Football betting tips: Champions League, EFL
1.5pts Millwall or draw vs Leeds (19:45) at evens (Sky Bet)
1pt No goalscorer in Millwall vs Leeds at 15/2 (BetVictor)
1pt Asger Sørensen to score anytime in Sparta Prague vs Brest (20:00) at 14/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Inigo Martinez to score anytime in Crvena zvezda vs Barca (20:00) at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Anthony Rouault to score anytime in Stuttgart vs Atalanta (20:00) at 22/1 (bet365)
Millwall vs Leeds
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Wednesday
- TV: Sky Sports +
- Home 7/2 | Draw 12/5 | Away 4/5
Joe Townsend
Results have finally turned for Millwall, who are now unbeaten in five games, winning their last three.
The fact they've scored four and conceded just one goal in that run perhaps explains why prior to this point they found themselves on the wrong side of such fine margins. Neil Harris' team were previously the biggest outlier in the Championship, underperforming their position in the table by 15 places according to xG data, with their current position of seventh much more reflective of their performances.
At home Millwall have been especially strong (W4 D1 L2) and now meet a Leeds team who have drawn their last three away games.
The visitors are odds-on to win but the smart play is to cover both other results by taking the even money about MILLWALL OR DRAW on the double chance.
Five of the Lions' last six home league fixtures have seen them avoid defeat.
The low-event nature of their matches (nine of their 15 games in all competitions have involved one goal or fewer) combined with Leeds already playing out two goalless draws on the road this season also makes the 15/2 about NO GOALSCORER worth backing.
Crvena zvezda vs Barcelona
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
- TV: TNT Sports (Press red)
- Home 14/1 | Draw 13/2 | Away 1/7
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
INIGO MARTINEZ’s price TO SCORE ANYTIME has divided opinion of the bookmarkers.
Sky Bet offers the best price at 12/1, a price certainly worth a punt. Next best 11/1 is also worth taking but generally the bet is 9/1 and as short as 13/2 in places.
Why is there such disparity? I am not sure but I would have taken 10/1 even considering the defender has not netted in 31 La Liga appearances for Barcelona.
Martinez has notched up a domestic assist this term and averages 0.5 shots per game. On the continent, he opened his account with a goal against Young Boys, also setting one up, and averages a shot a game.
Barca have netted seven times from set pieces domestically and dead balls could be a way to get amongst the goals vs Crvena zvezda.
Stuttgart vs Atalanta
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
- TV: TNT Sports (Press red)
- Home 13/10 | Draw 11/4 | Away 17/10
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
Stuttgart have netted seven times from set-pieces in the Bundesliga this term, a tally only Barcelona can match in Europe’s top divisions.
The German side take on Atalanta on Wednesday and the Italians have shipped four of their 14 goals against from dead balls, it is almost enough to convince you to back a centre back to score at 22/1.
ANTHONY ROUAULT was touted when his side played Juventus and although he didn’t cover me in glory that evening (he didn’t have a shot) the Frenchman remains the value in the goalscorer market.
Rouault has had two shots in three Champions League appearances this term and with a career goals per 90 average of 0.06, he should be around 16/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME in midweek, some firms have him at 9/1.
Sparta Prague vs Brest
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
- TV: TNT Sports 8
- Home 11/8 | Draw 23/10 | Away 19/10
Tom Carnduff
I'm going to continue on the same path I have been when Brest have been playing in the past few weeks.
They have issues defending set-pieces and opposition defenders have contributed shots.
Moise Bombito was backed to strike for Nice at the weekend and he saw the best chance of the contest - that ranked at 0.47 xG and was given a 'Massive' tag in our shot map of the game.
It's a shame he couldn't strike for an 18/1 winner yet it continues to offer encouragement that a centre-back will eventually. This time, we're looking at Sparta Prague's ASGER SØRENSEN.
The Danish defender has three goals on his tally across all competitions this season with one coming in their defeat to Banik Ostrava last time out.
That contest also delivered a total of two shots, with a goal in the Champions League when they beat Shamrock Rovers in qualifying back in July.
With Brest conceding shots to two Nice centre-backs last time out, while Reims' duo combined for a total of four, Sparta should see chances to strike from set-pieces.
It should therefore benefit Sørensen who has now hit double figures for goals across 92 appearances for the club.
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (04/11/24)
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