- Jimmy’s Punt: Staked 138pts | Returned 130.46pts | P/L -7.54pts | ROI -5%
Football betting tips: Liverpool vs Leicester
2pts Diogo Jota to score anytime in Liverpool vs Leicester at 10/11 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Diogo Jota to score 2+ goals at 9/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Diogo Jota to score 3+ goals at 20/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
It is interesting to see the difference in approaches between myself and Tom Carnduff in our columns for Boxing Day.
Ever the professional he has exercised some restraint whereas I have gone hell for leather. It is Boxing Day after all, the best punting day of the year.
I’ve split the column and bets by order of time and market. It is keeper cards first, player cards and then goal scorers.
At the bottom there is also some generational wealth on offer for some ambitious punts to roar on. You can't say fairer than that.
Liverpool vs Leicester
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Thursday
- TV: Amazon Prime Video
- Home 1/14 | Draw 10/1 | Away 20/1
Liverpool could run up a cricket score against Leicester.
The Reds scored six against Tottenham on Sunday and have only failed to score in one of their 25 games this season.
The Foxes meanwhile have only kept one domestic clean sheet and have shipped three or more goals in 35% of their 17 games including each of their last three away games.
Although he is not guaranteed to start, I am happy to take a punt on DIOGO JOTA because he is the clear value at Anfield.
The frontman’s Merseyside spell has been blighted by injury but he boasts a 0.64 goals per 90 average for the Reds, netting three times in the league this term.
In five seasons at Liverpool, he has also scored 10 braces and one hat-trick and considering the hosts are 10/11 to score 4+ goals with Sky Bet, Jota’s prices TO SCORE ANYTIME, 2+ GOALS and 3+ GOALS all appeal.
Generational wealth
I’ll be taking the keeper card bet builders as trixies, as well as doing a card double, double and combining the goalscorers, as listed below.
As ever, keep your wits about. I’ll only be having loose change on the following.
- Bassette, Szucs, Bellingham and Travis cards at 246/1 (bet365)
- Matty Stevens and Diogo Jota 2+ goals at 42/1 (bet365)
- Matty Stevens and Diogo Jota 3+ goals at 764/1 (bet365)
- Keeper card, double chance trixie at 2,144/1 (bet365)
- Keeper card, win trixie at 22,983/1 (bet365)
Boxing Day 12:30
1pt Jordan Pickford card and Everton double chance vs Man City at 19/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Pickford card and Everton win at 45/1 (Sky Bet)
Boxing Day 15:00
1pt Bernd Leno card and Fulham double chance vs Chelsea at 13/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Leno card and Fulham win at 29/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Ivor Pandur card and Hull double chance vs Preston at 12/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Ivor Pandur card and Hull win at 25/1 (bet365)
1pt Norman Bassette to be carded in Coventry vs Plymouth at 13/2 (BetVictor)
0.5pt Bassette and Kornel Szucs to be carded at 20/1 (BetVictor)
0.5pt Bassette and Szucs to be sent off at 1000/1 (bet365)
1pt Jobe Bellingham to be carded in Blackburn vs Sunderland at 4/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Bellingham and Lewis Travis to be carded at 12/1 (bet365)
2pts Matty Stevens to score anytime in AFC Wimbledon vs Swindon at 13/8 (bet365)
0.5pt Matty Stevens to score 2+ goals at 9/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Matty Stevens to score 3+ goals at 50/1 (bet365)
Boxing Day Keeper Card Trixie
1pt Pickford, Leno, Pandur carded and Everton, Fulham, Hull double chance trixie at 2,144/1 (bet365)
Manchester City vs Everton
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Thursday
- TV: Amazon Prime Video
- Home 1/3 | Draw 17/4 | Away 7/1
After a weekend where both Emi Martinez and JORDAN PICKFORD were booked, it doesn’t feel right that I am writing this from a grey South Yorkshire and not sunny, sunny Mexico.
Nevertheless, EVERTON’s stopper looks a good price TO BE CARDED at the Etihad in classic underdog, keeper card combination.
Pickford is the ultimate shyster and master of the housery. He has kept five clean sheets in his last six games, the last two coming against Arsenal and Chelsea and he was carded in both games.
This Toffees side are making a habit of picking up points against the big boys and combining them TO WIN and WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE with a Pickford card appeals.
- CLICK HERE to back Pickford card and Everton win with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Pickford card and Everton double chance with Sky Bet
Chelsea vs Fulham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Thursday
- TV: Amazon Prime Video
- Home 4/9 | Draw 18/5 | Away 5/1
Ask me if I would back FULHAM TO WIN or WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE at Stamford Bridge and the answer would be no but combining that with keeper BERND LENO TO BE CARDED and you have a deal.
- CLICK HERE to back Leno card and Fulham win with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Leno card and Fulham double chance with Sky Bet
Fulham are a good team, Marco Silva is a great manager and the Cottagers always go toe-to-toe with the traditional ‘big six’ (W0 D3 L2). They have also beaten Newcastle, Brighton, Brentford and Forest this season.
Leno was booked in those wins over Forest and Newcastle, taking his Fulham cards tally to seven across the last three seasons.
Preston vs Hull
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Thursday
- Home 5/4 | Draw 9/4 | Away 21/10
I was listening to Coventry’s recent 2-1 win over HULL with a keen interest because of a card bet I touted (more on that in a second) and was shocked to hear the Tigers keeper was carded for time wasting in the 32nd minute.
Naturally, I made a note of it so we could pounce the next time Hull play away which is Boxing Day.
The keeper in question is IVOR PANDUR and he has picked up two cards this season. At 15/2, he is a whopping price TO BE CARDED on Thursday but combining it with both Hull TO WIN and WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE provides some interest.
Ruben Selles’ side are better than the table would have you believe, they beat Swansea in their last outing and they look a cracking price to pick up a result at Deepdale.
Blackburn vs Sunderland
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Thursday
- Home 9/5 | Draw 9/4 | Away 29/20
A closely contested clash is expected at Ewood Park where fifth-placed Blackburn host fourth-placed Sunderland.
Each have lost only one of their last six games and spent Christmas six points apart, albeit Rovers have played a match fewer.
In the Championship, both clubs rank in the top nine for ill-discipline which is why player cards are the best way in here.
JOBE BELLINGHAM has five bookings and one red card in 19 league appearances this term, already equalling last season's card tally.
Interestingly, all but one of his cards have come on the road so at 4/1 his price TO BE CARDED appeals.
He’ll be pitting his whits against LEWIS TRAVIS in the middle of the park in what promises to be a full blooded contest.
Travis is the joint-second most carded player in the division (7), picking up a booking in three of his last four league appearances, so I’ll be combining the pair to BE CARDED as well.
Coventry vs Plymouth
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Thursday
- Home 3/10 | Draw 17/4 | Away 8/1
We are long-time admirers of NORMAN BASSETTE and his knack of picking up cards.
We cashed in when he picked up his fifth of the season against Hull and once again he is a standout price TO BE CARDED when Coventry take on Plymouth.
His direct opponent Charlie Hughes followed Bassette into the book against Hull for a foul on the striker to concede a penalty, so naturally coupling Bassette with Plymouth’s KORNEL SZUCS TO BE CARDED also appeals.
The central defender has picked up four cards this season and I doubt he’ll take too kindly to Bassette’s brash antics.
Given the pair's lack of experience, I also think backing both of them TO BE SENT OFF is worth a stab at 1000/1.
Neither have ever been given their marching orders, which goes a little way to explaining the odds but referee Adam Herczeg did send someone off in his last appearance which is something to cling to I guess.
AFC Wimbledon vs Swindon
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Thursday
- Home 3/5 | Draw 11/4 | Away 18/5
Sticking with the goalscorers, MATTY STEVENS is a whopping price TO SCORE ANYTIME when AFC Wimbledon take on Swindon in League Two.
The frontman is the joint-top scorer in the fourth tier (11) scoring four in his last five league appearances and netting 14 times in all competitions.
The Dons are odds-on to beat Swindon in a battle between the second-best home team and the joint-worst travellers.
The visitors have only won away league games this season and have not kept a clean sheet on their travels since August, so I would be missing a trick not touting Stevens to score 2+ GOALS and 3+ GOALS as well.
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (23/12/24)
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