Our Andy Schooler has 7/1, 18/1 and 50/1 picks for this week’s ATP Tour action in Sydney and Adelaide.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
2pts win Dan Evans in the Sydney Classic at 7/1 (BetVictor)
0.5pt e.w. Jordan Thompson in the Sydney Classic at 50/1 (BetVictor)
1pt e.w. Botic van de Zandschulp in the Adelaide International 2 at 18/1 (bet365)
Sydney Classic
Sydney, Australia (outdoor hard)
Long-standing readers of this column will know that it’s rare for me to be particularly confident about one of the tournament favourites.
But such is the form of DAN EVANS that I feel he does have a great chance of success this week.
Evans started the season here in Sydney last week, helping Great Britain perform admirably in the ATP Cup team competition.
They narrowly failed to reach the knockout stage but Evans literally did all he could to make that happen, winning all five rubbers he was selected for.
They included three singles, all of which were achieved in straight sets. The players beaten were Jan-Lennard Struff, Denis Shapovalov and John Isner. The latter two were both ranked higher than Evans, who is the third seed this week with only Aslan Karatsev and Nikoloz Basilashvili above him.
The Briton looked to be playing towards the top end of his level at the ATP Cup and notably there looked to be an improvement in his backhand.
Evans is a player who has always used the slice well off that wing but he hit over more balls than usual last week and if that’s shot he’s becoming more happy to use, it’s going to be another good weapon for a player who does like to get on the front foot.
Significantly, Evans has been to the final in Sydney in this week of the season before – back in 2017 – while last year he won in the week prior to the Australian Open, albeit that event was in Melbourne.
Regardless, that’s strong form in this part of the world at this time of year and he looks highly likely to enter proceedings this week with confidence sky high.
This column backed Evans to win in Melbourne last year at a rather tasty 33/1. Sadly we’re not getting anywhere near that this time around but 7/1 still looks good, as long as you are prepared to take on board the usual risk that this week brings.
We’ve seen it countless times (and I’ve certainly written about it on many occasions) that players can easily withdraw mid-tournament in the week before a Grand Slam.
A minor physical niggle can be enough for a cautious approach to be taken with plenty of ranking points and money, not to mention potential glory, on offer next week in Melbourne.
There’s also the fatigue factor – how badly you players want matches this week with (hopefully) two more to come immediately afterwards?
However, I’m not too worried about Evans’ position on this front.
He has a first-round bye so will only play four matches even he makes the final, while he hardly over-extended himself last week with a series of short contests, the last of which was on Thursday.
His first match here won’t be until Tuesday at the earliest so he’s had plenty of time to rest up and with form good, I’m pretty sure he’ll be going all out to win his second ATP title.
The draw looks decent enough with Alexei Popyrin or Pedro Martinez, yet to play singles this year, up first.
Dusan Lajovic is due to be the first seed faced, although he endured a pretty miserable ATP Cup, losing all three singles and picking up an injury in the process.
Top seed Karatsev, who performed so well in Australia last year, is Evans’ slated semi-final foe. He’ll want matches under his belt this week having missed the ATP Cup following a positive COVID test.
Yet you wonder if that will leave any lasting effects and he looks a wobbly favourite this week.
The bottom half looks even weaker with the seeds all looking opposable.
Basilashvili is another who suffered injury at the ATP Cup, where he lost both matches played, while fourth seed Reilly Opelka was beaten in his opening match at the Melbourne Summer Set tournament.
David Goffin did likewise, while Fabio Fognini was only a hitting partner and cheerleader at the ATP Cup, failing to take to the match court.
There’s a good chance he’ll be coming in undercooked and with Nick Kyrgios his first-round opponent, it’s not hard to envisage the Italian falling early.
It’s tempting to back Kyrgios again.
I put him up last week but it was a case of stakes returned when he pulled out prior to his first match, citing his asthma problems. It would be one of those annoying moments for him to deliver a week late.
A winner in Brisbane in 2018, Kyrgios is out at 14/1 in what is a better field this week and if he’s now OK, that’s a price which could be made to look big.
But Kyrgios didn’t sound too convinced everything would be OK when he spoke about returning to court to “see how I feel and see if there’s any improvement” so there are clearly some physical worries for his backers - and don’t get me started on what his mental state might be.
I’ll overlook him for now and turn instead to his Australian compatriot, JORDAN THOMPSON, who simply looks too big at 50/1.
He plays American Marcos Giron, beaten by Ricardas Berankis in Melbourne last week, first up and after that his path could send him towards the service bombs of Opelka and Kyrgios.
However, his ability to deal with the big servers is an aspect of Thompson I like this week.
He’s unlikely to be blown away by either man.
The Aussie won his only previous match with Opelka, leads Ivo Karlovic 3-1 in their career head-to-head and while he trails John Isner 3-1, he won their most recent contest and kept other close.
Also, his only meeting with Alex Zverev only saw him edged out in a final-set tie-break, while a previous clash with Kyrgios on the slick courts of Wimbledon went to a fifth set.
Hardcourts are very much Thompson’s domain and it was interesting to see Kyrgios comment recently that he expects his some-time training partner to enjoy a strong 2022.
Last week Thompson opened his season by losing in the second round in Melbourne, going down in three sets to Emil Ruusuvuori, who went on to make the semis.
As for this week last season (the one before the Australian Open), Thompson produced a good effort to win three matches and reach the last eight in Melbourne. He was also a quarter-finalist here in 2019.
As a Sydneysider, Thompson will get great support at the Ken Rosewall Arena and the outside courts of the Sydney Olympic Park Tennis Centre. The indoor Qudos Bank Arena, is use during the ATP Cup, does not feature this week.
In what looks a weak half of the draw, I’ll try a small punt each way on Thompson.
Adelaide International 2
Adelaide, Australia (outdoor hard)
This is the second of two Adelaide International tournaments taking place this year and it’s no surprise to see that many in the field also played the first one last week.
That’s the case with three of the top four seeds, Gael Monfils, Karen Khachanov and Marin Cilic, all of whom went deep in that event.
Cilic, a pick of this column, made the last four, while at time of writing Monfils and Khachanov are contesting the final and you wonder how much they will want to push themselves this week, especially Monfils, whose injury history is wretched.
It would be no surprise at all to see any those players withdraw and with none bigger than 13/2, I can’t be siding with them.
John Isner is the ‘odd man out’, the second seed having opened his season at the ATP Cup where he won only one of his three singles matches.
Isner’s best days may well be behind him now but his huge serve will usually keep him competitive, and I’m sure he’ll have his backers at 12/1.
I won’t be among them though.
Conditions have been pretty fast in the Adelaide heat which will aid the American’s serve but he’s admitted in the past he likes the ball coming off the court slower and higher – as it does in Indian Wells – so it may be a bit fast for him in terms of groundstrokes.
Fifth seed Lloyd Harris is a potential alternative.
He should like the conditions – he certainly did when making the final here two years ago - but we’re again wondering about his fitness given the South African pulled out of last week’s Melbourne Summer Set event.
That cloud of doubt is enough to put me off backing him at 12/1.
Instead I’m going to have a go with BOTIC VAN DE ZANDSCHULP, the Dutchman who has made great strides over the past year, particularly on hardcourts.
At the start of the season, he shone a light on his ability with a surprise run to the last eight in Melbourne, beating Opelka before losing to Khachanov in three sets – the duo could meet in the semis here.
Van de Zandschulp famously went on to qualify for all four Grand Slam tournaments, really writing the headlines at the US Open where he went on to reach the quarter-finals of the main draw, beating top-15 stars Casper Ruud and Diego Schwartzman along the way.
He then rounded off the season with three top-50 wins indoors, including a straight-sets victory over Andrey Rublev in St Petersburg where he reached the semis.
The 6ft 3in star looked a good nick here last week when he held two match points for a place in the last four before losing to Grigor Dimitrov.
The serve is a major weapon and produced some decent numbers last week.
Van de Zandschulp is in the same quarter of the draw as Monfils but, as I wrote earlier, it’s not difficult to envisage this section opening up.
The 18/1 shot has the tools to deliver.
Published at 0855 GMT on 09/01/21
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.