A meeting with Manchester United on the final matchday of the revamped Europa League gives FCSB a chance of a top eight finish. A slim enough chance, but one which is far bigger than we expected before a ball was kicked.

Romania's top team were as big as 66/1 for automatic progression at the end of September and yet a European campaign which has delivered four wins and two draws leaves them just inside that top end of the table.

That price is now 7/2 but you may as well take the 9/2 best price on a home win if fancying that previously unlikely outcome to happen. You get the additional 'safety net' factors with the qualification price but they'll need victory given the handful of teams still in with a chance who sit just behind them.

Despite a turbulent season United are in a strong position to progress. They're even likely to do so without a win - a defeat would need four others directly below them to win to sentence them to the play-offs.

You could therefore argue that it's a game which FCSB prioritise far more, despite the visitors not totally certain of automatic progression.

What are the best bets?

But, as ever, we need to be careful not to get drawn into backing a team simply because they 'need' to win. Needing, wanting and doing are three completely different things and, fundamentally, this Manchester United outfit remain a far superior side.

Opponents in this competition are seeing chances though. Viktoria Plzen took 15 shots in United's only European away game under Ruben Amorim while Rangers saw 11 at Old Trafford.

FCSB aren't a shot-heavy side in the Europa League but they've hit double figures in all three home outings so far. I'd expect them to hit the same marker against this United defence.

There's a couple of players you can focus on but ADRIAN SUT's shot line looks overpriced mostly across the board. A defensive midfielder who does try and contribute in attack.

The 7/2 on SUT 2+ TOTAL SHOTS is a bet worth backing, as is the 12/1 on 3+. The 8s elsewhere on the latter more than an acceptable price too.

He's returned two shots in four of his five Europa League starts, while three or more have come in the home draw with Olympiacos and the away win at PAOK.

It's not exactly exclusive to European action either. Six of his last eight games in all competitions have seen at least two efforts with the games which fell short delivering one.

Sut's importance to this FCSB side is outlined in the fact that he's not only regularly playing the full 90 minutes but also in him wearing the captain's armband in the absence of the injured Darius Olaru.

Olaru sitting on the sideline should also mean a central role for Florin Tanase by the way. Betway go 14/5 on 2+ shots for him with bet365 opting for 11/4 which is well worth considering if you can get on. It won't feature in the staking plan though because it's a significant step up from the odds-on or near even money offerings with the majority of others.

Back onto our selection, and while Sut does deliver a threat from open play, he's also been handy at set-piece situations. FCSB may not be high corner takers in Europe but they do create good quality chances from them.

They've averaged 0.24 expected goals (xG) per game from corners and free-kicks while Manchester United still struggle to defend them. They've averaged 0.37 expected goals against (xGA) per game at set-pieces in Premier League and European games under Amorim.

The nine shots after set-pieces from FCSB is the fifth-highest in the Europa League too.

I'd expect this game to be more competitive than the odds suggest, with Sut seeing a chance or two to strike.

Team news

Altay Bayindir could start for Manchester United

The previously mentioned Olaru is one of three players unavailable for the hosts.

Fellow midfielder Mihai Lixandru and winger Octavian Popescu are also out through injury. A number of players should return following rotation for the previous weekend win over Arad.

United will assess Manuel Ugarte after he picked up a late knock in the win over Fulham, although likely rotation may have seen him not involved here anyway.

Jonny Evans, Mason Mount and Luke Shaw are three confirmed to be out. Toby Collyer may be given another start after featuring from the off in last week's win over Rangers.

Altay Bayindir could replace Andre Onana in goal.

Predicted line-ups

FCSB XI: Tarnovanu; Cretu, Ngezana, Dawa, Radunovic; Edjouma, Sut; Stefanescu; Tanase, Miculescu; Birligea.

Manchester United XI: Bayindir; Yoro, Maguire, Martinez; Mazraoui, Collyer, Fernandes, Dalot; Diallo, Garnacho; Hojlund.

Odds correct at 1200 GMT (29/01/25)

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