Football betting tips: Thursday best bets
1pt Over 7.5 cards in Fenerbache vs Lyon (17:45) at 4/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1.5pts Fred to be carded in Fenerbache vs Lyon (17:45) at 29/10 (Unibet)
1pt Red card in Fenerbache vs Lyon (17:45) at 19/5 (Unibet)
0.5pt Both teams red card in Fenerbache vs Lyon (17:45) at 70/1 (William Hill)
1.5pt Nico Gonzalez to be carded in Porto vs Olympiakos (17:45) at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Fenerbache vs Lyon
- Kick-off: 17:45 GMT, Thursday
- TV: TNT Sport 5
- Home 11/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 21/10
This is must-win for Jose Mourinho's Fenerbache. The Turkish giants sit 21st in the league phase, and should they lose here they could well be on the outside of the top 24 ahead of a final game showdown away at Midtjylland.
Lyon are up in fourth, one win away from confirming their place in the last 16 via a top eight finish, so the stakes are high for both teams which means one thing - CARDS, and a lot of them.
These two sides have been excellent for cards so far in this competition, with Fenerbache's matches averaging a whopping 6.8 cards and Lyon's seeing 5.8, no surprise then that the card line is set at 5.5.
That line should probably be higher here given the stakes, the teams involved and the referee appointment. The man in the middle is Italian Simon Sozza, a good appointment for card backers, with him averaging 4.91 cards per game in European competition over the last two seasons.
So, I'll take a somewhat speculative punt on OVER 7.5 CARDS at a price of 4/1.
This bet would have won in three of Fenerbache's six matches and in two of Lyon's in the Europa League, so a combined strike rate of 42%. Add in the fact that a lead for either team will lead to time wasting and cynical fouls, while the trailing team will get frustrated and lash out, and I'll happily take a swing.
Chancing a player card makes perfect sense too, with FRED getting the nod TO BE CARDED at just shy of 3/1.
The ex-Manchester United midfielder has been booked three times in this competition already this season, missing Fener's last outing due to suspension - an important detail as a yellow card in this game won't see him miss the final league phase game.
Mourinho has recently switched to a back three system, meaning the Brazilian and his partner Sofyan Amrabaat have been left more exposed of late, and against a vibrant Lyon attack who have scored 15 times in six Europa League games and 10 times in three away from home, the pair will have their work cut out.
Fred gets the vote on price basis, with Amrabaat a best price 2/1.
Finally, and not to go overboard, I'll also back a RED CARD IN THE MATCH at near 4/1.
Things could easily boil over here, especially should Fenerbache fall behind with this game a real last chance saloon. So far in their three home league phase games this bet has won twice, with three reds in total as BOTH TEAMS RECEIVED A RED CARD in their match with Union St-Gilloise.
Referee Sozza has brandished a red card in two of his last 11 European contests too, sending of a player from both teams in one of those, so I'll again get speculative and chance both sides at 70/1 to be reduced to 10-men in a game that really could kick off.
Porto vs Olympiakos
- Kick-off: 17:45 GMT, Thursday
- TV: TNT Sport 6
- Home 4/7 | Draw 3/1 | Away 17/4
Another card bet here, with Porto midfielder NICO GONZALEZ simply too big at 3/1 TO BE CARDED.
The youngster has averaged 2.04 fouls per 90 on the continent this season, and has been carded three times in five outings, missing Porto's last European outing through suspension.
And, if that's not enough for you, domestically he's averaged 2.24 fouls per 90 and has been shown yellow seven times and red once - this past weekend - averaging 0.43 cards per 90.
He has in fact been carded in all of his last three starts, and with the stakes high here given Porto are down in 18th in the standings, just two points above the elimination line, his price looks simply massive on Thursday.
Odds correct at 1400 GMT (21/01/25)
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