Why has Willie Mullins never trained the winner of a Cheltenham Festival handicap chase?

By Lewis Tomlinson

Horse Racing

Wed February 18, 2026 · 2h ago

It goes without saying that there isn’t much Willie Mullins hasn’t achieved in horse racing.

19 trainers’ titles in Ireland, along with the last two in Britain. Grade Ones in every corner of the globe. Dominance at Del Mar and Flemington, Neom and Nakayama. Success at Royal Ascot, in the Sky Bet Ebor and a Randox Grand National 1-2-3. There’s barely a corner of a racing world that hasn’t had its prizes plundered by the Closutton maestro.

Cheltenham, though, is the track that will always be most associated with Mullins. Since training and riding his first Festival winner, Wither Or Which in the 1996 Champion Bumper, another 112 have followed.

Five Champion Hurdles, four Gold Cups and a brace each of the Champion Chase and the Stayers’ Hurdles, not to mention eight Supremes, six Arkles and as many Ryanairs. There’s a not a showpiece race at the Festival than doesn’t have W. P. Mullins engraved on its roll of honour.

So ingenious has the Cheltenham campaigning of his horses been in recent years that not one, but two, criteria changes have been adopted by the BHA as a direct result of his innovation - apologies to Mr Pipe and Windbeneathmywings, there’ll be no more hurdling debutants lining up at Prestbury Park.

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And yet, for all of Mullins’ skilful preparation and intelligent race planning, he’s still to win a Festival handicap chase. It’s a strange anomaly given his otherwise impeccable record in mid-March.

Certainly, it’d be absurd to suggest that handling top-end handicap chasers is a weapon missing in Mullins’ training armoury, with multiple Grand Nationals at Aintree, Fairyhouse and Ayr, the Thyestes, the Troytown, the bet365 Gold Cup and Coral Gold Cup all in the trophy cabinet.

And his handicap hurdle record at the Festival is just as strong as one would be expect, with 18 winners in such races – though the Pertemps remains one of the handful of Cheltenham contests omitted from the Mullins CV.

So, is there any underlying rhyme or reason as to why Willie Mullins – the man who has won everything else there is to win – hasn’t yet been able to land a handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival? Is it pure variance, bad luck, or should punters be somewhat sceptical of following in the Mullins battalion in these races?

The data behind the Mullins blank

Since saddling his first Festival handicap chase representative - the ironically named Its Time For A Win to an honourable third in the 2000 Plate - Mullins has sent out a further 53 across the past quarter of a century.

Perhaps most tellingly, only six of these have been sent off at a BSP shorter than 10. For all the quality, the strength in depth in his yard, Mullins very rarely sends out a well-fancied runner in a Cheltenham handicap chase. In comparison, there have been twice as many outsiders carrying a BSP of 40 or higher.

I may well be somewhat pocket talking here, but to my mind the most notable defeat of those fancied runners would be that of Dinoblue, beaten favourite when runner-up in the 2023 Grand Annual.

Not often will a bona-fide Grade One performer be able to sneak into a handicap from an opening mark of 140 (140!), and though a complete howler at the last didn’t help her cause, the balance seemed to be swinging in favour of the winner, and fellow unexposed mare Maskada, when that error came. Close, but not close enough.

It's worth noting that in the two years since Dinoblue’s second, the other two fancied Mullins handicap chasers have also carried the colours of JP McManus.

Saint Roi, a Grade One winning hurdler, and Meetingofthewaters were both very low-mileage in handicap chases, the former having just his second outing in such company, with the latter effectively doing the same, having unseated at the first at the DRF following on from landing the Paddy Power on handicap debut.

Whilst plots with such unexposed types would be part of the tried and test modus operandi for Mullins with inexperienced hurdlers – Saint Roi himself being a prime example, winning the County on just his fourth start over timber - the same tactic over fences would be more associated with the owner’s playbook rather than that of the trainer. Gold Cup winner in the Kim Muir anyone?

Otherwise, it’s fair to say not much has gone to plan for the Closutton cohort. Scotsirish unfortunately suffered a serious injury, the complicated soul that is Mr Incredible hit 1.51 in-running before pulling out one of his dirty tricks and wandering all over the Cheltenham hill, whilst Blood Cotil produced such a diabolical display of jumping that he was admonished with an incredibly rare “xx” by Timeform.

Speaking of poor jumping, an alarmingly high proportion of Mullins’ handicap chasers have received the unwanted Timeform “x” for their display at the Festival – a staggering 33% producing a round of jumping the Timeform reporters have felt significantly hindered their performance.

The yard also possesses a higher fall/unseat percentage of across all chasers at the Festival than that of fellow powerhouse trainers Elliott, Nicholls, Skelton and Henderson.

It was another Mullins/Ricci charge, Pylonthepressure, that was responsible for the single worst jumping display at Cheltenham I can recall when a distant fifth in the 2018 National Hunt Chase. Katie Walsh deserved medals for getting him around that day, whilst one-time leading hunter chaser Billaway springs to mind as another Festival regular for the yard to regularly find issue with the stiff Cheltenham fences.

Paul Townend - very rarely rides in Cheltenham handicap chases

With this considered, it’s not quite as surprising as it may first appear that Mullins’ first-choice jockey is scarcely seen in these handicap chases.

Ruby Walsh had just the four spins, whilst Paul Townend’s last mount came before Covid. Of course, that’s not to say these leading jockeys are sitting out in favour of no-names, ownership retainers meaning that Mark Walsh and Daryl Jacob have taken multiple rides in said races for Mullins, whilst the conditions of the Kim Muir mean that Patrick is the man for the job there, but it’s a fair assumption that competitors at the level of Walsh and Townend would be content to leave the weighing so comparably rarely if they felt they were missing out on potential Festival winners.

Given that both tracks at Prestbury Park usually favour those that adopt a handy pitch, it’s also pertinent to mention how the Mullins handicappers have been ridden at the Festival.

Almost half have received a Timeform IPS of 4 or 5 – indicating they were held up or raced off the pace - whilst only eight received a 1 or 2, those positions given to front-runners and those that raced prominently. It’s not a major point, but I thought it was interesting that, whether by design or otherwise, a fair chunk came in for rides that, in theory, have put them at a disadvantage.

So when will Willie Mullins win a Festival handicap chase?

Since that first handicap chase runner, the Ultima, Plate, Grand Annual and Kim Muir have have remained as ever present prizes, whilst the Cross Country has held handicap status at various points – and does so again after a nearly a decade as a conditions event.

Include the new-look National Hunt Chase and the addition the programme of the Jack Richards - a relative of the now-discontinued Centenary, The Midnight Club’s third in 2010 as close to Willie came there, there’s never been a greater range of opportunities for Mullins to source a chaser that can break this hoodoo.

In fact, five of the six Mullins-trained handicap chasers at last season’s Festival came in the “new” novice events - the outlier being Kim Muir third Sa Majeste, a familiar handicap debutant carrying the green and gold.

More so than most trainers, Mullins has tended to see the Festival Graded races as fact-finding missions to dictate future targets, helping to establish a pecking order amongst his team for the end of season Festivals; in the past decade alone, he’s saddled 25 runners sent off at a double-figure SP in these top-level races, including longshots at odds of 22/1 or bigger in the The Real Whacker’s Broadway.

That’s not to say these have all been no-hopers, Lecky Watson landing that race at 20/1 last season, but it’d be fair comment to suggest plenty of those were undoubtedly above their paygrade at the very top level and would have had greater chance of making an impact in a handicap, whether that be against fellow novices or against more experienced rivals.

Lecky Watson on his way to winning the Brown Advisory

Take Mullins’ record in the Quinnbet Novice Handicap Chase at the Punchestown Festival as an example; a valuable event over 2m4f, Willie has won ten of the 17 renewals since the race’s inauguration, with half of those winners having been beaten in Graded company at Cheltenham the preceding month. El Barra (140), Asterion Forlonge (151), Real Steel (151), Kemboy (147, though he was having just his third chase start at Cheltenham) and Scotsirish (135) all proved themselves well-treated from their early marks having come up short against the cream of the crop.

Kilcruit skipped Cheltenham altogether, having been beaten in two Grade Ones following on from a winning chase debut, and acquired a Timeform rating of 159 – equivalent to that achieved by Golden Miller winner Stage Star a month earlier - when routing his opposition from the front in 2023; it’s hard to think he wouldn’t have been competitive in a Festival handicap from an opening mark of 148.

It's not earth-shattering analysis that novices, likelier to be unexposed or progressive, have a good record in open Festival handicaps. 19 of the 40 across the past decade have gone the way of a novice, but pitching an inexperienced, but potentially thrown-in chaser, in against battle-hardened campaigners just isn’t a method Mullins seems to be too keen on.

Even with senior chasers, Mullins seems more inclined to have a swing at a championship race than ask one of his charges to make their class edge pay under a big weight in a handicap; Total Recall, for example, remained on an upward curve and still held a BHA mark of 156 when sent for a tilt at Gold Cup off the back of his Hennessy win.

Younger brigade take centre stage this time

I wouldn’t rule out the repackaged handicaps triggering a pivot in the placement of some of Mullins’ novices at Cheltenham and it’s noteworthy that the 11 individual horses to hold at least one handicap entry at this year’s Festival all retain novice status. There’s not a single senior handicap chaser that’ll run for Willie at Cheltenham this year.

The Jack Richards certainly appeals as a race that, on paper, would’ve fit the bill for many a Closutton inmate over the years and it’s unsurprising that that Mullins’ nine-strong entry in that race this season outnumbers those in the remaining handicaps combined.

The National Hunt Chase was a race Willie was often keen to target in its previous form as an amateur race, and Mullins did send out subsequent Scottish National hero Captain Cody in a Patrick-less renewal last season, albeit I wonder this year’s proximity to the vastly more valuable Irish National may lead to some trainers keeping their powder dry ahead of Fairyhouse.

With three potential runners, it’d nevertheless be a shock if Mullins was absent from the marathon event this year, especially given that Argento Boy and Joystick – both 10/1 shots – the shortest-priced of all handicap entries for the yard three weeks out. The pair are also entered, at very long odds, in the Brown Advisory, though history tells us the likelihood of victory perhaps doesn’t dictate the target for these types as much as it may do for other yards.

Things are rather thin on the ground in the open handicaps. In each of those over the regulation fences, Willie is represented by just a single entrant, and they all hold other options within novice company. Gold Dancer (Ultima), O’Moore Park (Plate) and Western Diego (Grand Annual), are possibilities in the Jack Richards, whilst Road To Home (Kim Muir) is the final member of the trio in the National Hunt Chase.

And whilst the Cross Country was a contest the Mullins brigade often arrived mob-handed prior its reinvention as a conditions race - Shakervilz’s four-length second in 2013 actually the closest as Willie has come to breaking this particular duck - but numbers dwindled in the past decade and he’s absent from the entries again this time, meaning he’ll be unrepresented in both renewals since the race reverted to handicap status.

So, on paper, it doesn’t look an obvious year for this handicap hoodoo to come to an end, Willie set to be typically represented by more outsiders than fancied runners.

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Aspects of this winless spell, primarily Mullins’ propensity to take a more patient approach with those who become interesting handicappers, are undoubtedly intentional, though others, such as the absurd proportion of indifferent jumping displays from those went to the Festival as serious contenders, would be unwanted and frustrating for all connected. It’s also worth mentioning that, with 54 runners in races that usually have fields of 20 or more, one or two would be expected on a basic winners to runners metric; zero isn’t actually too significant of an underperformance.

Of course, legacies of elite competitors are rarely defined, or detracted, by what they failed to win. Imagine attempting to knock Thierry Henry for retiring without a Milk Cup medal, or Tiger Woods for missing the cut in the 2005 Walt Disney World Classic on the back of winning the Masters and the Open earlier that year.

Priorities are obviously, understandably elsewhere for Mullins. Winning a Kim Muir would be the highlight of the season for many a trainer; for the champion, it’d be a disappointment if that was the highlight of his Thursday.

It’s an itch, though, that he would surely like to scratch at some point. That elusive handicap chase victory may have to come from left-field if it’s to happen in 2026, but if there’s one thing anyone with any knowledge of the Cheltenham Festival knows, it’s to never, ever discount W. P. Mullins.

Why has Willie Mullins never trained the winner of a Cheltenham Festival handicap chase?

The data behind the Mullins blank

So when will Willie Mullins win a Festival handicap chase?

Younger brigade take centre stage this time

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