Where to start when tasked with trying to pinpoint the more likely champion juveniles of 2025 only part-way through July?
I’d typically be a bit reticent when it comes to offering such suggestions at this time of year as the whole landscape can change very quickly. Just think back to last summer and a horse like Lake Victoria, who ended up being the best filly around, only made her debut on June 28 at the Irish Derby meeting, so while it seems unlikely given what we’ve already witnessed in the past couple of months, there’s still a chance the eventual leading juveniles might not yet even have run in the Group races by this stage.
In fact, I think I’ve identified one who fits perfectly into that mould.
That teaser aside, Charles Darwin is obviously well on his way to being the top dog in the sprint ranks, having been mightily impressive in the Norfolk Stakes, while his stablemate Gstaad bolted up when making it two from two in the Coventry despite reportedly only being a late stand-in for the sidelined Albert Einstein, who won both starts in May and already tops the betting with most firms for the 2000 Guineas and the Derby next year.
The recent Superlative Stakes on Newmarket’s July Course arguably raised more questions than it did answers but Aidan O’Brien – who trains the three aforementioned colts – appeared perfectly happy with Italy’s luckless run in second as he can now go into a Group 2 on home turf (most likely the Futurity Stakes) without a penalty, before his sights are inevitably raised to the highest level later in the year.
Italy looks one of the stars of the ‘second wave’ of Ballydoyle two-year-olds this year then and I wouldn’t be at all surprised were he to reverse Superlative form with Charlie Appleby’s Saba Desert should their paths cross again in the autumn. Venetian Lace, the one who caused the issues when veering across the track late on at Newmarket, isn't one to be giving up on either if you listen to trainer Charlie Johnston, who is adamant his filly will be top-class when learning to run in a straight line.
Back to the speedier types briefly and a couple of quality markers were laid down this week, firstly the Appleby-trained Wise Approach, runner-up to Charlies Darwin at Ascot and a seriously impressive winner eased to Listed level at Newbury on Friday.
William Buick seemed happy not to give too much away when interviewed by Matt Chapman on Sky Sports Racing afterwards but the jockey kept stressing that the son of Mehmas was still developing and would go on improving throughout the rest of the year. So perhaps the Godolphin camp wouldn’t be totally against another shot at Charles Darwin in a Middle Park, for instance, especially as they were drawn on opposite sides of the track in the Norfolk.
The Gimcrack might reveal more when it comes to Wise Approach’s strengths and possible weaknesses - he was still very much on his toes before this week’s race and York’s unique preliminaries may not have served him all that well when only fourth there at the Dante Festival - but he could hardly have been more authoritative in dispatching the Sheikh Obaid pair of Rock On Thunder (Kevin Ryan) and Amorim (George Boughey) with a wicked turn of foot at Newbury.
Then came True Love at the Curragh on Saturday, the filly becoming O’Brien’s 15th winner of the GAIN Railway Stakes over six furlongs. That she was also the first female winner of the Railway for 31 years speaks volumes and she looks like being very close to old rival Gstaad (Timeform 111p), who beat her three-quarters of a length at Navan in May, ratings-wise following reassessment.
What about the 'third wave' from Ballydoyle? That is, the later-maturing types who are bred to come into their own deep into the year and over 10 and 12 furlongs as three-year-olds.
Constitution River is already third in the Derby betting after just missing out on his debut at Newmarket’s July Festival, which tells you all you need to know about the regard in which he must be held, while Dorset beat subsequent fellow Curragh maiden winner Benvenuto Cellini in the seven-furlong colts’ maiden on day one of the Irish Derby meeting (that June 28 date popping up again).
The €400,000 purchase Dorset – a son of Wootton Bassett out of Snowflakes, herself a full-sister to Winter - also had Saturday’s Curragh maiden winner New Zealand back in the field when breaking his duck at the second time of asking and he looks like returning to action this week in Leopardstown's Tyros Stakes.
Also engaged in the Tyros, a race his trainer has won 16 times before but had to settle for second (and third) last year, is the colt I’d consider one of the most exciting long-term prospects in his stable – Daytona, who is 25/1 for Epsom with Ladbrokes and Coral.
Another by Wootton Bassett, he’s out of Listed-winning Motivator mare Detailed, a relative of four-time Group 1 winner Sendawar, and already looks really classy himself (Timeform 106p) having followed up his Gowran debut win with a striking effort in the inaugural Pat Smullen Stakes at Naas earlier this month (replay below).
It almost goes without saying that there are also several fascinating British-based colts and fillies who seem likely to enhance their profiles as the leaves start to fall this year, not least Karl Burke's Venetian Sun who deserves a proper mention with the likes of the Moyglare and Fillies' Mile in mind.
Unbeaten Chesham winner Humidity (Andrew Balding, Wathnan Racing) and the unlucky Sandown runner-up Publish (John & Thady Gosden, Juddmonte) are highly promising in their own right but when O’Brien juveniles are winning their first two starts and yet still looking as raw and unfurnished as Daytona, you just know the future is bright.
It was publicly mooted after his most recent win a couple of weeks ago and I'd imagine he could be prepared for something like the KPMG Champions Juvenile at the Irish Champions Festival in mid-September.
So when asked to look for a potential champion juvenile, you may find that occasionally the clue is in the question.
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