- Jimmy’s Punt: Staked 140pts | Returned 111.66pts | P/L -28.34pts | ROI -20%
Football betting tips: Premier League and EFL
1pt Man Utd double chance and Andre Onana to be carded vs Man City (16:30) at 10/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Man Utd to win and Andre Onana to be carded at 25/1 (bet365)
I’ve tipped some stinkers this season.
But to have two centre-backs come off injured last weekend and a storm on the West coast postpone a game taking place in *checks notes* West Sussex feels particularly cruel.
Aside from that, I am pretty optimistic.
The other angles touted are well worth persisting with and that is going to be the theme of this edition. I mean, what better way to shake off this rotten run than lean on some old friends of the column?
It’s the punting equivalent of wheeling out Neil Warnock in March. We’re in the red so come on Neil son, dust yourself off and let's call on some of the old faithfuls to get us out of the mire.
Manchester City vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 8/15 | Draw 7/2 | Away 4/1
It seems almost too perfect the next instalment of Super Sunday involves another master of the dark arts.
For the same reasons outlined at the Amex, ANDRE ONANA’s price TO BE CARDED along with both MANCHESTER UNITED TO WIN and MANCHESTER UNITED DOUBLE CHANCE are both worth a tickle.
- CLICK HERE to back Andre Onana card, Manchester United to win with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Onana card, Man Utd double chance with Sky Bet
This is another stopper with card pedigree. Onana picked up five in the Premier League last season alone and his only card of the current term came as the Red Devils clung to the lead against Bodo/Glimt in the Europa League.
I can’t think of a single reason not to side with the outsiders in a Manchester Derby where both teams are out-of-sorts.
Generational wealth
For the more optimistic punters (me) there is a nice synergy in combining some of the selections. Two League One centre back goalscorers makes a nice double as does combining the away goalkeepers to be carded after their sides pick up unlikely results in back-to-back Premier League fixtures.
Yep, it makes sense. Obviously, small stakes though.
- Pines and Horsfall to score anytime at 246/1 with Sky Bet
- Palace and Man Utd double chance, Dean Henderson and Andre Onana cards at 113/1 (bet365)
- Palace and Man Utd wins, Dean Henderson and Andre Onana cards at 436/1 (bet365)
Already advised
1pt Norman Bassette to be carded in Coventry vs Hull (12:30) at 13/2 (bet365)
0.5pt Bassette and Alfie Jones to be carded at 30/1 (BetVictor)
0.5pt Bassette and Jones to be sent off at 1000/1 (bet365)
1pt Donovan Pines to score anytime in Exeter vs Barnsley (15:00) at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Fraser Horsfall to score anytime in Stevenage vs Stockport (15:00) at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Crawley to beat Peterborough and both teams to score at 6/1 (bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt C Palace double chance and Dean Henderson to be carded vs Brighton (14:00) at 9/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt C Palace to win and Dean Henderson to be carded at 18/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)
Coventry vs Hull
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 3/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 7/2
NORMAN BASSETTE TO BE CARDED is definitely one for the notebook.
Frustratingly, the youngster is not a guaranteed starter and, after playing the full match in midweek, he might get rested against Hull so keep an eye on team news.
That said, the 13/2 with bet365 is simply too big to turn down and this particular firm will void the bet if Bassette doesn’t make the XI.
He has notched up four cards in 500 Championship minutes, the majority coming for arguing, and his antics could rub referee Robert Madley the wrong way.
Cards wise, Madley blows hot and cold. He dished out six bookings in his last game at Hillsborough but zero in the game before. I hope the presence of Sky Sports+ will send both him and Bassette into a frenzy.
If Bassette does start, there is every chance he drags others into the book with him. Team news dependent, coupling him with ALFIE JONES TO BE CARDED is worth a poke as is an ambitious punt on both Bassette and Jones TO BE SENT OFF.
Exeter vs Barnsley
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 2/1 | Draw 23/10 | Away 11/10
Exeter have been fortunate to only concede 19 goals this season having shipped an expected goals against (xGA) of 26.07 and unsurprisingly, they are also riding their luck defending set pieces.
The Grecians have conceded seven times from an xGA of 8.60 and yet this is still where the majority of their goals are leaked (37%).
What’s more, six defenders have scored against them this term and four of those goals have come from set pieces. Wycombe’s Joe Low and Wrexham’s Max Clemworth have been the most recent players to profit.
Barnsley are next at St James’ Park and despite their defensive injury issues, I still think they could prosper from dead balls.
The Reds' defensive stalwarts Marc Roberts and Josh Earl are ruled out for the foreseeable future which should mean DONOVAN PINES starts at the heart of the back line.
You might remember him from the column's heady days, back when we were in profit. I once described him as a generational set piece talent and, although that hasn’t exactly withstood the test of time, he’s still a big threat.
Pines has netted four times in 19 appearances for the Reds, three of those coming in just 10 League One starts, and the 12/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME on Saturday looks good to me.
Peterborough vs Crawley
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 8/13 | Draw 3/1 | Away 16/5
A bit of wind robbed us of a winner (I assume) and CRAWLEY of three points last weekend against Stevenage. It’s okay, we can just back them TO WIN again at Peterborough but this time with BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE.
Crawley are good now - they turned the corner seven league games ago. Following the defeat at the Madejski to Reading, Rob Elliot’s side have only lost one of seven, beating Lincoln, Rotherham, Charlton and drawing with Huddersfield.
Now get your head around this. Victory at London Road would move Crawley above Peterborough - it doesn’t sound right but it’s true.
As for the both teams to score angle, Darren Ferguson’s side are crazy. They've scored 33 and conceded 32 in 18 outings.
A small bit of advice, if you back this in bet365’s bet builder you get the early payout if Crawley go two goals up. If they don’t go on to win the game, the bet will still pay out if both find the net.
Stevenage vs Stockport
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 9/5 | Draw 2/1 | Away 11/8
FRASER HORSFALL, how are you buddy?
Yeah, you guessed it, he is here again because his price TO SCORE ANYTIME is simply too big. Again.
By now you are probably tired of the regurgitated rhetoric about why this is a good bet so I’ll spare you of it.
I was actually reluctant to include him this weekend because Stevenage are good at defending set pieces. Their tally of 4.23 xGA from them is one of the smallest totals in the division and yet here Horsfall is.
Aside from the price, I simply would not be able to bear him scoring on the one week he was excluded.
Besides, any fears about him missing out due to the knock he picked up last weekend against Exeter were vanquished after he played 90 minutes against Bradford in midweek.
So, barring any calamities in training, Horsfall will play on Saturday and hopefully he proves his price to score is too big.
Brighton vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 17/20 | Draw 11/4 | Away 14/5
Four Premier League games on Sunday, three of them on telly, one rivalry, one derby and another one on the South Coast which promises to be bedlam.
With wall-to-wall football, I should really be hunkered down at Sunday club with a few bets to cheer on.
The first of which comes from Brighton’s clash with Crystal Palace, a rivalry far beyond my comprehension but a game I know both sides will be desperate to win.
And it is this desperation which interests me.
Should the circumstances suit, I am sure DEAN HENDERSON will pull out all the stops to ensure his side take points back to Selhurst Park by time wasting.
Crystal Palace’s keeper is a whizz with the old housery notching up 10 cards in 100 top-flight appearances, one of which came against Brighton last season, and the majority of them (7) have been for running down the clock.
Combining Henderson TO BE CARDED with both a CRYSTAL PALACE WIN and CRYSTAL PALACE DOUBLE CHANCE predictably interests me here.
Odds correct at 1100 GMT (13/12/24)
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