Football betting tips: Sky Bet League One
2.5pts Reading to commit 12+ fouls at evens (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 26/1
- Reading to commit 12+ fouls
- Birmingham to win
- Both teams to score
- Alfie May to score anytime
- Sam Smith to score anytime
Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Home 8/15 | Draw 29/10 | Away 4/1
It is rare that we see such a short priced favourite to win arguably the most difficult league in the football pyramid. Sky Bet League One has trapped some huge clubs for multiple years, yet Birmingham are 2/1 to canter back up to the Championship.
While it may be hard to get on board with, the spending and the early (admittedly pre-season) displays suggest they could hose up. The biggest question mark though is the rookie manager Chris Davies.
It's a huge amount of pressure for a man who has never been the head honcho anywhere.
The Blues open up their campaign with a tough looking contest against Ruben Selles' Reading, who defied a six point deduction, major off-field issues and the lightest of squads to finish 17th last season.
They will be hoping to kick on this term and creep into the top half, and what better way to highlight that intent than by sticking it to the favs on opening weekend.
What are the best bets?
The best bet in this game revolves around the underdogs biting the heavy favourites - not literally, but almost.
We are backing READING TO COMMIT 12+ FOULS on Saturday, with the dynamic of the game and the style of Ruben Selles' team making this bet look incredibly appealing.
At home, we can expect the pre-season favourites to dominate the ball and play on the front foot, meaning Reading will have to get stuck in, something they were excellent at last season.
The Royals were in fact one of the dirtiest teams in Sky Bet League One, committing 554 fouls at an average of 12 per game. They topped the charts for tackles (524), which only further highlights their in-your-face, combative style.
More impressively is how they racked up fouls against the league's best too.
Against teams to finish in the top six, Selles' men committed 12+ fouls in 10 of 12, with the two matches in which they came up short coming at the end of the season when they had already secured survival.
In total they averaged 13.3 fouls per game against those sides, so even money for a similar approach against a top side looks a standout bet.
I was very close to doing what I did in the Euros, and add a higher foul line too, but at the time of writing only Sky Bet have priced this market, and they jump from 12+ at evens to 15+ at 7/2. Ideally I'd like 14+ but it isn't priced.
Those that do want to chance the higher line, it is worth mentioning that away at last season's top six before they had nothing to play for, they committed 17, 13, 15 and 17 fouls.
Team news
Birmingham head into the season with left-back Lee Buchanan out injured, meaning summer signing Alex Cochrane could start in that role.
It will be interesting to see how Chris Davies fits all of his sides' talent into the starting XI - a nice problem to have.
Reading will be missing club captain Andy Yiadom for their season opener, and could also be without Jeriel Dorsett and Kelvin Abrefa, although Selles is hopeful that both will be available this weekend.
Predicted line-ups
Birmingham XI: Peacock-Farrell; Laird, Sanderson, Bielik, Cochrane; Paik, James, Miyoshi, Willumsson, Dembele; May.
Reading XI: Pereira; Elliott, Mbengue, Dean, Abrefa; Wing, Craig, Azeez, Knibbs; Ehibhatiomhan, Smith.
Match facts
- Birmingham City have won just one of their last four league games against Reading (D1 L2), though that victory came in their last such home match against them in December 2022 (3-2).
- Since August 2017, Reading have alternated between winning and losing their away league games against Birmingham City (W3 L3), losing 3-2 on their last such visit to St. Andrews.
- Birmingham City are unbeaten across their last six opening games of a league season (W3 D3), keeping a clean sheet in four of their last five such matches.
- Reading have lost each of their last three opening games of a league season, and six of their last seven in (W1).
Odds correct at 1030 BST (09/08/24)
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