four matches against English sides in the UEFA Champions League, while conceding 14 goals in those four games.
- This will be Aston Villa’s first away game against a German opponent in Europe since December 2008, in a 1-3 defeat to Hamburg in the UEFA Cup. Meanwhile, their last one in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League was in October 1981, in a 2-1 victory over Berliner FC Dynamo.
- RB Leipzig have lost each of their last five UEFA Champions League matches, all of which have been this season. If they lose here, it will be their longest ever losing streak in the competition, and the longest by a German side overall since Bayer Leverkusen in March 2003 (7).
- After winning their first three UEFA Champions League games of 2024-25, Aston Villa have failed to win their last two (D1 L1). The last time Unai Emery failed to win three consecutive group/league phase games with a single club in the competition was in September-November 2015 with Sevilla (4).
- German teams have lost all three of their matches against English sides in the UEFA Champions League this season, all without scoring a goal: Aston Villa 1-0 Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig 0-1 Liverpool and Liverpool 4-0 Bayer Leverkusen.
- RB Leipzig have averaged 386 high-intensity pressures per game in the UEFA Champions League this season; the second-most of any team in the tournament, only behind Sturm Graz (392.4). Meanwhile, Aston Villa rank 33rd out of 36 teams for high-intensity pressures per game in the competition this term (265.8).
- Aston Villa are the team with the highest percentage of their total passes being line-breaking passes in the UEFA Champions League this season (15.9%). Indeed, only two sides have made more line-breaking passes from their own half than Villa (211) this term: Bayer Leverkusen (241) and Juventus (216).
- Jhon Durán is Aston Villa’s top scorer in the UEFA Champions League this season (two goals), while no player has attempted more shots for them (9). This is despite the Colombian only being on the pitch for 35% of Villa’s match time in the competition this season (159/450).
- Benjamin Sesko has scored three of RB Leipzig’s four goals in the UEFA Champions League this season. Among teams to have netted more than once, Sesko has accounted for a higher percentage of his team’s goals than any other player in 2024-25 (75%).
- Aston Villa’s Morgan Rogers is one of only five players to have completed 10+ dribbles (18) and created 10+ chances from open play (10) in the UEFA Champions League this season, along with Vinícius Júnior, Florian Wirtz, Savinho, and Johan Bakayoko.
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (09/12/24)
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