Our tennis man Andy Schooler brings you his best bets for this week’s ATP tournaments in Gijon and Florence.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
1pt e.w. Dominic Thiem in the Gijon Open at 12/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt e.w. Constant Lestienne in the Gijon Open at 33/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Lorenzo Sonego in the Unicredit Firenze Open at 18/1 (Unibet)
0.5pt e.w. Tim van Rijthoven in the Unicredit Firenze Open at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Gijon Open
- Gijon, Spain (indoor hard)
Sorry to kick-off with what sounds like an excuse, but this looks a tricky week for punters on the ATP Tour.
We’d usually be in Shanghai this week but with China off the calendar this season, we’ve instead got two new events in Gijon and Florence (see below).
That means bettors are deprived of some key information – there’s no ‘course form’ to look at and neither can they be sure what the conditions will be like.
Here in Gijon, what we do know is that they are playing on an indoor Greenset hardcourt and a look at qualifying suggests this will be the slower of the two events this week.
That matches up with the choice of ball – the Head Tour XT is designed to be slower than its Head Tour counterpart.
It’s also worth remembering that there are now just four weeks remaining for players to nail down spots in the ATP Finals field.
Three of those remain up for grabs and two players in this field have a serious chance of securing them – Andrey Rublev and Pablo Carreno Busta.
Rublev sits sixth in the ‘Race to Turin’ following last week’s semi-final run in Astana and is an understandable favourite here.
As regular readers will know, we backed him each-way last week and so it was galling to see him lose from a set up (and heavily odds-on in play) against Stefanos Tsitsipas.
He was, in fact, one of three semi-finalists (from three tips) last week and how that preview didn’t make a profit, I still don’t know.
Anyway, on we go and frankly I’m not convinced this is a week to get with Rublev.
Clearly he’s a much shorter price but notably there’s an awkward opening encounter looming.
Ilya Ivashka has been playing pretty well and likes indoor conditions.
Rublev has won both previous encounters (both indoors) but he’s coming down from a fair altitude in Astana to sea level for this contest and won’t have too long to adapt.
I not going for Rublev at 3/1 but neither do I like Ivashka’s price (16/1) enough to get involved with the Belarusian.
I’m also happy to take on Carreno Busta.
He has only one indoor title on his CV and that came six years ago.
The Spaniard does at least have the motivation – he’s in his homeland and could do with the 250 points in order to push up that ‘Race to Turin’ list.
Yet he’s played only one match since the US Open and lost it – to our 40/1 winner in Sofia, Marc-Andrea Huesler.
I prefer to take the top two seeds on and will do so with DOMINIC THIEM and CONSTANT LESTIENNE.
Thiem is in the top half with Rublev and the former world number three has been gradually improving in recent times as he looks to return to the top of the game following wrist surgery last year.
Since heading indoors, he’s reached a Challenger final in Rennes, lost in round two of Metz to Hubert Hurkacz and then at the same stage in Tel Aviv to Marin Cilic.
Those are a couple of tough draws but the Austrian has got luckier in Gijon where the seeds in his quarter are Albert Ramos-Vinolas and Francisco Cerundolo, two players who much prefer the clay under their feet.
I think this offers a really good opportunity for Thiem to gain real momentum and reach the latter stages.
With Rublev lurking, perhaps this screams another semi-final loser but, as I’ve said, I’m not totally convinced by the Russian this week and so backing Thiem to small stakes at 12/1 looks worthwhile.
In the bottom half, Lestienne is another whose form suggests greater things may be possible.
The Frenchman made the last eight in San Diego and, after heading indoors, reached the semis in Tel Aviv where seeds Adrian Mannarino and Maxime Cressy were among his victims.
Challenger Tour followers may not have been that surprised given Lestienne has won three hardcourt titles at second-tier level since Wimbledon.
In short, the 30-year-old is on a roll. He’s at a career-high in the rankings and looks pretty well drawn.
The seeds in this half are Carreno Busta, Roberto Bautista Agut (who won two games against Daniil Medvedev last week), Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (beaten in round one by Pavel Kotov in Astana) and Seba Baez (playing his first match since the US Open and not a hardcourt fan).
Lestienne will open against Baez before a potential meeting with compatriot Arthur Rinderknech, whose serve won’t get as much success here than other venues.
33/1 looks a fair, each-way price.
Preview posted 1705 BST on 09/10/22
UniCredit Firenze Open
- Florence, Italy (indoor hard)
As suggested above, it looks faster in Florence (Firenze to our Italian friends) than Gijon, even though they are still on Greenset at the Palazzo Wanny.
Qualifying data certainly suggests so with plenty of aces hit and a lots of high figures in the percentage of first-serve-points-won category.
I’ve not had it confirmed, but this could well be the same surface used for last year’s ATP Finals in nearby Turin.
A big-serving, attacking player is the sort of profile I’m looking for and I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see Matteo Berrettini justify favouritism this week.
The Italian needs a strong finish to the season if he’s to reach those ATP Finals in his homeland and I’m sure he’ll have that as an aim in the final month of the regular campaign.
However, he has played just the one match – at the Laver Cup – since the US Open and so the question is whether there’s any value in backing him at 3/1.
As many of you will know, I’m not a big favourite backer and I’m prepared to swerve and instead take a chance on qualifier TIM VAN RIJTHOVEN.
He’s very much a player who goes well in slick conditions, as we found out in Den Bosch during the grasscourt season where he delivered a stunning success, beating Felix Auger-Aliassime and Daniil Medvedev back-to-back.
He was a Challenger Tour runner-up indoors earlier this season in Forli, just a couple of hours from this venue, one at which he’s already settled in nicely.
The Dutchman went unbroken in his two qualifiers, slamming down 34 aces and winning 86% of points behind his first serve.
Admittedly, opposition was limited but those are very good numbers and I can see him troubling better players once the main draw gets under way, starting with Mikael Ymer.
I don’t think he’ll fear Tallon Griekspoor or Aslan Karatsev in round two with Berrettini possibly awaiting in a serve-dominated quarter-final.
To me, van Rijthoven looks big at 40/1 – and there’s every chance someone goes a bit bigger once all firms have added the qualifiers to their market.
In the top half, I’m usually happy to oppose Felix Auger-Aliassime at a short price and this week is no exception.
The Canadian has won just one ATP title in his career to date which hardly fills you with confidence when considering him at 7/2.
And last week he was again disappointing his backers with a first-round defeat to Roberto Bautista Agut in Astana.
Here, his first match against Marton Fucsovics or Oscar Otte seems unlikely to be a cakewalk in these conditions, while San Diego champion Brandon Nakashima is also in his quarter.
I’ll instead turn to LORENZO SONEGO.
He’s another proven performer on the faster surfaces – his maiden ATP crown came on the grass of Antalya.
Indoors, he was a finalist in Vienna in 2020 but most encouraging was last month’s triumph in Metz where he beat three seeds including Hubert Hurkacz and Alexander Bublik.
Last time out he lost in the second round in Sofia to Holger Rune but that’s a defeat that can be forgiven given it came just a few days after that Metz effort.
He’s rested up since and should be ready to give his all in front of a home crowd.
Compatriot Lorenzo Musetti and American Jenson Brooksby are the seeds in the second quarter but neither is at his best indoors.
Sonego, at 18/1, makes the staking plan.
Preview posted 1910 BST on 09/10/22
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