Europa League qualifying betting preview: Free tips, predictions and best bets for Thursday's games involving Tottenham, Celtic & Rangers
Mark Stinchcombe previews Europa League qualifying with Tottenham, Rangers and Celtic all in action on Thursday. Check out his best bets.
Recommended bets
2pts Willem II to beat Rangers at 17/5
1pt Celtic to win & under 3.5 goals at 11/10
1pt Harry Kane 2+ Goals at 5/2
1pt Son to score anytime & Spurs to win at 10/11
1pt Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals in Milan v Bodo-Glimt at 8/11
0.5pts Gorkem Saglam to score anytime in Willem II v Rangers at 10/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Riga v Celtic
- 1800 kick-off | Premier Sports
- Match odds: Home 11/ | Draw 9/2 | Away 1/5
Celtic travel to Latvia in the Europa League third qualifying round following their disappointing exit to Ferencvaros in the Champions League. Their league campaign, however, has started as expected with them winning six and drawing one of their opening seven games, and priced at 1/5 here another win is expected.
Riga enter this match top of the Latvian league having won 17 of their 19 games this season, conceding only 12 goals, so it won’t be easy for Celtic. They also managed to beat Copenhagen, the same side that knocked Celtic out in the knockout stages, 1-0 at home in the play-offs last season, so it will be important the Scottish side do not take Riga lightly.
I’m expecting the Latvian side to set-up in a defensive manner, looking to keep things tight, given the 12 European qualifying games they’ve played in over the last two seasons have seen an average of just 1.83 goals per game (22 in total), with all six home matches finishing under 3.5 goals.
Celtic have played 11 qualifiers across the Champions and Europa League over the last three years, with eight of those finishing with under 3.5 goals, including wins over Nõmme Kalju, Alashkert and Linfield when priced 1/5, 1/4 and 1/9 respectively. Boosting the 1/6 to 11/10 for a Celtic win by backing under 3.5 goals looks the way to go here.
Best bet: Celtic to win & under 3.5 goals 11/10
Shkendija v Tottenham Hotspur
- 1900 kick-off | Premier Sports
- Match Odds: Home 18/1 | Draw 13/2 | Away 1/10
Despite naming a first-choice team, Tottenham suffered a huge scare in the last round against Bulgarian side Lokomotiv Plovdiv, going 1-0 down before two late goals from Harry Kane and Tanguy Ndombele saw them scrape through 2-1. They then followed that up by scoring five at Southampton in an impressive win.
The postponement of their match against Leyton Orient in the Carabao Cup should mean Jose Mourinho can name as strong a team as possible to ensure progress as 1/9 favourites in this one-off tie.
North Macedonian side Shkendija’s European exploits recently amount to a 5-1 aggregate defeat to Rosenborg, a 7-0 aggregate defeat to AC Milan and a 6-1 aggregate defeat to Gent. This season in the previous round they upset the odds with a smash-and-grab 1-0 away win at Botosani as 10/3 underdogs. At 16/1, it is a huge ask to win this.
It is seen as 50-50 whether Tottenham can score three or more here and given that price there are a couple of player bets I like the look of a lot better. Harry Kane has scored 26 goals in his last 37 games and has a fantastic record in Europe with 30 goals in 35 games. He’s 3/1 to score two or more and I like the look of that given he’s obviously also on penalty duties.
As we saw in the last round with Kane scoring a penalty, they can be more prevalent in these matches with a gulf in quality as the favourites dominate and the underdogs tire and make mistakes.
Son Heung-min scored four goals on Sunday meaning he now has 12 in his last 16 games and the 10/11 he scores and Spurs win looks worth backing when they are just 1/9 to win.
Best bet: Harry Kane 2+ Goals at 5/2
Milan v Bodo/Glimt
- 1930 kick-off
- Match Odds: Home 1/4 | Draw 9/2 | Away 15/2
This will be the fourth time that Bodo/Glimt will take on Italian opposition in Europe. On aggregate scores, in 1976 they were defeated 3-0 by Napoli, in 1978 7-1 by Inter and in 1994 4-3 by Sampdoria. And despite being around 7/1 to beat seven-time European Champions AC Milan, I believe this could be their best chance yet to cause an upset in a one-off match behind closed doors.
After last week's 3-1 win over Zalgiris Vilnius they followed that up with another 3-1 win over Brann, meaning they have now won 18 of 20 games this season, scoring a mammoth 68 goals at an average of 3.40 per game. They’re no strangers to conceding at the other end given their constant attacking, with their matches averaging a whopping 4.80 total goals per game.
Since Serie A returned in June Milan have been in great form. They are unbeaten in 15 games across all competitions, winning 11, scoring 39 goals and conceding 12 - at an average of 3.40 per game. Their summer business has been mostly to consolidate which is no bad thing when you tie Zlatan Ibrahimovic down for another season and make the loan deal of Ante Rebic permanent. This should also aid continuity with the bonus of wonderkid Sandro Tonali added from Brescia and Brahim Diaz on loan from Real Madrid added on top.
With Milan having only played two games this season there could be a bit of rustiness in the ranks which Bodo/Glimt could take advantage of. Indeed, both teams to score is only 1/2 but adding another goal boosts the odds up to 8/11. Three goals could be enough for the bet to win which doesn’t look a big ask when Bodo/Glimt’s matches are averaging nearly five a game.
Willem II v Rangers
- 2000 kick-off
- Match Odds: Home 14/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 4/5
Very surprised to see the odds on offer here. I expected Rangers to be favourites but odds-on seems ridiculously short. Willem II finished an impressive fifth in the Eredivise last season after the early culmination of the league, with some memorable results including winning 2-0 at 2019 Champions League semi-finalists Ajax, winning 3-1 at AZ, who finished joint first with Ajax, and beating PSV 2-1 at home.
I’m really struggling to get on board with Rangers at 4/5. Under Steven Gerrard they’ve won just five out of 18 Europa League away games (28%). And if we look at the odds they were against teams that are of similar/less ability than Willem II, then odds-on really starts to look wrong:
- 9/4 at Young Boys
- 6/5 at Legia Warsaw
- 19/10 at Midtjylland
- 17/10 at Rapid Vienna
- 6/4 at Ufa
- 12/5 at Maribor
- 2/1 at Osijek
Willem II beat Progres Niedercorn 5-0 in the previous round priced at 1/3. Ironically Rangers went there last year and were 1/4 in a 0-0 draw. So you can see why I think the match odds should be closer than they are, which is why I’m backing Willem II. In the last round there were 10 upsets and the one-off tie situation may suit the underdogs.
Another bet I like in this match is Gorkem Saglam to score anytime for the hosts. Saglam joined in January from Bochum but didn't really get a look-in last season. This season he's started all three games and scored twice already. The 22-year-old was on fire for Bochum U19 growing up, bagging 25 goals in 44 games and after barely getting a look-in the first team, it could well be that he's rediscovered his goalscoring form.
On Saturday he had three shots, two in the penalty area, which Opta described as 'big chances' with one scoring and the other unluckily hitting the frame of the goal. At 10/1 he looks a great bet for a midfielder in a 4-3-3 with the license to get forward and into the box.
Best bet: Willem II to beat Rangers at 17/5
Best bet: Gorkem Saglam to score anytime at 11/1
Odds correct as of 0803 BST on 24/9/20
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