Football betting tips: Champions League
Champions League top goalscorer
3pts e.w. Raphinha to be top goalscorer at 20/1 (William Hill 1/4, 1-4)
1pt e.w. Serhou Guirassy to be top goalscorer at 66/1 (General 1/4, 1-4)
1pt e.w. Deniz Undav to be top goalscorer at 150/1 (BetVictor 1/4, 1-4)
1pt e.w. Ricardo Pepi to be top goalscorer at 150/1 (BoyleSports 1/4, 1-4)
League phase
0.5pt Villarreal to finish bottom of the league at 150/1 (General)
Jake Osgathorpe
It's gone from being impossible to win the Champions League in back-to-back seasons to somewhat common place.
It was 25 years between repeat winners Milan (1989 and 1990) and Real Madrid (2016 and 2017) but less than a decade to the next after PSG followed up their breakthrough success in 2025 with another UCL trophy in 2026.
Luis Enrique's side are the 5/1 favourites to win Old Big Ears and do what that Madrid team did and 'three-peat', something only done by Los Blancos in the last 45 years.
To be fair to Les Parisiens they have done it the hard way the last two seasons, failing to finish in the top eight of the league phase and thus needing to win an extra knockout round, but it's suited them as they seem to grow into the season after sluggish starts.
This season has been no different so far, with Enrique's side winless in four matches against Ligue 1 opponents. At this stage, they are best avoided in the market and that's a stance worth taking across the board in the outright.
Backing anyone before the knockout phase, not knowing the bracket, is a tough ask, especially when you can throw a blanket over the top five in the betting.
PSG, Barcelona, Arsenal, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid are all 6/1 and shorter, with Manchester City the only other side shorter than 10/1. While it's hard to see the winner of the competition coming from outside that six, nailing your colours to a mast at this stage is best avoided.
Value-wise, it's probably City who get the nod after their summer splurge and the fact Enzo Maresca has proven he is a good cup manager, but they have a very tough league phase schedule meaning they could face a play-off and from then a tough run in the knockouts.
Barca and Bayern have defensive flaws, Real Madrid could implode at any moment under Jose Mourinho, and Arsenal are much shorter this season having won the Premier League and finished as runners-up in this competition last term.
Of the rest, Liverpool (12/1) and Manchester United (20/1) should probably be nearly double the prices given their defensive shortcomings and inexperienced managers, Italian football is struggling massively at the moment which makes Inter (28/1) unbackable while Atletico Madrid (33/1) have been miserable to start the season.
It's hard to look past one of the 'big six', but waiting until the knockout bracket is drawn and the January transfer window is closed before backing anyone is the advice.
Feel the Raph in top scorer market
While outright winners are best avoided, TOP SCORER bets should not be.
Last season's award, won by Kylian Mbappe, was effectively won in the league phase after the Frenchman scored 11 times in eight outings before adding a further four in the knockouts, with Harry Kane second after notching 14.
Anthony Gordon, now at Barcelona, was joint third alongside Julian Alvarez and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia with 10, with Erling Haaland (8) suffering due to City getting knocked out early.
The season before saw the Golden Boot shared between RAPHINHA and Serhou Guirassy, with the Brazilian worth backing again in a Barcelona team that is much better than two years ago and is absolutely purring.
They sold Ferran Torres and Robert Lewandowski in the summer window leaving them without a recognised striker, but that has meant Raphinha playing through the middle and boy is it working.
Barca have played four times in La Liga so far and scored an eye-watering 17 goals, with the Brazilian netting in every game and firing six in total at a goals per 90 average of 1.69, while his underlying data is 1.52 xG per 90.
We may only be in the early throes of the season, but the rate at which Barca are creating chances is unlikely to change given their firepower, the depth in attack and Hansi Flick's gung-ho style.
A big plus for a top goalscorer bet too is the fact Raphinha is on penalty duty for this relentless Barcelona team, already slotting one spot-kick away this term, and the schedule in the league phase should give the Barca captain plenty of opportunities to rack up the goals early.
Barca do face PSG away but get to play Manchester City at home which is a plus, from pot 2 they drew Aston Villa at home and Sporting Lisbon away while pots 3 and 4 threw them some really nice fixtures for potentially racking up the goals in Feyenoord, Galatasaray, Como and Sabah FK.
We are getting 20/1 here about the starting striker of the best attack in the competition, who is on penalty duty, which can't be turned down. His team-mate Lamine Yamal, who isn't on penalties and is nowhere near as prolific a goalscorer as Raphinha is the same price in most places which just isn't right.
Like Barca, Real Madrid have a kind league phase draw which helps explains why Mbappe is the 7/2 favourite and that's completely fair given his scoring record, but Jude Bellingham (16/1) and Vinicius Jr (18/1) are both shorter than Raphinha which, again, doesn't make sense.
At the prices, I make him the best bet on the board at this stage.
Yellow Submarine to sink in league phase
This is a completely daft bet but the price looks way off here for VILLARREAL TO FINISH BOTTOM OF THE LEAGUE PHASE at 150/1.
Understandably, the minnows and newcomers dominate this market, with Sabah FK 2/1 favourites followed by Yaya Toure's Slovan Bratislava (9/2), Celtic's conquerors LASK (5/1) and Viking (8/1), but all of those sides have shown plenty and have enough in their favour to suggest they can be far more competitive than the odds suggest.
Azerbaijani champions Sabah have the advantage of being in a remote location, making their home games great opportunities to get points as Qarabag did last season, a trip to Slovakia won't be straightforward, LASK looked incredible at home against Celtic in their attack-minded manner while Norwegian side Viking are mid-league-season so have a fitness edge as well as a climate one when we head into winter.
There are a lot of teams between those four and Villarreal, but after their poor start to the season following the appointment of new manager Inigo Perez, who was poached from Rayo Vallecano, and lack of incomings in the transfer market, I think they should be much, much closer to 25/1.
They are winless to start the new La Liga season despite playing two newly-promoted sides, losing their last two, and have conceded 12 times in those four contests. And new manager Perez has never managed at this level before.
Believe it or not, in last season's Champions League league phase they avoided finishing bottom on goal difference alone - that's how bad they were.
The Yellow Submarine lost seven of eight, picking up just one point, and in fact scored the joint-fewest goals in the league phase. Given the squad and manager have remained the same, is a repeat completely inconceivable?
Factor in the schedule and this bet should hopefully give us a run for our money.
Villarreal host reigning champions PSG, Manchester United, Napoli and Sabah, with that game against the Azerbaijani minnows potentially huge for this bet. They must travel to Liverpool, Dortmund, Fenerbache and Slavia Prague - that's a daunting four away fixtures at some of the toughest and most hostile stadiums in world football.
So at 150/1 I think it's worth a small swing in the hope the Yellow Submarine once again sink on the continent.
Target big-priced trio
The Champions League's been a fairly happy hunting ground for me in recent seasons and my hope is that it continues in the goalscorer market this time around.
I'm avoiding the front runners and going for big prices - two of the three made three-figure chances. One of those though has achieved it following the change to the current format.
That is, as mentioned above, Dortmund striker GUIRASSY, with 66/1 available that he achieves the same outcome this time around.
Guirassy's started the campaign with goals in each of his two Bundesliga outings with last season delivering 17 in 33 outings in Germany's top-flight. Add in all competitions and it's 22 in 46.
He's an established goalscorer and has been over a number of years, with 62 goals netted alongside 16 assists in 99 appearances for his current club.
In the Champions League, it's a superb return rate of 19 in 28 with a further nine assists sitting alongside that.
While I, like many others should do, always hold doubts about Dortmund fulfilling their full potential, the fixture list isn't too bad for them meaning Guirassy will have opportunities to strike in the League Stage while his side should go beyond it.
Home contests see them welcoming AEK Athens, Inter, Real Betis and Villarreal, while away contests at Aston Villa, Bodo/Glimt and Sabah Baku could have been much worse.
We await to see if he is given penalty duties given mixed fortunes from the spot last season but even without it, I'd expect him to see enough chances from open play.
Sticking with German sides and you could make a case that Stuttgart have one of the best eight fixtures of any side involved in the competition. They welcome Atletico Madrid and also travel to Inter.
But then their other home games see them against Club Brugge, Lille and Viking, with away trips to Galatasaray, PSV and Slovan Bratislava also presenting winnable contests.
They are 6/1 in places for a top eight finish which isn't the worst price considering their fixtures but then I remain unsure on their full potential in this competition.
Instead, I'd rather side with DENIZ UNDAV to be the TOP GOALSCORER at 150/1. He's been a hit at Stuttgart following his arrival from Brighton in 2023.
Undav heads into the Champions League on the back of a season which delivered 25 goals in 46 outings with a further 14 assists for teammates.
One concern is the creativity and whether that takes away from his own goalscoring potential but he's demonstrated an ability to strike from a variety of situations. He can create something for himself rather than solely relying on others.
That's a particular positive when featuring for a team like Stuttgart, one with the potential to progress but with question marks surrounding just how far.
Last season's form carried into the World Cup with three goals in four outings, all of those coming despite the fact he wasn't a starting figure for Die Mannschaft.
Like Guirassy, Undav may not hold penalty duties with Maximilian Mittelstädt previously being on spot kicks for Stuttgart previously. Even then, it's a big enough price to be worth backing.
One final pick from me comes from one of Stuttgart's opponents in PSV, with RICARDO PEPI an intriguing TOP GOALSCORER pick at 150/1. Again, it's another side with fixtures which could have been worse.
They host Atletico Madrid but have a trip to Real in their eight. Club Brugge, Shakhtar Donetsk and Stuttgart represent decent enough home contests though.
Porto, RB Leipzig and Viking are the away trips which again should give Pepi some scoring opportunities and based on recent PSV showings you'd back him to take them.
Pepi's started the campaign with three goals across five Eredivisie outings, with 19 coming in 34 appearances during an injury-disrupted 25/26 season.
If he can stay fit, he's demonstrated that he is a player who can really thrive on momentum. On two occasions last season he went on a five-game league run of scoring and the expanded format of the current Champions League gives more chance to a European game falling during a hot streak.
He leads the line in a PSV side who were by far the best attacking side in the Netherlands last season. They netted 101 goals in 34 games with the next-best being NEC Nijmegen with 77. Those goals came from an expected goals (xG) figure of 76.2, with the current campaign returning 15.3 for 18 goals in five games.
While last season's Champions League campaign was one of disappointment for the Dutch outfit, they had some tougher fixtures than this time around and only missed out on the top-24 by a point.
Three wins and a draw may well be enough to give them an extra two games - further chances for Pepi to add to his tally.
Odds correct at 12:30 BST (04/09/26)
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