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Jake Osgathorpe's predictions

Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 24/25 Matchday 13

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Sun December 01, 2024 · 1w ago
  • Jake's Predictions: Staked 161.75pts | Returned 167.37pts | P/L +5.62pts | ROI 3.5%

Football betting tips: Premier League

1.5pts Both keepers to make 3+ saves in Liverpool vs Manchester City at 7/5 (Betfair)

https://m.skybet.com/lp/acq-bet-10-get-40-acca-affiliate?sba_promo=ACQ10G40FBACCA&aff=688&dcmp=SL_ED_FOOTBALL

A poor weekend all around. Only a couple of winners among a raft of losers so apologies. We'll be going back to the drawing board this weekend looking to bounce back.

This weekend's Premier League action kicks off on Friday, and finishes with a huge clash at Anfield between league leaders Liverpool and stuttering champions Manchester City.

We've plenty of bets in the staking plan, and a mix of prices and bet types to get into and cheer on.

Liverpool vs Manchester City

Well, at least Manchester City stopped the rot in midweek. They had lost five in a row prior to a 3-3 draw with Feyenoord, though it probably feels like six after blowing a 3-0 lead at home.

This is not the same City side we have come accustomed to seeing, that is for sure. They are wounded, both physically with injuries and mentally after such a long winless run by their standards, meaning the ever-shortening price of a home win makes plenty of appeal.

Liverpool have won 17 of Arne Slot's 19 games in charge this season, losing only once, and their performance levels have been sensational. They have undoubtedly been the best team in the top flight, and have recent dispatched of Chelsea, Brighton, Aston Villa and Real Madrid at Anfield.

Arne Slot

City are probably at that level or worst in their current state. The underlying numbers for Pep's side highlights that chance creation hasn't been a problem, averaging 2.00 xGF per game during their six match winless run, but it paints a miserable picture defensively.

The reigning champions have allowed a whopping 2.13 xGA per game across that sextet of games. So, should Pep refuse to make drastic changes to style here, this game could be a real ding dong affair in which both sides create an abundance of chances.

So the angle that really appealed was actually in the GOALKEEPER SAVES market, where we can back BOTH KEEPERS 3+ SAVES at 7/5.

City will create chances here, their attack is too good, and it's not like Caoimhin Kelleher has been quiet in net for Liverpool, quite the opposite in fact. The Irishman has averaged 3.3 saves per game across all competitions since coming in for the injured Alisson, making 3+ saves in seven of 10 appearances including two penalty saves in his last two matches.

Caoimhin Kelleher

As for Ederson, he's been a very busy boy of late, picking the ball out his net 15 times in his last five matches and making 2.6 saves per game in that run.

Given the way Liverpool are attacking at the moment, plus the fact this is at Anfield, I suspect he could face a barrage of shots. This season in all competitions Liverpool have averaged 15.8 shots per game at Anfield, hitting the target 7.2 times per game and forcing 4.8 saves per game from the opposing goalkeeper.

Score prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Already advised

1pt Brighton to win and BTTS vs Southampton at 13/8 (General)

1.5pts Ethan Pinnock 1+ total shot in Brentford vs Leicester at 21/20 (Unibet)

1.5pts Nathan Collins 1+ total shot in Brentford vs Leicester at 23/20 (Unibet)

0.5pts Ethan Pinnock to score anytime in Brentford vs Leicester at 12/1 (bet365)

0.5pts Nathan Collins to score anytime in Brentford vs Leicester at 10/1 (bet365)

1pt Will Hughes to be carded in C Palace vs Newcastle at 3/1 (bet365, Unibet)

2pts Wolves to commit 12+ fouls vs Bournemouth at 4/5 (Sky Bet)

2pts Bukayo Saka to score or assist in West Ham vs Arsenal at 5/6 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

1.5pts Arsenal -1 handicap at 13/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

1.5pts Chelsea to win the second half vs Aston Villa at 21/20 (Betway)

1.5pts Under 2.5 goals in Man Utd vs Everton at 11/10 (bet365)

1pt Destiny Udogie to be carded in Tottenham vs Fulham at 9/2 (Sky Bet)

Brighton vs Southampton

How much longer will Southampton stick with Russell Martin? We've just seen Leicester - four places and six points better off than the Saints - sack Steve Cooper, and the Saints issues show no sign of getting resolved.

They still can't defend (20th on xGA) and offer little threat in attack for all their possession, ranking fifth for average possession (55.3%) yet 17th for xGF (13.4 - 1.12 per game). Something has to change.

Southampton boss Russell Martin

Next up, it's a Brighton side who have beaten Tottenham and Manchester City in two of their last three home games, and I strongly fancy the hosts here.

That wouldn't be a sentiment I would have uttered were the Seagulls playing a side flexible in approach, one happy to sit in, cede possession and counter attack given it appears Brighton still struggle with such opponents.

Two of their three draws at the Amex have come when they have seen 70%+ possession (N Forest, Ipswich). The other draw should have been a win, with the Seagulls showing some naivety when overcommitting with a four on one against Wolves, only to waste the chance and concede after being out-numbered the other way.

Joao Pedro celebrates his late winner

The Seagulls should be four wins from four when they have seen much less of the ball, as they should here.

I'll have a small bet on BRIGHTON WIN AND BTTS at 7/4.

The hosts are creating plenty, but do give up chances, shown by their xG averages (1.67 xGF and 1.34 xGA per home game) so Southampton should get a couple of good opportunities here to once again get on the scoresheet.

Martin's side have scored in seven of their last 10 league games, while Brighton have conceded in eight of their last 10. At home, the Seagulls have seen both teams score in five of six league games, with their three home wins all seeing both teams score.

Score prediction: Brighton 3-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Brentford vs Leicester

Leicester are a bit of a mess at the moment. They waited until after the international break, after a defeat against top four chasing Chelsea, to sack Steve Cooper. It looks as though they are set to replace him with Ruud van Nistelrooy.

Either way, whoever is managing the Foxes I'll be backing opposition centre-backs to have attacking success.

ETHAN PINNOCK and NATHAN COLLINS are both generously priced for 1+ TOTAL SHOT here, and I'll be backing both of them.

Leicester continue to concede plenty of shots from set-pieces. In fact, they have faced the most attempts from dead ball situations in the league this term (66), averaging 5.5 per game.

set piece shots conceded

Across their last seven league matches the Foxes have faced 16 shots from opposing centre-backs alone from set-pieces, so with Pinnock and Collins both huge threats from such scenarios, it makes sense to back both to register a shot.

Pinnock has had nine shots in 12 games this season, with his centre-back partner Collins having 10 shots in his 12 outings.

I am even more confident about these plays given how poorly Leicester have fared against good set-piece teams this season. They have faced three of the current top five in terms of xGF from set-pieces and have; conceded from a corner against Aston Villa (1st), conceded three shots to centre-backs against Nottingham Forest (3rd) and 13 set-piece shots against Arsenal (4th) with six coming from defenders.

Brentford, fifth on that list, could have similar levels of success. In fact, I'll also have a couple of smaller bets on PINNOCK and COLLINS TO SCORE ANYTIME at 12/1 and 10/1 respectively.

I wouldn't usually go this heavy, but I love the mis-match here, and the two centre-backs proposed have both already scored this season (Pinnock twice) - and they have both scored in the same game, a home match against a Wolves side who struggle as badly from set-pieces as Leicester do.

Lightening couldn't strike twice, could it?

Score prediction: Brentford 2-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle

Somehow, WILL HUGHES wasn't carded last weekend. He committed three fouls, one which was a scrape down the Achilles of an opponent that resulted in a penalty.

How's your luck eh. Anyway, I haven't learned my lesson, as we are going back in at 3/1 this weekend for him TO BE CARDED.

Hughes has been carded five times already this season and committed 2.80 fouls per 90, and this weekend comes up against a Newcastle midfield who have been excellent at drawing cards.

Will Hughes

At least one opposition midfielder has been booked in 10 of Newcastle's 12 Premier League games, with 13 of 23 opposing midfielders picking up yellows.

We've a good referee appointment here in Darren England, who has averaged 5.0 cards per game this season, so hopefully Hughes can deliver for us this weekend.

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Nottingham Forest vs Ipswich

Ipswich look to have found something of late, unbeaten in three and slowly finding their feet in the Premier League.

I wouldn't put anyone off a pro Ipswich bet as I do fancy them to get at least a point.

We were let down by backing Forest's centre-backs to be fouled last weekend, and I'm not going to put the same bets in the staking plan, but I do think they are worthwhile revisiting this weekend.

That's because of Liam Delap, who is all action. He commits a lot of fouls, with 22 opposing centre backs being fouled when he has started this term.

In total a centre-back has been fouled in eight of his 11 starts. Murillo is 9/4 with Sky Bet to be fouled and Nikola Milenkovic is 11/8 for those interested.

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Wolves vs Bournemouth

This game has fouls written all over it. We have the league leaders in the foul department, Bournemouth, travelling to the side second in those standings, Wolves.

The pair are both averaging over 13 fouls per game, with both playing in a very front-foot, transitional and aggressive manner.

Sky Bet have priced WOLVES TO COMMIT 12+ FOULS at a very generous 4/5, with the same bet around the 2/5 mark elsewhere.

The Old Gold have hit 12+ in eight of their 12 matches so far this season, and in four of six at home, averaging 12.5 per game in front of their own fans.

wolves fouls

In a game that will be open and end-to-end, with plenty of space for both sides to exploit, I wouldn't be surprised to see plenty of fouls.

Last season the two meetings delivered a 12-12 and a 10-17 in the foul count, and I suspect we see similar figures here. For those wanting to climb the Wolves ladder, Sky Bet are offering 5/4 for 13+ fouls, 9/2 for 16+ and 11/1 for 18+.

Wolves have covered 13+ in eight of 12, 16+ in four of 12 and 18+ once already this term.

Score prediction: Wolves 2-2 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

West Ham vs Arsenal

Arsenal are back. All it took was for Martin Odegaard to return, and the Gunners have taken off in attack. Defensively they remain solid, meaning West Ham should be very afraid this weekend.

Despite winning on Monday, the Hammers flattered to deceive, losing the xG battle once again, as their backline remains vulnerable.

Julen Lopetegui's side have conceded the sixth most xGA in the league this season, allowing 1.70 per game, so a full-tilt Arsenal side should be able to have their way on Saturday.

ARSENAL -1 HANDICAP looks a cracking way in at 13/10, with this bet requiring the Gunners to win by two clear goals.

Fresh from 3-0 and 5-1 wins, Arsenal are cooking. Combine that with the fact that West Ham are a below average side who get blown out by good teams (3-1 vs City, 3-0 vs Chelsea, 4-1 vs Spurs) and this bet looks even more appetising.

I also can't resist the 5/6 being dangled for BUKAYO SAKA TO SCORE OR ASSIST.

The Englishman has been in scintillating form this season, averaging 0.63 expected goal involvements (xGI) per 90.

goals and assists

He's scored four and assisted eight goals in his 11 league outings, registering a goal involvement in eight of those 11.

Since the start of last season, he's scored or assisted in 31 of 46 league starts, with this bet landing 67% of the time, a percentage that would give us implied odds of 1/2.

Score prediction: West Ham 0-3 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Chelsea vs Aston Villa

Chelsea continue to look like a serious side more than capable of finishing in the top four. Credit to Enzo Maresca for getting the players and the club all pointing in the same direction.

The squad at his disposal is so vast that he can make 11 changes for midweek Europa Conference League matches, meaning his favoured XI are well-rested for weekend Premier League action. That is a huge advantage, especially this weekend against Aston Villa.

Unai Emery's men have struggled in matches following midweek games, be that Carabao Cup or Champions League, winning just one of six following such midweek action, with that win coming at home to a Wolves side who were, at the time, bottom of the league.

Emery

The last two games to follow a midweek match saw Villa lose to Tottenham and Liverpool, with Emery's side looking leggy in the second half and limited in impact off the bench.

While CHELSEA do hold some appeal to just win the game, I like the bigger price about them WINNING THE SECOND HALF.

As mentioned, the Blues have no issue with fatigue having rested everyone in midweek, and have the bonus of an incredible bench to call upon in the second period.

Villa are on a seven match winless run, with this bet winning in four of those seven matches and all three away games. In those trips, Villa have averaged just 0.32 xGF in the second half of matches, while conceding an average of 1.47 xGA per game, so the second half result looks the way in with Chelsea.

Score prediction: Chelsea 2-0 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)

Manchester United vs Everton

Ruben Amorim got his first win as Manchester United boss in midweek, edging out Bodo/Glimt 3-2 at Old Trafford.

I don't see this game being quite as high-scoring though, with a stingy Everton in town. The Toffees have gone UNDER 2.5 GOALS in all of their last six league games, with those matches seeing three goalless draws and a combined five goals.

Sean Dyche's side are, and have been for some time now, a fine margin team, with few chances at either end when they take to the field.

The underlying data suggests their last six games should have seen more than five goals, but over that time the Toffees have averaged 1.18 xGF and 1.21 xGA per game for a very low total of 2.38 combined xG per game.

xg per 90 prem last six

One thing is for sure, Everton won't turn up in Manchester and play into United's hands. They won't play it out from the back, the ball will get pumped long. They won't be drawn into stretching the pitch to make it a wide open encounter, they'll sit in a deep block and frustrate United.

As for the hosts, their attacking display at Ipswich was poor, racking up a total of 0.80 xG, with just 0.55 xG coming in the 88+ minutes after Marcus Rashford opened the scoring. They looked better in midweek, but that game came against a much weaker opponent.

I expect we'll see quite a lot of the players who played in midweek, which could make fatigue a factor, especially with having to deal with Amorim's high-energy, high-press.

Defensively United have been fairly solid this season when facing non-elite side, providing a solid foundation for Amorim to build from, and this Everton team look pretty toothless at the moment, and may not offer much threat.

All in all, I can't see this game exploding with goals, and I wouldn't at all be surprised to see Everton get a point.

Score prediction: Manchester United 1-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Tottenham vs Fulham

I give Fulham a decent chance of getting something here. That may sound surprising given they were pumped 4-1 at home by Wolves last weekend while Spurs hammered Manchester City 4-0 at the Etihad, but this looks a real banana skin.

Fulham will turn up and have a go at Spurs, and they are vulnerable to sides who are direct and excellent at counter attacking. We should see a wide open game, with plenty of space to be exploited and that could lead to a few cards for over-committing full-backs.

The player I have in mind is DESTINY UDOGIE, the marauding left-back who could well find himself running back towards his own goal a fair bit on Sunday in pursuit of Fulham's chief foul drawers down the right side.

udogie carded

Yes, I am talking about Adama Traore, but also Reiss Nelson, and it's a fair assumption that Udogie will have to deal with both players over the full 90 minutes, so his price TO BE CARDED appeals at 9/2.

The Italian has already been booked twice this term and seven times in 28 games last season, and is averaging 1.45 fouls per 90, while Traore has won 1.94 fouls per 90 and Nelson 2.28.

Darren Bond is the referee in charge of proceedings and he has averaged 5.4 cards per game, so looks a solid appointment for card backers.

Score prediction: Manchester United 1-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Super 6 predictions for round 20

  • Crystal Palace 1-2 Newcastle
  • Brentford 2-1 Leicester
  • Nottingham Forest 1-1 Ipswich
  • West Ham 0-3 Arsenal
  • Chelsea 2-0 Aston Villa
  • Liverpool 2-1 Manchester City

Odds correct at 1530 (28/11/24)

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