Premier League football: Free betting tips for this weekend's games

Newcastle captain Jamaal Lascelles celebrates

David John is going for a treble in his betting preview of Sunday's Premier League action.

Sunday

Arsenal v Brighton (1200 BST)

It is two out of two wins this week for Arsene Wenger and the Gunners as an overly-excessive schedule in the eyes of the Frenchman ends up back at the Emirates Stadium for the day’s early-kick off.

Wenger had the luxury of changing nine players for the successful trip to BATE Borisov on Thursday night so all the big guns should be rested and refreshed as they try and make it six victories from seven since ‘that’ game at Liverpool.

You still get the distinct impression the likes of Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil are short of their very best but at least £50m summer arrival Alexandre Lacazette has made a fast start as he looks to keep up his own personal run of scoring at home in every Premier League fixture so far.

The clinical Frenchman is a 3/1 chance to open the scoring but unlocking a defence that has conceded fewer goals than the hosts so far might take a little more effort than would be expected for a 1/4 chance.

Brighton boss Chris Hughton was the last man to mastermind a victory for a newly promoted team (Newcastle, 1-0) at the Emirates in 2010 and the Gunners are unbeaten since against such teams with a record of 17 wins and two stalemates.

Hughton has a difficult task here with no confirmed strikers likely to be available after Tomer Hemed was handed a three-match ban for a red card last weekend against Toon so will be required to get creative with how he deploys Anthony Knockaert, Solly March, Pascal Gross and Davy Propper.

Brighton’s strength so far has been their excellent organisation at the back and it will have to be bang on point here but I think they can leave north London with credit and at the very least keep the score respectable.

Prediction: Arsenal 1-0 Brighton - Sky Bet odds: 13/2

Everton v Burnley (1415 BST, Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event)

The Toffees huffed and puffed to another underwhelming performance in the Europa League as they were held 2-2 at home by Apollon Limassol and the reaction was negative as expected with manager Ronald Koeman very much back in the spotlight.

A backward step was taken on Thursday after a little bit of a revival thanks to successive victories as Everton reverted to a team lacking confidence – even looking scared - and unable to see out a winning position at home against moderate opposition with 25 minutes left on the clock.

Koeman still has plenty of work to do as he beds in those expensive summer arrivals and the hesitancy among the outfield players is spreading to potential England No.1 Jordan Pickford, who has now not managed a clean sheet since August 17.

It seems an obvious thing to say but I won’t be rushing in to take an odds-on quote for them in the win market as they now face an awkward rival who have already returned from the red half of Merseyside a couple of weeks ago with a hard-fought point.

Sean Dyche is improving every week in my opinion as a manager in the top flight and is consistently showing a canny ability to get the maximum out of a group of players that have not cost a king’s ransom to assemble.

Last week’s dour 0-0 draw at home to Huddersfield was a good example with Dyche more than happy to secure a point and another clean sheet rather than whingeing over dropped points at Turf Moor.

I totally agree with midfielder Jack Cork’s assessment that they will head to Goodison full of confidence and another well-organised, hard-working effort makes them a good option in the Double Chance market.

Prediction: Everton 1-1 Burnley - Sky Bet odds: 11/2

Burnley boss Sean Dyche

Newcastle v Liverpool (1630 BST, Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event)

This duo have been involved in some spectacular encounters down the years and Tyneside should be bouncing in anticipation as both sets of fans pay tribute to current Toon boss Rafa Benitez.

The Spaniard is winning over hearts and minds in his current role but is revered even more on Mersyside so who could blame him coming over all warm and fuzzy ahead of kick-off.

Rafa has an important job to do though after Newcastle’s three-game winning streak came to a halt last weekend at Brighton and one of the game’s best modern tacticians will need his thinking cap on to stifle a visiting front four ready to explode into action.

Benitez has been able to pull off this strategy already on their return to the Premier League, admittedly playing against inferior rivals to the one they tackle before the international break.

Apart from pummelling West Ham 3-0, Benitez and his Newcastle side have been able to get the small details right with narrow wins over Swansea and Stoke with even very little between the teams in losses to Spurs, Huddersfield and the Seagulls.

The key will again be to keep things as close as possible as there will only be one winner if the game does descend into some crazy 4-3-style shootout that lit up the mid-1990s on more than one occasion.

Liverpool unveiled Sadio Mane, Philippe Coutinho, Mo Salah and Roberto Firmino all in the same team for the first time against Spartak Moscow in midweek and result was 12 attempts in total in the direction of the goal – but a 1-1 final outcome.

Manager Jurgen Klopp’s bottled water spilled everywhere as he stormed up and down the touchline in frustration and the question now is whether the most dynamic of quartets – plus Daniel Sturridge – are going to start converting some golden opportunities.

Punters on the whole tend to be positive and upbeat in expectation of excitement in a game of this nature so the early money for the visitors on both the handicap and also their total goals is understandable due to the talent on display.

It was a long, draining drag to the Russian capital however plus the additional savvy of Benitez could provide enough of a foil to keep this one closer than expected.

There will be additional emotion from the crowd following the death this week of former Newcastle chairman Freddy Shepherd so the hosts could be well up to delivering a display worthy at the very least of a one-goal start on the handicap.

Prediction: Newcastle 1-1 Liverpool - Sky Bet odds: 6/1

Recommended bets:

1pt treble Arsenal to score under 2.5 goals v Brighton, Burnley in Double Chance v Everton and Newcastle (+1) v Liverpool at 13.6/1

Posted at 1200 BST on 29/09/17.

Saturday

Huddersfield v Tottenham (1230 BST, Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event)

The sky really is the limit for Spurs this season as they look to make it seven victories on the spin away from home.

They fill the early televised slot once more on the Premier League schedule having beaten West Ham last weekend and then an under-strength side went to Cyprus in the Champions League and cruised past APOEL Nicosia.

That’s not to say there weren’t a few frights along the way - particularly in the last 10 minutes against the Hammers when they couldn’t get out of their own way - but a slight tightening up at the back will make them a real force in this season’s title race.

Harry Kane has emerged from the wilderness of August in rampant form with nine goals in his last five outings with anything he seems to dispatch goal-bound either rippling the back of the net or crashing into the woodwork and 2/1 is the general price for him opening the scoring here.

So are the Terriers a potential banana skin at the John Smith’s Stadium or would they be better off tackling this rival at Wembley?

David Wagner's side have made a thoroughly pleasing start and the German was delighted to pick up another point at Burnley as they registered a fourth clean sheet already in the top flight.

Working on the assumption Christian Eriksen has recovered from a bout of illness in midweek with Dele Alli also restored to the side, it is tough to envisage the hosts being able to hold out for the full 90 minutes despite some excellent organisation by Christopher Schindler and Mathias Zanka.

A lack of penetration at the other end is an issue too with Steve Mounie troubled by a heel injury and sidelined for the past few games and though Tom Ince is getting closer to breaking his duck, the bet has to be an away win to nil at an odds-against quote.

Prediction: Huddersfield 0-2 Tottenham - Sky Bet odds: 11/2

Bournemouth v Leicester (1500 BST)

The Vitaly Stadium hosts two teams in desperate need of a change of direction with both hovering in or around the relegation zone after a shaky start to the campaign.

The bookmakers find it hard to split the pair judged on what we have seen so far but Leicester have certainly had the tougher go of it on paper after already tackling Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool with nought to show for their endeavours.

There have been calls for Foxes boss Craig Shakespeare to rattle a few cages in a bid to switch things around as Riyad Mahrez has not been in sparkling form with Vicente Iborra potentially added into the mix to give the midfield some extra bite.

Eddie Howe has sailed close to the wind a few times during his spell in charge of the Cherries but is facing a real test of his managerial credentials with just one victory so far over Brighton.

His side played well for long periods against Everton and may have been celebrating three points if Jermain Defoe had netted a golden chance to put them 2-0 up but an Oumar Niasse-inspired five minutes turned the game on its head and saw them exit Merseyside with no points.

If Howe can tease out the spirit they showed in the come-from-behind 2-1 victory over the Seagulls then they have a fighting chance but the Foxes might just edge this one, although the price is not particularly appealing.

Prediction: Bournemouth 1-2 Leicester - Sky Bet odds: 17/2

Manchester United v Crystal Palace (1500)

Saturday afternoon’s biggest mis-match can be found at Old Trafford as the team in second place face a history-making Palace outfit that have achieved record lows over the first six weeks of the season.

For 40 minutes last week they were a match for Manchester City at the Etihad as the impressive Ruben Loftus-Cheek threatened the home goal on more than one occasion but once City nosed in front before the break, Palace collapsed and a 5-0 thumping will have done nothing for morale.

I am not quite sure where Roy Hodgson will begin as it never rains but pours with feature striker Christian Benteke now out for six weeks with ligament damage to leave Bakary Sako as his only recognised front man.

The issues are even greater at the other end, if that is possible to believe, with the real potential of another striping from a team that is scoring for fun on all fronts.

One goal was enough at Southampton last weekend but it has been much more of a torrent at home with only lowly Burton from the Championship able to break down a physical, well-organised defence in front of the excellent David De Gea.

Hodgson resorted to a midweek match against non-league Bromley behind closed doors in a bid to boost his ailing squad and they did manage to come up with the goods in a 2-1 victory so I suppose that has to be classed as small step in the right direction.

The Eagles are 22/1 to cause arguably the biggest 90-minute shock in Premier League history but this is a game I am not very keen on in terms of an investment as it is hard to justify any argument other than going with the form book.

Prediction: Manchester United 3-0 Crystal Palace - Sky Bet odds: 5/1

Stoke v Southampton (1500)

Stoke’s lack of recognised defenders was ruthlessly exposed by Chelsea at the bet365 Stadium last time but the final 4-0 scoreline was perhaps harsh on Mark Hughes after a performance that was not all that disastrous.

Kurt Zouma and Geoff Cameron are expected to be back to shore up the heart of the backline while Southampton’s toothless run in front of goal provides far less of a test than Alvaro Morata and company in full flight.

Peter Crouch, Joe Allen and Mame Diouf were all guilty of squandering chances that could have got Stoke a foothold in the game and taking one opportunity this time might be good enough considering the visitors’ current travails in front of the target.

The latter issue now stands at five games out of seven in total without troubling the scoreboard operator as Manchester United were the latest team happy to sit back and protect a 1-0 lead at St Mary’s without being unduly troubled.

That was not for lack of endeavour in the second period as some late pressure on the Red Devils’ goal could not be converted but a putting a positive spin on things, the law averages says the door will break down if they keep at it with continued verve.

Similar to Bournemouth and Leicester, it is very tough to separate them in the betting and predicting which way this one will swing is tough but I will opt for a narrow home success and actually some goals as both finally get their act together in the final third.

Prediction: Stoke 3-2 Southampton - Sky Bet odds: 40/1

Southampton can get their act together in front of goal

West Brom v Watford (1500)

Nothing really went right for the Baggies on Monday night at Arsenal and they looked unfortunate to leave north London on the wrong end of a 2-0 outcome.

Tony Pulis came out all guns blazing afterwards with claims of injustice and even cheating but perhaps some quiet reflection later in the week watching a re-run of the game will have made him very proud of his players, who were a constant menace on the break in a far more expansive performance than many expected.

West Brom need to carry that over into a solid display back at home as they try and end a winless streak that now stands at five in all competitions against a team that has punched well above its weight so far and has a perfect three-from-three record on the road.

The Hornets were certainly given a nice helping hand with some diabolical defending from the hosts in the 2-1 victory last week at Swansea and it would be rather cheeky for them to expect such generosity once more as they attempt to maintain their early charge in the top six.

I certainly feel they have goals in them and a really sporty wager is for the sprightly Peruvian winger Andre Carrillo to pop up and open his account in the Premier League.

A late arrival in the summer on loan as manager Marco Silva wrapped up his transfer business, he scooped a Man of the Match award in the win over Southampton on debut and had the ball in the back of the net at the Liberty Stadium before seeing it ruled out for offside.

He is approaching a peak with more and more minutes under his belt and his slick style could well pay dividends against a West Brom rearguard vulnerable to pace rather than the high ball.

Prediction: West Brom 2-2 Watford - Sky Bet odds: 16/1

West Ham v Swansea (1500)

Paul Clement cut an irritated figure after the late 2-1 home defeat to Watford and was not afraid to admit his players did not cut the mustard.

His team may not be anywhere near as good as the majority of the top flight but they can at least be relied on to keep instances of self-destruction down to a minimum, although clearly not the case last week.

That was in stark contrast to the disciplined performance to scratch out a point against Tottenham at Wembley and Clement will have to pick his players up once more and get a positive response for another trip to London, which is not totally out of the question.

West Ham got going far too late last weekend against Tottenham and if they can hit the ground running against a lesser rival here then Slaven Bilic has a chance of watching his side get back to winning ways.

Whether they deserve to go off here at an odds-on quote is a huge bone of contention with them still showing so much inconsistency at the back.

However, Andy Carroll working his way back to peak form and a razor-sharp Javier Hernandez will always give them hope of achieving something positive at the other end of the pitch.

The Hammers won both encounters last season but I reckon Clement will come up with an effective enough gameplan to at least head back to Wales with a stalemate.

Prediction: West Ham 1-1 Swansea - Sky Bet odds: 5/1

Chelsea v Manchester City (1730, BT Sport 1)

There is little doubt where the game of the day takes place with a chance at Stamford Bridge for one of the title heavyweights to make a serious statement before the international break.

City’s rampant attacking options hold sway with the bookmakers as they are favourites heading into the game but I would suggest if any team is capable of keeping a lid on Gabriel Jesus, Kevin De Bruyne and the rest then it is this Chelsea side under Antonio Conte.

They have already done a number on a more strongly fancied Tottenham one Sunday afternoon at Wembley last month and although City’s swarming hordes currently are a step up again, the cagey Conte is probably well down the path of concocting a plan to thwart them.

This comes immediately on the back of an outstanding effort to claim all three points in the Champions League at Atletico Madrid with Diego Costa’s replacement Alvaro Morato already gaining cult status with a glut of goals to get his Chelsea career under way.

Working on the assumption that Manchester United have seen off Crystal Palace an hour earlier to pull clear at the summit, there will be some pressure on the pair and the outlook from both camps will certainly be not to lose.

With that in mind, I don’t see these sides constantly trading blows up and down the pitch so the run of recent encounters with a hatful of goals is fancied to come to a halt.

Both expended energy in midweek in Europe with City benefiting from a day longer to prepare and like so many of these marquee fixtures, it could turn out to be on the underwhelming side.

One breakthrough might be good enough and it really is a flip of the coin - I will tentatively take the hosts but I have a much stronger opinion that this will be a low-scoring encounter with under 2.5 total goals considered the bet.

Prediction: Chelsea 1-0 Manchester City - Sky Bet odds: 9/1

Recommended bets:

2pts Tottenham to beat Huddersfield to nil at 13/10

2pts over 2.5 total goals in Stoke v Southampton at 5/4

1pt Andre Carrillo to score anytime v West Brom at 13/2

2pts under 2.5 total goals in Chelsea v Manchester City at 6/5

Click here for our transparent tipping record.

Posted at 0715 BST on 29/09/17.

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