Benoit Paire

Tennis betting tips: Winston-Salem Open preview

By Andy Schooler

Tennis

Wed August 25, 2021 · 4y ago

In the week before the US Open, the big names may have their eye off the ball in Winston-Salem – Andy Schooler has four tips from 28/1 to 40/1.

Tennis betting tips: Winston-Salem Open

1pt e.w. Steve Johnson at 33/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt e.w. Albert Ramos-Vinolas at 40/1 (general)

0.5pt e.w. Benoit Paire at 28/1 (bet365)

0.5pt e.w. Ilya Ivashka at 35/1 (BetVictor)

Winston-Salem Open

Winston-Salem, USA (outdoor hard)

As is usually the case, I’m happy to take on the bigger names in the draw in the week prior to a Grand Slam.

It’s certainly hard to envisage two-time US Open semi-finalist Pablo Carreno Busta going full pelt for the title at the Winston-Salem Open this week given what lies ahead over the next fortnight.

With conditions often hot, humid and very testing in New York, using up energy here doesn’t seem the most sensible ploy for a possible major title contender, who is the top seed this week.

Some of the other leading seeds can be overlooked for other reasons.

David Goffin played his first match since Halle in June last week (and lost to Guido Pella), while Marton Fucsovics is another who has only just returned to action for the first time since the grasscourt season – he also lost in the first round in Cincinnati.

Briton Dan Evans is 0-3 on the North American hardcourts this summer, while the record of Nick Kyrgios, the second favourite, is barely better. The Australian is 1-3 and also faces a tough opener against Andy Murray, who showed glimpses of his true ability in Cincinnati last week. The Briton also holds a 5-1 head-to-head record over Kyrgios.

The winner of that will face Frances Tiafoe in what is a tough section, which also includes second-seed Goffin.

Tiafoe (20/1) and Murray (28s) were both considered but this is a really tricky part of the draw to unravel and my preference is to look elsewhere.

I do think there’s a real chance of a juicy-priced winner and/or finalist this week and so I’m going to take a one-from-each-quarter approach.

Top pick is a man this column sided with at a giant price in Washington recently, STEVE JOHNSON.

The 300/1 about his chances there was frankly insulting and he certainly gave us a run for our money by reaching the quarter-finals before losing to the eventual champion Jannik Sinner. Sadly he’s nowhere near those odds this week but I do fancy his chances at a venue he’s gone well at in the past.

Johnson was the beaten finalist here in 2018 and last time the event was held, two years ago, he lost in the semis, a stage he also reached in 2015. Admittedly, the court surface has changed since – the DecoTurf ripped up and replaced by Laykold, as was also the case at the recent Masters tournaments in Toronto and Cincinnati.

Still, these are still conditions which suit should Johnson’s game – he’s been serving well and the slightly faster Laykold should help on that front.

He’s in a decent part of the draw with a qualifier up first before a meeting with Carlos Alcaraz. The Spaniard is a rising star but most of his good work so far has come on clay.

If the seedings play out, Fucsovics would follow and then Nikoloz Basilashvili in the quarter-finals. That looks a decent section for the American, who always performs best on home soil. It’s also very relevant that Johnson has performed in these weeks before Slams in the past.

As well as that run to the 2018 final here, Johnson was also champion in Nottingham in the week prior to Wimbledon in 2016.

In short, he’ll be giving it his all this week and there’s plenty to suggest he’s capable of going well.

Also in the bottom half, I’ll try a punt on ALBERT RAMOS-VINOLAS.

He’s not exactly a man you’d associate with potential success on a hardcourt – all of his ATP titles have come on clay – but the 11th seed beat Taylor Fritz in Cincinnati last week before pushing Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini to 7-5 in the third set.

The week before he tested Marin Cilic, again forcing a deciding set.

Despite his clay prowess, Ramos-Vinolas has shown his ability is faster conditions. He’s got a strong record at altitude on the clay, where the ball travels faster, and perhaps he’s managed to transfer those skills to the faster Laykold courts.

It’s worth noting his only previous hardcourt final came in Chengdu, which is regarded as one of the quickest hardcourt venues on the ATP Tour.

I did consider John Millman in this part of the draw – the pair could meet in the last 16 – but the Australian pulled out of Cincinnati with a foot injury last week. That sets alarm bells ringing with any recurrence almost certain to result in a withdrawal given what’s coming next week.

All things considered, it’s not that difficult to envisage Ramos-Vinolas reaching the last eight where he would face the winner of that Tiafoe/Kyrgios/Murray/Goffin section.

Tiafoe is the man I like most at the prices there – he’s a 20/1 shot – but as already suggested, it’s hard to know who will come through. There’s also a chance that the man who does progress has already played plenty of tennis – a factor that is always in the back of the mind in a week such as this.

Take two more from other half of the draw

Up in the top half, it may be worth throwing a few beans on BENOIT PAIRE.

Yes, we all know the Frenchman’s penchant for a brain-fade, lack of effort etc, but hear me out.

Last week was the best I’ve seen the three-time ATP title winner play post-COVID lockdown.

He beat Denis Shapovalov and John Isner as he progressed to the quarter-finals where he lost a close contest in three sets to eventual finalist Andrey Rublev. It was the sort of form which took him into the world’s top 20 a few years ago.

I was also encouraged by his relaxed nature in front of the TV cameras when he spoke to the Tennis Channel, an interview in which he again emphasised how much he disliked the ‘bubble’ life of the tour and playing in front of empty stadia.

That’s changed now and he seemed to feed off the crowd’s energy in Ohio.

One of Paire’s previous titles came in the week before a Slam (Lyon in 2019), while he also made the final here that year, and I’m intrigued to see how he goes this week.

Intrigued enough to side with him at 28/1, albeit to small stakes. It is Paire after all.

Finally, in the top quarter I’ll also roll the dice with ILYA IVASHKA at a big price. The Belarusian is a player who’s caught the eye at times in 2021 without ever really putting a big run together. This week provides another opportunity.

He beat Grigor Dimitrov in Washington a few weeks ago, while during the grasscourt campaign he made the last 16 of Wimbledon.

On the clay, Ivashka took a set off Rafael Nadal in Barcelona and also made the semis in Munich, while on the Miami hardcourts back in March, he lost a tight tussle with Shapovalov in the final set.

Plenty of his 2021 numbers are pretty good too. He’s 32nd for percentage of service games won, and 30th for return games won. Both figures are well above his ranking of 67 – and suggest he’ll be climbing higher now the rankings have just started to unlock with points gained in 2019 starting to drop off.

The seeds Ivashka is due to face before the semis here are Marin Cilic, Jan-Lennard Struff and Carreno Busta.

Doubtless Cilic could win – he was highlighted in last week’s column but again flopped when the pressure was turned up. You never really know what you’ll get with the Croat, so I’ll take him on this week.

Struff has lost both matches since his return to the North American hardcourts, while I’ve already said why I’m prepared to swerve PCB this week.

With few US Open expectations, Ivashka has little reason to hold back this week. Indeed, he’s another to have made a final in the week before a Slam, albeit his was at Challenger level in the days before the 2019 Australian Open.

Of course it’s a long shot, but one which does have potential.

Published at 1025 BST on 22/08/21

Tennis betting tips: Winston-Salem Open preview

Tennis betting tips: Winston-Salem Open

Winston-Salem Open

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