Europa League betting tips: Everton v MFK Ruzomberok preview
Everton start their season on Thursday night in Europa League qualifying and Andy Schooler has 8/1 and 10/1 tips for the game.
Recommended bets: Europa League qualifying
0.5pt Ashley Williams to score at any time at 10/1 - see above
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Everton v MFK Ruzomberok (2005 BST, ITV4)
Everton may have been one of the summer’s big spenders but all their new-found wealth does not allow them to bypass the Europa League qualifying stages.
Thus their season will get under way on Thursday night at a sold-out Goodison Park.
The fact their clash with Slovakia’s third-best team of last season will be watched by close to 35,000 people is testament not only to the club’s decision to sell tickets for £15 but also the buzz around the club following a busy transfer window thus far.
In another year the sale of hot-shot Romelu Lukaku would have left doom and gloom among the Goodison faithful but instead of the funds going to pay off debts, the £75million fee – and more – has been reinvested with Michael Keane, Dutch midfielder Davy Klaassen and young striker Sandro Ramirez among the players arriving.
That’s before you mention free transfer Wayne Rooney, on whatever wages he’s currently commanding.
There’s now huge competition in the squad, particularly in midfield, and it’s definitely a case of quality and not simply quantity.
I don’t claim to be an expert on Slovakian football but my research on this game suggests the visitors’ summer has been somewhat different with one of their best players, striker Jakub Mares, sold to domestic rivals Slovan Bratislava.
On the plus side, Ruzomberok have been playing competitively for several weeks now and their players may well be more match sharp than those in a blue shirt.
However, their undoubtedly inferior quality has been shown up in the two ties they’ve played so far - on each occastion they’ve had to recover a first-leg deficit in beating first Serbian outfit Vojvodina and then Norwegians Brann.
On Sunday they opened their domestic campaign with another loss and you also wonder how they will cope with playing in front of such a large crowd for the first time – Slovak league games often have fewer than 2,000 people in attendance.
There would appear to be two main factors which could coast Everton – complacency and lack of match practice.
I’m not sure the first will come into play much given the club’s situation of serious competition for places. I’m also pretty convinced the message will have been put out along the lines of ‘let’s get the job done’ before next week’s second leg.
A big win at Goodison will mean the away game can be treated as another warm-up game for the tougher tests ahead. That will surely be Ronald Koeman’s target and would also presumably suit the players.
The match practice issue is more real, although it’s a case of so far, so good for Everton with three pre-season games played, two won and one drawn.
The fact that Europa League qualifying begins before the Premier League can be a problem and history shows that.
Everton may be 1/20 to progress from the tie but it’s worth noting that Hull, Southampton (under Koeman) and West Ham (twice) have all failed in the qualifying phase in the past three seasons, losing to Lokeren, Midtjylland and Astra Giurgiu (twice) respectively.
However, as already suggested, Everton’s current situation gives you every reason to expect something better from them this season and while I’ll win no awards for saying so, I do see them posting a convincing victory in this first leg.
You won’t get rich quickly backing them to win the game at 1/8 but there are other markets which offer greater value.
The one I like the look of is for the Toffees to win both halves. This enhances the price to a shade under even money - Paddy Power offer 10/11 - which looks fair enough.
While there may be some concern that a defensive mindset from the visitors could thwart the hosts early on, it's encouraging from the bet's perspective to note that Everton have led during all three friendlies they've played in past couple of weeks.
Lukaku may have gone but Rooney has started life back in blue well and he’s likely to be fully motivated ahead of his return to the ground which launched his name.
He’s not the player he was when scoring a hat-trick on his European debut back in 2004 but pre-season indications also suggest he’s not done yet.
After scoring on both pre-season starts, unsurprisingly Rooney is odds-on to net in this one. Nothing to write home about there.
However, I’m always keen on seeking out value in the anytime scorer market when I feel a big win is on the cards and other names do make appeal.
Not too many outside Liverpool will know of Kieran Dowell but he’s another to have caught the eye in pre-season.
Like Rooney, the teenager has scored twice in pre-season, while his record for the club’s under-23 team shows he’s netted 14 times in 35 games from his attacking midfield role.
At 21/10, there appears to be some scope in backing Dowell – if he plays.
That competition for places in midfield is the problem though and this looks like a bet which will have to wait until the line-ups are known. If he plays, Dowell is a bet at the price.
In the here and now, I am prepared to back a couple of Everton’s defenders to net at fancy prices.
Ruzomberok have shown a weakness from set plays – Brann���s first-leg winner came from a corner in the last round, as did Zlate Moravce's in Sunday’s first domestic game.
With Everton expected to dominate possession and possessing plenty of width – they’ve largely played a 4-3-3 formation in pre-season and can be expected to do something similar here – they should win plenty of corners and that will bring both Michael Keane and Ashley Williams into play.
Having started against both Twente and Genk, those two look the first-choice pairing at the back, ahead of Phil Jagielka.
Given Jagielka netted three times in Everton’s last eight games of last season, that’s disappointing from a punting point of view.
However, both Keane and Williams still offer threat from set-pieces and with Rooney’s quality added to that department in terms of dead-ball delivery, splitting a small stake between the duo is the advice.
Prediction: Everton 3-0 Ruzomberok
Posted at 1645 BST on 26/07/17.
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