Football betting tips: Champions League
3pts Bukayo Saka to score or assist at 8/11 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Bukayo Saka to score and assist at 11/2 (bet365)
0.5pt Thomas Partey to score a header at 80/1 (bet365)
Arsenal look to edge towards the Champions League knockout stage on Wednesday with the visit of Monaco.
Both clubs are competing at the top ends of their domestic divisions but according to the odds, this one should go the way of the hosts.
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The Gunners are imperious at the Emirates, not only taking maximum points from their last six European games but doing so without conceding a goal. You have to go back to 2016 to find the last visiting side to keep a clean sheet here in a European competition.
Adi Hutter’s side have made a habit of finding the net this season though, scoring in 90% of their 19 fixtures in all competitions. They started the week as one of a cluster of seven sides on 10 points, level with Arsenal but a place behind them in eighth.
The Ligue 1 club beat Bologna 1-0 in their last away game in this competition and the 3-2 defeat against Benfica in their last Champions League outing can be chalked down to Wilfried Singo’s red card.
So, although the goals markets are tempting, there is only one way to play an Arsenal game at the moment.
What are the best bets?
Set-pieces, more specifically corners, are Arsenal’s speciality. They have scored 23 goals directly from them since the beginning of last season.
William Saliba’s equaliser in the 1-1 draw at Fulham is the latest example, his second goal from a corner in as many games. The other one came against Manchester United where Jurrien Timber also profited. Prior to that, Gabriel Magalhaes nodded in in consecutive games against Sporting and West Ham.
That is five goals in the last four games all from corners. So, how do we profit from it?
The most ambitious way is to combine the taker to get 1+ ASSIST with a player TO SCORE A HEADER.
Declan Rice and BUKAYO SAKA share set-piece duty but the tricky part is working out who is going to be the target because of Arsenal’s defensive injuries.
Gabriel is the main threat but has missed the last two games with injury. He could return on Wednesday and if he does, combining him to score a header with Rice to assist and Saka to assist as separate bets are worth a tout.
If the Brazilian does miss out, Saliba, Timber and THOMAS PARTEY will all be dead-ball targets so keep an eye on team news.
The latter is a whopping 80/1 TO SCORE A HEADER. He is hardly prolific but five of his 14 shots have come from corners this season and three of them have been with his head. Each of those headed shots have come in his last two games where he has notched up an xG of 0.52.
One player who is almost certain to start is Saka and he has seven goals and 11 assists in 18 games across the Champions League and Premier League this term.
In this competition, he has scored or assisted in four of Arsenal’s games since the beginning of last season and had a direct hand in eight goals in his six home games.
At 8/11, backing him to SCORE OR ASSIST on Wednesday is simply too big and backing him to do both and SCORE AND ASSIST is also worth a punt at 11/2.
Team news
As previously mentioned Arsenal have defensive issues. Gabriel, Riccardo Calafiori and Oleksandr Zinchenko will be given every chance to play here. Wednesday’s game looks to have come too soon for Ben White and Takehiro Tomiyasi though. Partey should start at right-back with Timber on the left of Saliba and Jakub Kiwior.
As for the visitors, Arsenal academy product Folarin Balogun misses out with injury as does Krepin Diatta. Singo and Christian Mawissa are suspended.
Predicted line-ups
Arsenal: Raya; Partey, Saliba, Kiwior, Timber; Odegaard, Rice, Merino; Saka, Havertz, Martinelli.
Monaco: Majecki; Vanderson, Salisu, Kehrer, Henrique; Zakaria, Camara; Akliouche, Minamino, Golovin; Embolo.
Match facts
- Arsenal and Monaco’s only two meetings in Europe came in the Last 16 of the UEFA Champions League in 2014-15. The Gunners were eliminated from the tie on away goals (3-3 on aggregate), despite winning the second leg 2-0 away from home (lost 1-3 at the Emirates).
- Monaco have won five of their last seven matches against English sides in the UEFA Champions League (L2), recording victories against four different sides in this run (Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham x2 and Manchester City). However, this will be their first such game since beating Man City 3-1 in March 2017.
- Only Barcelona and Bayern Munich (both 7) have won more home games in the UEFA Champions League since the start of last season than Arsenal (6), while their six clean sheets is the joint-most in that time along with Internazionale.
- Monaco won their previous away game in the UEFA Champions League (1-0 at Bologna), and will be looking to win back-to-back away matches in the competition for the first time since the 2014-15 campaign. The second victory on that occasion was at Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium (3-1), following up a 1-0 triumph at Bayer Leverkusen previously.
- The last visiting side to keep a clean sheet at the Emirates against Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League was Barcelona in February 2016 (2-0 win), with the Gunners netting in 11 home games in the competition since then and averaging 2.6 goals per match (29 in total).
- Arsenal led all teams in the opening five matchdays of the UEFA Champions League this season for high-intensity pressures in the final third (666). Indeed, the individual player who made the most in the opening five rounds was Arsenal forward Kai Havertz (179).
- Only Liverpool (6) have scored more goals from crosses in the UEFA Champions League this season than Arsenal (3), while Monaco conceded two goals from crosses last time out against Benfica.
- Bukayo Saka has both scored and assisted in four different games for Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League since the start of last season, more than any other player. Indeed, he’s been involved in eight goals in his six home games in the competition (5 goals, 3 assists).
- Eliesse Ben Seghir netted his first UEFA Champions League goal last time out (v Benfica), while he could become just the second teenager to score in consecutive appearances in the competition for Monaco, after Kylian Mbappé in April 2017 (a run of four).
- No player created more chances following a carry across the first five UEFA Champions League matchdays this season than Arsenal’s Gabriel Martinelli (7), while only Jamal Musiala (2.17) had a higher expected assist total than the Brazilian (2.15) in the same period.
Odds correct at 1450 GMT (10/12/24)
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