Sky Bet Championship: Nick Hext's betting tips

Nick Hext is backing Brighton to win at Aston Villa to secure the Sky Bet Championship title on Sunday.

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Recommended bet: Championship

2pts Brighton to beat Aston Villa at 6/5 - Seagulls will be out to end a fine season with the Championship title

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Brighton to beat Aston Villa, Championship

The Sky Bet Championship title race somehow comes down to the last day of the season after Brighton's two defeats in a row let second-placed Newcastle back in. The Seagulls are now just one point ahead of the Magpies so victory at Aston Villa is required for Chris Hughton's men to bag the trophy. I think Brighton will get the job done. Villa have failed to impress in the run-in, only beating local rivals Birmingham in their last five games, and boss Steve Bruce has a huge amount of work to do before the next campaign gets started. Brighton are simply the better side in this match and 6/5 is a price worth taking for the Seagulls to depart for the Premier League in style. Newcastle, who host Barnsley to end the season, were my ante-post title tip so it obviously makes sense for punters in the same boat as me to show support for Brighton against lacklustre Villa on the final day of a cracking Sky Bet Championship campaign.

Other bets worth considering:    

Jota to score in Brentford v Blackburn Rovers

Blackburn, Nottingham Forest and Birmingham are all still in relegation danger on the final day of the Sky Bet Championship season. The full permutations are listed below and they show that third-bottom Blackburn are in the most danger of dropping down into League One. Rovers are just one goal behind Forest in the standings but they face a very tough trip to Brentford, who have won their last four home games in a row with ease. Jota has been the star for the Bees since returning to the club from LaLiga outfit Eibar during January. The Spaniard has netted 12 goals for Brentford in 2017 and he's my tip to find the back of the net against Blackburn. I think Rovers will fall agonisingly short of survival and Jota can play his part in sending the Ewood Park outfit out of the second tier, with live coverage available on Sky Sports Mix.

Over 2.5 goals in Nottingham Forest v Ipswich Town

Nottingham Forest will be delighted to end the campaign with home advantage against Ipswich. Forest haven't won in their last 14 matches on the road, since winning 5-2 at Barnsley back in November, but they've won two of their previous three home games to stay out of the relegation zone. I reckon Mark Warburton's men will claim a narrow victory against Ipswich and there should be goals. Forest beat Reading 3-2 in their previous City Ground outings and I like the chances of at least over 2.5 goals so that's my interest in this contest.

Posted at 2130 BST on 04/04/17. 

Sky Bet Championship permutations

Brighton and Newcastle are already promoted but the Seagulls can secure the title with victory at Aston Villa on Sunday. However, Newcastle can swoop late and grab the trophy if they better the Seagulls' result at home to Barnsley. The play-off spots are all-but settled. 

Fulham are three points clear of Leeds and are 13 goals better off, so Leeds would only grab the final play-off place if they win and Fulham lose with a 14-goal swing.

The real focus will be on the battle for survival, where one of Blackburn (48 points), Nottingham Forest (48 points) and Birmingham (50 points) will be relegated.

Birmingham have their destiny in their own hands away to Bristol City. A win would be enough to guarantee a place in next season's Championship. However, a defeat or a draw would mean curtains for Harry Redknapp's men if both Nottingham Forest and Blackburn win as their goal difference is vastly inferior. 

The permutations become tricky when analysing Forest and Blackburn's potential scenario.

Forest, who are at home to Ipswich, need to equal or better Blackburn's result away at Brentford as Forest have a slightly better goal difference.

There is a situation where Forest win and could still go down. For this to occur, Blackburn and Birmingham would also need to win with Rovers notching up a win margin two goals bigger than Forest's victory.

For Blackburn, they need to better Forest's result but can also stay up with the aforementioned two-goal margin swing.

They can lose and still survive. However, it would involve Forest losing by two or more goals at the City Ground. 

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